I'm still 50/50 on if they will or won't release a new Apple Watch based on a few points:
1. There might not be the consumer appetite to upgrade every year (I'm not upgrading this year if it's a spec bump which can't be ruled out).
2. The Hermes strap's are aesthetic and don't add any functionality to the watch worthy of justifying that much interest in early leaks coupled with the fact they're not produced on mass in Asia would further limit the chance of leaks.
3. The iPhone is a device that most owners rely on to a greater extent than the Apple Watch which would prompt the appetite to upgrade more often whereas the Apple Watch is more of an expensive extension/accessory to the iPhone.
4. At least in the UK a lot of upgrades are tied to carrier contracts expiring every 2 years. The vast majority of iPhones in the UK are contract whereas the watch is an outright purchase which would limit appeal based on upfront cost to upgrade every year unless your a die hard fanboy.
On the other hand:
1. It may be true that production wouldn't start till later in the year based on projected demand (which apple would have a better idea of now than they did before the launch of a whole new product line) as demand will almost certainly be lower than it is for the iPhone.
2. They do habitually update on a yearly cycle if you take the iPad for instance some would have said there was no need to upgrade on a yearly cycle but they did and this helped sales.
Anyone who is certain about what will happen better be an Apple exec or they're just taking pot shots in the dark.
One more point: We got no real leaks with Apple's stock bands in the new colors (other than the pastel-colored Sport bands) or the yellow gold/rose gold aluminum AWS, yet they were mass produced and available on the day of the refreshes.