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I'm still 50/50 on if they will or won't release a new Apple Watch based on a few points:

1. There might not be the consumer appetite to upgrade every year (I'm not upgrading this year if it's a spec bump which can't be ruled out).

2. The Hermes strap's are aesthetic and don't add any functionality to the watch worthy of justifying that much interest in early leaks coupled with the fact they're not produced on mass in Asia would further limit the chance of leaks.

3. The iPhone is a device that most owners rely on to a greater extent than the Apple Watch which would prompt the appetite to upgrade more often whereas the Apple Watch is more of an expensive extension/accessory to the iPhone.

4. At least in the UK a lot of upgrades are tied to carrier contracts expiring every 2 years. The vast majority of iPhones in the UK are contract whereas the watch is an outright purchase which would limit appeal based on upfront cost to upgrade every year unless your a die hard fanboy.

On the other hand:

1. It may be true that production wouldn't start till later in the year based on projected demand (which apple would have a better idea of now than they did before the launch of a whole new product line) as demand will almost certainly be lower than it is for the iPhone.

2. They do habitually update on a yearly cycle if you take the iPad for instance some would have said there was no need to upgrade on a yearly cycle but they did and this helped sales.

Anyone who is certain about what will happen better be an Apple exec or they're just taking pot shots in the dark.

One more point: We got no real leaks with Apple's stock bands in the new colors (other than the pastel-colored Sport bands) or the yellow gold/rose gold aluminum AWS, yet they were mass produced and available on the day of the refreshes.
 
The iPhone is a device that most owners rely on to a greater extent than the Apple Watch which would prompt the appetite to upgrade more often whereas the Apple Watch is more of an expensive extension/accessory to the iPhone.

I think this a strongest argument against having the iPhone launch alongside the Apple Watch given that it's practically an accessory to the iPhone. But then as customers go in to buy their new iPhone 7 having a promotion to those who buy a iPhone 7 gets a discount on the Apple Watch would help to ease it's just a expensive accessory to the iPhone.
 
I also think that Apple will keep the existing Sport unchanged in Space Grey and Silver as the base model watch and only release a Stainless Steel / New Material / Edition Apple Watch 2 (Similar to how they upgrade iPhones and iPads).

That's my 2p worth...

I think the Sports models are their most selling Apple Watch... Don't think they would do such a thing. But I do think they will phase out the existing SS models and upgrade the entire line. They will keep their existing Sports models.. to help keep it affordable.

Not so sure with the Edition model.
 
I think the Sports models are their most selling Apple Watch... Don't think they would do such a thing. But I do think they will phase out the existing SS models and upgrade the entire line. They will keep their existing Sports models.. to help keep it affordable.

Not so sure with the Edition model.

I'm in agreement, I just think they may want to have more of a processor / specification difference between the Sport and Watch models like they do with iPhones and iPads ?
 
I believe the timeline to be based on battery life, for example 1000 complete charge cycles. (2.73 years) New version, it may only be an S upgrade, but never the less somewhere 2017
Apple Watch Owners
Your battery is designed to retain up to 80% of its original capacity at 1000 complete charge cycles. The one-year warranty (for Apple Watch and Apple Watch Sport) and two-year warranty (for Apple Watch Edition) include service coverage for a defective battery.

iPhone is only 500 cycles
 
Many people seem to think that customers only buying a new product every two or three years should point to a similar frequency of updates on behalf of Apple. I think this idea is very flawed. For instance, take a look at the first generations of iPhones and iPads. Did Apple really expect that first generation adopters would buy the new version merely a year later?

The same goes for Macbook Pros. Certainly not a product that is bought annually. And yet incremental, internal updates happened twice a year in the first three years (2006–2008).

For all these products and the Apple Watch there are many people that either deliberately held off from buying the first generation right away or decided later, waiting for a refresh. Some AW1 owners might venture the upgrade if the AW2 has a feature – like GPS – that is strong enough an incentive for them, but I personally believe the majority of potential customers will be those without an AW to begin with.
 
I'm thinking price dump and more options but dynamically I think we have this watch through the holiday season OR we see a new one with the iPhone 7.
 
If you think about the number of iPhones sold in a year versus the Apple Watch, you can see why rumors would be small for the AW compared to the iPhone. It's like Major League Baseball versus minor league baseball. Once in a while there is something to report, but most want to know about the big leaguer.
 
All the reasons already listed....and...

If it's only a mild refresh with updated internals... No real changes to show. This could also explain low stock.
 
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