2007: Apple is not a phone company!
2010: Apple is not a tablet company!
2015: Apple is not a watch company!
2019: Apple is not a car company!
Spotting a pattern here? Apple is not anything... until it is.
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I have a theory...
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2007: Apple is not a phone company!
2010: Apple is not a tablet company!
2015: Apple is not a watch company!
2019: Apple is not a car company!
Spotting a pattern here? Apple is not anything... until it is.
The Watch will have more and more sensors. The sensors will be more and more advanced. Hence the need for more and more CPU power to analyze data. The ultimate Apple Watch will be a personal doctor on your wrist. The one that not only predict illness but prevent it.
So there your nice theory goes.
So there your nice theory goes.
I would say if anything stays the same it will be the design not the electronics. People will feel much better spending that much money on an accessory if it is still going to look the same as the one several years down the line. The Edition owners want to flaunt their wealth by showing that they can buy a $10000+ disposable device, but for everyone else they probably want something they can keep for awhile and still have looking current.
You missed the point of the post you replied to. It correctly stated that Apple isn't a jewelry store, not that it isn't a watch company. The vast majority of watch manufacturers do not sell their watches as face only, and Apple is no exception. In a jewelry store, however, they may allow you to mix and match the face and band.
The functionality is that the Watch is merely a dumb terminal offloading most of the things a person does with it to the phone. In that regard, as long as the bluetooth standards and wifi standards remain relevant, there's no reason that can't keep happening on an original Watch for many years down the road, regardless of the additional improvements in hardware to newer models.
Where this is all going to change is when the watch becomes more autonomous, and even completely replaces the iPhone. At some point when the software is rewritten to accommodate that device, the earlier devices will be left behind, though they should continue to work as they always did paired with an iPhone, just like my original iPhone works the same as it always did. Apple just cut it off from iCloud. And in that sense, it's not Apple that really left my original iPhone behind, it's the developers who stopped updating apps, nor do they offer any new apps which are compatible.
Now the reason why the watch is not like the original iPhone, is precisely because it is largely a dumb terminal interface to the phone, and merely mirrors information the phone sends to it. Such a device doesn't need elaborate support to remain relevant, as long as the iPhone continues to use the same radios and protocols for data transmission.
That's why it's most likely a safe investment -- not because Apple won't be improving the hardware every generation, and adding new desirable features. GPS, FaceTime Camera, IPX8 water resistance, among many other desirable features will make the latest watch one to upgrade to. However, as many watch collectors do, the old Watch should still function just as well, and presumably have a different design, or at least finish, to keep around and wear occasionally to mix it up. Apple needs to enable multi-pairing, but that's inevitably coming, or Apple risks leaving a lot of money on the table.
Well, as you mentioned yourself: It is like your iphone 1. The iphone still works but cannot use certain newer features and no new apps working on it anymore. Same thing will happen to the Apple Watch 1.
The difference being that the watch merely relays information to and from your iPhone. The original iPhone was the information processor itself. As long as the Watch merely passes information back and forth from the phone, it will continue to work as it always has. I don't see a downside for a developer to stop supporting the information conduit on older watch apps with new phones, nor Apple for that matter. The original iPhone software and support is limited by processor power, something the watch doesn't really need merely to mirror information from the phone. So the watch should remain as useful as it always was forever, until the paradigm shifts and Apple moves toward and eventual disconnect from the phone completely.
Agreed. At this point, I could go even go much longer between iPhone upgrades, but the phone company subsidies make switching every two years no big deal. With the Watch, which is a glorified notification screen on my wrist, I can see going much longer.
With the apparent modularity of the Watch's internals, I wouldn't be surprised if Apple uses the current case for a while, at least in tech terms.
Sorry, but I still don't see a difference. With a new WatchIOs come new functions which you then will not have with Apple Watch 1, nor be able to install new apps (native apps), as they require the new watchIos as Apple Watch one will be to slow for that.
If you say the basic functions of the watch still work (and will forever), so do the basic functions of the iPhone 1 (and will forever). I could make a comparison and just say that the information which are passed from iphone to watch will just be information passed from the internet to the iphone 1. You can still do everything what you need with the iPhone 1 (call+message+receive internet information).
It's about the processor power. I said that the first time. Who cares if the new watches or new phones do things that the old ones don't, as long as the old ones still work they way they did when you bought them.
The original iPhone is no longer supported because the processor wasn't fast enough to do the things Apple needed the iPhone to do. The watch is merely a dumb terminal that sends and receives information. And the current processor is plenty fast to do that. Will it be able to run some stand alone apps in the future that require a faster processor on the watch? Maybe not, but will it still be able to send and receive information from an iPhone? You betcha.
As for my original iPhone, it still supports 2G ATT Edge. It still makes calls, I can still surf the internet (albeit not as secure as newer updates), send e-mail, and texts. The original apps still work fine on it. The only things that don't work are the things that Apple never supported to begin with, like iCloud, or have since discontinued like MobileMe. Or, newer apps that require resources the original iPhone doesn't have, chiefly a faster 64-bit processor.
The Watch doesn't need any of that. It doesn't have to process any data at all, just pass it along to the phone and back. Which means, as long as the app on the phone supports this protocol, the watch will still function as it did on the first day. So there's no need to worry about whether the watch can run anything on its own, since it could run very little from the start. Unlike the original iPhone which has to run everything on its own, and always did.
Unless Apple changes the fundamental way the watch interacts with future iPhones, then the original watch apps should be supported indefinitely. And I don't see that happening until Apple removes the iPhone dependency completely, and people buy either a watch or a phone, but not both.
@Mac 128
Thank you for all your effort to make me understand your view, but I think we just have different opinions about that.
If this would be iPhone 1 you would be having and comparing to a MacBook, I think you would say the exact same thing about the iPhone 1 which you now say about the apple Watch.
I am not saying you are wrong about what you stating about the Apple watch, I just don't think there is a difference in comparison to the iPhone.
Thank you for all your effort to make me understand your view, but I think we just have different opinions about that.
If this would be iPhone 1 you would be having and comparing to a MacBook, I think you would say the exact same thing about the iPhone 1 which you now say about the apple Watch.
I am not saying you are wrong about what you stating about the Apple watch, I just don't think there is a difference in comparison to the iPhone.
While that may be true, the end result is the same. Apple will cripple the older AW such that it can't be used with newer wOS and iOS, and vice versa with newer AW such that it can't be used with older wOS and iOS. E.g., a newer AW may say "Requires iPhone 7 or newer" (at least until it becomes iPhone-free).
Thanks to the feedback here I've refined my view a little. I still think that Apple Watch product updates will be about design and NOT focussing on tech spec. I'm sure of this.
But I think that future Apple Watches will include additional sensors. Blood pressure is the obvious one that Apple wanted for the first Watch but apparently couldn't get right in time. But there are other obvious candidates -- body temp, for example, or even stuff like red/white cell count.
Looking forward I reckon it'll pan out like this:
Mid-late 2016: New Apple Watch. Main boasts are different design and straps. Possibly faster CPU and better battery life. Outside chance of new sensors. More of a product refresh than new model.
Mid-late 2016: Watch OS 3.0. Reviewers are astonished by the performance boosts it brings but then again Apple can optimise like this because the hardware platform is limited two just two devices. There's a ton more everyday performance to be got out of the Apple Watch with a little effort.
Mid-late 2017: New Apple Watch. Jony Ive appears in footage saying it's a complete re-engineering effort, and re-examination of what Watch should be based on usage and feedback from the first Watch. New range of sensors, including BP.
But the key thing throughout, and something that Apple will be praised for, is consistency of function. The original Apple Watch will not go out of date for a good five years, maybe even longer, just like a real life watch won't suddenly stop being useful in that time frame. If you upgrade to a new watch it'll be because of useful additional stuff, rather than the old device becoming useless.
Apple spent a lot of time figuring out how the horology world works, and this is why I'm so sure that retaining function even on older devices is really firmly planted in the minds of people like Jony Ive. That's why we have a $15,000 Watch Edition, and is why the Watch has always been a product in which 90% of the work is in pure design as far as Apple is concerned (even if, for you, it feels otherwise). Think about the recent live event. A guy was on stage for 10 minutes doing nothing other than talking about watch straps! Apple considers that kind of thing to be really, really important! When the Watch was launched Apple courted fashion editors, not computer magazine editors -- people who are about appreciating design, not specs.
But I think that future Apple Watches will include additional sensors. Blood pressure is the obvious one that Apple wanted for the first Watch but apparently couldn't get right in time. But there are other obvious candidates -- body temp, for example, or even stuff like red/white cell count.
Looking forward I reckon it'll pan out like this:
Mid-late 2016: New Apple Watch. Main boasts are different design and straps. Possibly faster CPU and better battery life. Outside chance of new sensors. More of a product refresh than new model.
Mid-late 2016: Watch OS 3.0. Reviewers are astonished by the performance boosts it brings but then again Apple can optimise like this because the hardware platform is limited two just two devices. There's a ton more everyday performance to be got out of the Apple Watch with a little effort.
Mid-late 2017: New Apple Watch. Jony Ive appears in footage saying it's a complete re-engineering effort, and re-examination of what Watch should be based on usage and feedback from the first Watch. New range of sensors, including BP.
But the key thing throughout, and something that Apple will be praised for, is consistency of function. The original Apple Watch will not go out of date for a good five years, maybe even longer, just like a real life watch won't suddenly stop being useful in that time frame. If you upgrade to a new watch it'll be because of useful additional stuff, rather than the old device becoming useless.
Apple spent a lot of time figuring out how the horology world works, and this is why I'm so sure that retaining function even on older devices is really firmly planted in the minds of people like Jony Ive. That's why we have a $15,000 Watch Edition, and is why the Watch has always been a product in which 90% of the work is in pure design as far as Apple is concerned (even if, for you, it feels otherwise). Think about the recent live event. A guy was on stage for 10 minutes doing nothing other than talking about watch straps! Apple considers that kind of thing to be really, really important! When the Watch was launched Apple courted fashion editors, not computer magazine editors -- people who are about appreciating design, not specs.
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I think they could go a great deal thinner and still keep the same bands. There would be tons of pissed off people if Watch 2 had different size bands. People would take it as a lesson learned and probably cut down on the amount they purchase.
They stuck with the old iPod-style connector for years after they really should've introduced something like Lightning, so there's precedence.
That said, what if the new models of the Watch need to use the strap area for additional sensors? And Apple MUST be at least investigating the possibility of putting some battery power into the strap.
I also think it is one thing to change a connector on a phone where people may have invested $100 (on a high end) into connectors/docks, but people are spending $500+ on bands and upgrading.
I've talked about this a bit in other threads as well and I just don't see Apple Watches changing that much in the near future.
1. When you are selling watches for $17,000. They better not go obsolete anytime soon.
2.. Design will mostly stay the same. Thinner maybe. Round? Nope.
3. Cadence for updates. I say every 2 years to match up with AppleCare+.
4. The watch is technically a jewelry accessory. I don't see folks running out to buy these every year or 2. Just not happening especially at the current price points.
5. To keep the the Watch fresh, Apple will keep releasing new bands and OS updates to add new abilities and complications. Money will be made on the bands as people look to change things up.
1. When you are selling watches for $17,000. They better not go obsolete anytime soon.
2.. Design will mostly stay the same. Thinner maybe. Round? Nope.
3. Cadence for updates. I say every 2 years to match up with AppleCare+.
4. The watch is technically a jewelry accessory. I don't see folks running out to buy these every year or 2. Just not happening especially at the current price points.
5. To keep the the Watch fresh, Apple will keep releasing new bands and OS updates to add new abilities and complications. Money will be made on the bands as people look to change things up.
Mad Mac Maniac
macrumors 601
I think the Apple Watch will be about the same in 5 years as the iPad Pro is to the original Gen 1 iPad (released 5 years ago). Or about as similar as the iPhone 5 is to the Gen 1 iPhone.
A LOT changes in 5 years (especially from a 1st gen device). The device will still work in the same general manner, but in the case of the Apple watch (similar to all tech) it will become significantly faster, more battery efficient, stronger/better materials, more accurate sensors, additional sensors (to include GPS/cellular), thinner, lighter, better force touch/tactic, and a few things we could never have anticipated today.
It's narrow-minded to think that we are at the end of innovation.
A LOT changes in 5 years (especially from a 1st gen device). The device will still work in the same general manner, but in the case of the Apple watch (similar to all tech) it will become significantly faster, more battery efficient, stronger/better materials, more accurate sensors, additional sensors (to include GPS/cellular), thinner, lighter, better force touch/tactic, and a few things we could never have anticipated today.
It's narrow-minded to think that we are at the end of innovation.
I don't think it's a good idea to add sensors to straps unless they connected wirelessly. If they need a wired connection, the strap would have to be one-way only since the "mystery port" is only on one side of the watch (disregarding the problem of making a slide-in strap with a reliable power-and-data connector).
Mad Mac Maniac
macrumors 601
1) Funny I didn't realize my iPhone 6 Plus was going obsolete tomorrow. I guess it will power down and no longer continue to work, according to your rationale here.
2) Agree
3/4) I also don't see folks running out buying a new macbook every 9 months, iPad every 12 months, iPhone every 12 months, and samsung device every 3 days. I don't see why you would ever try to equate a user's purchase cycle with the watch release cycle. They are not the same. Every make/model of car comes out every year; I don't think many people feel compelled to buy a new car every year.
The important question is how long will the device be supported (i.e. with software updates). Nobody can know that for sure, but Apple is improving on this front. iOS 9 supports iPad 2 (released March 2011) and iPhone 4s (released Sept 2011). Even if support is dropped in iOS 10 that equates to 5+ years of support. I think it's reasonable to assume approx the same for Apple Watch (although Gen1 might be a bit shorter). But remember this: The length of time a device is supported is NOT directly related to the frequency of updates.