I'm seeing more negative Apple Watch stories since the Fitbit IPO

[Rogifan]

Just this week I saw two stories with negative comments from designers, mostly from design firm New Deal Design. One was in Fortune the other in design publication Dezeen. The Fortune article never even mentions that one of New Deal Design's clients is Fitbit. Then of course we have the Slice Intelligence report that many in the media jumped on to push the narrative that Apple Watch is a flop. Meanwhile Fitbit stock is up 13% over the last 5 days and 60% over the past month.

I find all of this a bit curious. Why is the media so interested in an analytics firm that has no real track record in market research and prior to their Apple Watch findings most people had never heard of them? One could argue tracking receipts would be a phenomenal source of information for all sorts of products yet we hear nothing about how predictive it is for anything other than Apple Watch. Why? And what's the point of interviewing a competing products design team for their opinion on Apple Watch? Are we supposed to conclude the Watch is a flop because a 3rd party design firm involved with the design of Fitbit is slagging it off? I'm trying to understand the motivation for this. I suppose it could just simply be that Apple FUD is good for clicks and page views. But I do find it curious we're seeing some of this after the Fitbit IPO.

 

[haruhiko]

And of course, everything is just "coincidence"...

 

[Rogifan]

And of course, everything is just "coincidence"...

Plenty of free publicity for New Deal Design and Slice Intelligence, two firms that most people had probably never heard of before. Makes you go hmm...

Credit to the Macalope for highlighting this. They did get Fortune to update their story mentioning the Fitbit connection.

http://www.macworld.com/article/2948972/gadgets/minor-details-who-s-deriding-the-apple-watch.html

 

[JOSEPH99]

Who's FitBit? Is it like Wheaties?

 

[maxsix]

Apple being both a very successful, yet highly polarizing company invites criticism due to their outsized arrogance, heavy boasting especially at keynotes and in their advertising.

Now having become the 800 lb gorilla in the room Apple will prevail no matter what.

At this point Apple has so much money, such brand strength, and an Army of compliant customers, nothing else matters.

 

[Warbrain]

I didn't even consider the timing of these articles. Good work.

 

[Rogifan]

Apple being both a very successful, yet highly polarizing company invites criticism due to their outsized arrogance, heavy boasting especially at keynotes and in their advertising.

Now having become the 800 lb gorilla in the room Apple will prevail no matter what.

At this point Apple has so much money, such brand strength, and an Army of compliant customers, nothing else matters.

"an army of compliant customers", aka "Sheep" right?

 

[exxxviii]

Actually... Slice reports on many things. And, I think that their analysis has proven correct for other products (I am still looking for the article I read about them.) The reason that Slice is a household name for AW data is perhaps that no one else has a method for estimating orders for something like the AW, and Slice has previously proven credible.

The other thing that is significant is that Slice just publishes data. The stories about AW success or failure are quoting Slice data and then making their own editorial commentary about how they choose to interpret the data. It really should not be Slice at the center of everyone's attention, it should be the writers using Slice information.

 

[Bromeo]

I agree with the @Rogifan. I'm sure a lot of business "news" is simply bought and paid for. Complete ready-to-publish articles are perhaps even slipped into journalists email boxes: copy-paste-take-the-afternoon-off-you-met-your-deadline-on-a-bad-writing-day. You can almost always tell, as real journalism digs to find both sides to a story.

I believe such "news" can only create short-term blips due to the market players/gamblers buying and selling on news in search of quick gains now. The real story is revealed in long-term performance over many years as the flashes-in-the-pan stories are long forgotten. As they say, the quiet money is interesting to watch, if one simply steps back a bit.

Having read the article in question, it seems to be more along the lines of the sour grapes we saw from the luxury watch designers. "Apple Watch is a Massive Fail" makes for great link-bait.

As to "sheep" and "compliant customers" - what's wrong with customer loyalty? Every business should pursue making customers for life, whether you are a one-person landscaping company, or a leading technology firm. As soon as you take your eyes off providing an excellent customer experience and creating that good will, you will be left wondering what happened. Plenty of companies today scratching their heads wondering how Apple gets this seemingly unfair advantage. Well it's not through hypnosis or conjuring. It's just hard (and smart) work.

 

[Rogifan]

Actually... Slice reports on many things. And, I think that their analysis has proven correct for other products (I am still looking for the article I read about them.) The reason that Slice is a household name for AW data is perhaps that no one else has a method for estimating orders for something like the AW, and Slice has previously proven credible.

The other thing that is significant is that Slice just publishes data. The stories about AW success or failure are quoting Slice data and then making their own editorial commentary about how they choose to interpret the data. It really should not be Slice at the center of everyone's attention, it should be the writers using Slice information.

I'd love to see Slice's data on other products. Have they done similar analysis on iPhone or Samsung devices or other consumer electronics in general? Why is it that the first time most people heard about them was with Apple Watch?

 

[Rogifan]

I agree with the @Rogifan. I'm sure a lot of business "news" is simply bought and paid for. Complete ready-to-publish articles are perhaps even slipped into journalists email boxes: copy-paste-take-the-afternoon-off-you-met-your-deadline-on-a-bad-writing-day. You can almost always tell, as real journalism digs to find both sides to a story.

I believe such "news" can only create short-term blips due to the market players/gamblers buying and selling on news in search of quick gains now. The real story is revealed in long-term performance over many years as the flashes-in-the-pan stories are long forgotten. As they say, the quiet money is interesting to watch, if one simply steps back a bit.

Having read the article in question, it seems to be more along the lines of the sour grapes we saw from the luxury watch designers. "Apple Watch is a Massive Fail" makes for great link-bait.

As to "sheep" and "compliant customers" - what's wrong with customer loyalty? Every business should pursue making customers for life, whether you are a one-person landscaping company, or a leading technology firm. As soon as you take your eyes off providing an excellent customer experience and creating that good will, you will be left wondering what happened. Plenty of companies today scratching their heads wondering how Apple gets this seemingly unfair advantage. Well it's not through hypnosis or conjuring. It's just hard (and smart) work.

What's incredibly annoying is the "I expected this to be an iPhone moment" meme. No. I'm sorry but you didn't. That's just a convenient thing to say to fit the Watch is doomed a s Steve Jobs wouldn't have narratives.

If the iPad came out today people would be mocking it as just a bigger iPod touch. And we get the same silly "I was expecting a revolution from Apple and this isn't it" nonsense.

Btw, if you look at total iPhone sales to date, only 0.2% were shipped in the launch quarter. With iPad it was 1%. Sales in the first 90 days after launch are not a good way of measuring success with Apple products.

https://mobile.twitter.com/BenedictEvans/status/621213253834702848

 

[exxxviii]

I'd love to see Slice's data on other products. Have they done similar analysis on iPhone or Samsung devices or other consumer electronics in general? Why is it that the first time most people heard about them was with Apple Watch?

They launched with the iPhone 6. They are likely hitting the headlines because AW sales are a current hot topic, and Slice is probably the only entity estimating AW sales.

 

[Rogifan]

They launched with the iPhone 6. They are likely hitting the headlines because AW sales are a current hot topic, and Slice is probably the only entity estimating AW sales.

So Slice Intelligence didn't exist prior to last September? If so all the more reason to be skeptical about their analytics. They certainly don't have a proven track record of accurately predicting sales.

 

[jasie02]

What's incredibly annoying is the "I expected this to be an iPhone moment" meme. No. I'm sorry but you didn't. That's just a convenient thing to say to fit the Watch is doomed a s Steve Jobs wouldn't have narratives.

If the iPad came out today people would be mocking it as just a bigger iPod touch. And we get the same silly "I was expecting a revolution from Apple and this isn't it" nonsense.

Btw, if you look at total iPhone sales to date, only 0.2% were shipped in the launch quarter. With iPad it was 1%. Sales in the first 90 days after launch are not a good way of measuring success with Apple products.

https://mobile.twitter.com/BenedictEvans/status/621213253834702848

Could we see Samsung or other brand sale history?

The problem with comparing Apple with Apple is it does not show how bad other brand are in sale.

 

[oghowie]

People love Apple stories especially when it's potentially about a failing product. Its big news because of how rare it is.

With that said I've already returned my Apple Watch and got a Fitbit Charge HR instead. My friend is also returning hers after about a week of use. She had a Fitbit Flex before the Apple Watch. Maybe Fitbit is actually doing better than expected since myself and many others thought the watch would kill the other fitness bands out there.

 

[exxxviii]

So Slice Intelligence didn't exist prior to last September? If so all the more reason to be skeptical about their analytics. They certainly don't have a proven track record of accurately predicting sales.

Unless you have specific information that undermines their sample size or methodology, I would not doubt them. I work with a number of brilliant analytics people, and I have learned that they are capable of some amazing precision.

Slice's founder taught at Stanford Business School, and the Slice analytics began there as a research project years before its launch as a company. It claims to have something like 2M monitored mailboxes. And I think their iPhone 6 analysis was considered accurate, after the dust settled.

 

[Newtons Apple]

Both Apple and Fitbit will do good. I own and use the Fitbit Surge because it has a built in GPS and the Fitbit app blows Aplle away for the fitness side. The Surge is a dedicated fitness device.

Apple has no worries but Fitbit is on a run as their Surge and new Charge HR are big time sellers. If Fitbit make a device that is smaller and looks better the will fly even higher. I am betting they are working on it.

 

[rasputin1969]

It's funny that the same people who are now questioning Slice's methods were more than happy with them when their initially reports suggested the watch was going to be a blockbuster product.

 

[Recognition]

...myself and many others thought the watch would kill the other fitness bands out there.

You explained it perfectly there.

One is a watch with fitness band abilities.
The other a fitness band with watch abilities.

People will buy what suits their lifestyle best.

 

[exxxviii]

Both Apple and Fitbit will do good. I own and use the Fitbit Surge because it has a built in GPS and the Fitbit app blows Aplle away for the fitness side. The Surge is a dedicated fitness device.

Apple has no worries but Fitbit is on a run as their Surge and new Charge HR are big time sellers. If Fitbit make a device that is smaller and looks better the will fly even higher. I am betting they are working on it.

I am actually rooting for Fitbit. Their IPO gave them a huge infusion of capital. Apple showed the world that consumers are willing to spend premium dollars on a smart watch. Fitbit has a massive user base, a mature platform, and tons of wearable market experience. I am hoping that Fitbit will release some premium, very nice looking, smart watches that leverage its activity and workout platform. That will drive Garmin to push its products forward as well.

I want Apple to feel some competitive threat in the watch space, because it will motivate them to rewrite the whole workout and activity stack. When companies have a little fear, all boats rise.

 

[Rogifan]

It's funny that the same people who are now questioning Slice's methods were more than happy with them when their initially reports suggested the watch was going to be a blockbuster product.

Do you have comments from me ever touting Slice's numbers? And when did they ever claim Watch would be a blockbuster product?

 

[c1phr]

So Slice Intelligence didn't exist prior to last September? If so all the more reason to be skeptical about their analytics. They certainly don't have a proven track record of accurately predicting sales.

Not as "Slice Intelligence", but they've been tracking purchases for quite a while. I guess I should have realized my online purchases been used for market research for the past few years, every other company seems to be doing it.

 

[Michael CM1]

Apple being both a very successful, yet highly polarizing company invites criticism due to their outsized arrogance, heavy boasting especially at keynotes and in their advertising.

Now having become the 800 lb gorilla in the room Apple will prevail no matter what.

At this point Apple has so much money, such brand strength, and an Army of compliant customers, nothing else matters.

Outsized arrogance and heavy boasting? Assuming you're talking about being any different than every other company telling you how awesome its products are, Apple is the biggest company in the world. You get to boast when you basically print money by selling iPhones.

McDonald's has "I'm Lovin' It" as a slogan. Do you really think people LOVE that food or it's just OK for how cheap it is?

 

[Newtons Apple]

I am actually rooting for Fitbit. Their IPO gave them a huge infusion of capital. Apple showed the world that consumers are willing to spend premium dollars on a smart watch. Fitbit has a massive user base, a mature platform, and tons of wearable market experience. I am hoping that Fitbit will release some premium, very nice looking, smart watches that leverage its activity and workout platform. That will drive Garmin to push its products forward as well.

I want Apple to feel some competitive threat in the watch space, because it will motivate them to rewrite the whole workout and activity stack. When companies have a little fear, all boats rise.

Agree 100%. Competition is good. Like it sand if Fitbit could get control of the size and "looks" of its hardware, they would be embraced my the masses.

 

[Zxxv]

Apple being both a very successful, yet highly polarizing company invites criticism due to their outsized arrogance, heavy boasting especially at keynotes and in their advertising.

Now having become the 800 lb gorilla in the room Apple will prevail no matter what.

At this point Apple has so much money, such brand strength, and an Army of compliant customers, nothing else matters.

Sony was in that position in the 80's and look what happened to them, they threw it all away so don't rule out apple going the same right, and eh microsoft did it too.