I'm seeing more negative Apple Watch stories since the Fitbit IPO

Discussion in 'Apple Watch' started by Rogifan, Jul 17, 2015.

  1. Rogifan macrumors P6

    Rogifan

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    #1
    Just this week I saw two stories with negative comments from designers, mostly from design firm New Deal Design. One was in Fortune the other in design publication Dezeen. The Fortune article never even mentions that one of New Deal Design's clients is Fitbit. Then of course we have the Slice Intelligence report that many in the media jumped on to push the narrative that Apple Watch is a flop. Meanwhile Fitbit stock is up 13% over the last 5 days and 60% over the past month.

    I find all of this a bit curious. Why is the media so interested in an analytics firm that has no real track record in market research and prior to their Apple Watch findings most people had never heard of them? One could argue tracking receipts would be a phenomenal source of information for all sorts of products yet we hear nothing about how predictive it is for anything other than Apple Watch. Why? And what's the point of interviewing a competing products design team for their opinion on Apple Watch? Are we supposed to conclude the Watch is a flop because a 3rd party design firm involved with the design of Fitbit is slagging it off? I'm trying to understand the motivation for this. I suppose it could just simply be that Apple FUD is good for clicks and page views. But I do find it curious we're seeing some of this after the Fitbit IPO.
     
  2. haruhiko macrumors 601

    haruhiko

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    #2
    And of course, everything is just "coincidence"...:p
     
  3. Rogifan, Jul 17, 2015
    Last edited: Jul 17, 2015

    Rogifan thread starter macrumors P6

    Rogifan

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    #3
  4. JOSEPH99 macrumors member

    JOSEPH99

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  5. maxsix Suspended

    maxsix

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    #5
    Apple being both a very successful, yet highly polarizing company invites criticism due to their outsized arrogance, heavy boasting especially at keynotes and in their advertising.

    Now having become the 800 lb gorilla in the room Apple will prevail no matter what.

    At this point Apple has so much money, such brand strength, and an Army of compliant customers, nothing else matters.
     
  6. Warbrain macrumors 603

    Warbrain

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    #6
    I didn't even consider the timing of these articles. Good work.
     
  7. Rogifan thread starter macrumors P6

    Rogifan

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    #7
    "an army of compliant customers", aka "Sheep" right?
     
  8. exxxviii macrumors 65816

    exxxviii

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    #8
    Actually... Slice reports on many things. And, I think that their analysis has proven correct for other products (I am still looking for the article I read about them.) The reason that Slice is a household name for AW data is perhaps that no one else has a method for estimating orders for something like the AW, and Slice has previously proven credible.

    The other thing that is significant is that Slice just publishes data. The stories about AW success or failure are quoting Slice data and then making their own editorial commentary about how they choose to interpret the data. It really should not be Slice at the center of everyone's attention, it should be the writers using Slice information.
     
  9. Bromeo macrumors regular

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    #9
    I agree with the @Rogifan. I'm sure a lot of business "news" is simply bought and paid for. Complete ready-to-publish articles are perhaps even slipped into journalists email boxes: copy-paste-take-the-afternoon-off-you-met-your-deadline-on-a-bad-writing-day. You can almost always tell, as real journalism digs to find both sides to a story.

    I believe such "news" can only create short-term blips due to the market players/gamblers buying and selling on news in search of quick gains now. The real story is revealed in long-term performance over many years as the flashes-in-the-pan stories are long forgotten. As they say, the quiet money is interesting to watch, if one simply steps back a bit.

    Having read the article in question, it seems to be more along the lines of the sour grapes we saw from the luxury watch designers. "Apple Watch is a Massive Fail" makes for great link-bait.

    As to "sheep" and "compliant customers" - what's wrong with customer loyalty? Every business should pursue making customers for life, whether you are a one-person landscaping company, or a leading technology firm. As soon as you take your eyes off providing an excellent customer experience and creating that good will, you will be left wondering what happened. Plenty of companies today scratching their heads wondering how Apple gets this seemingly unfair advantage. Well it's not through hypnosis or conjuring. It's just hard (and smart) work.
     
  10. Rogifan thread starter macrumors P6

    Rogifan

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    #10
    I'd love to see Slice's data on other products. Have they done similar analysis on iPhone or Samsung devices or other consumer electronics in general? Why is it that the first time most people heard about them was with Apple Watch?
     
  11. Rogifan thread starter macrumors P6

    Rogifan

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    #11
    What's incredibly annoying is the "I expected this to be an iPhone moment" meme. No. I'm sorry but you didn't. That's just a convenient thing to say to fit the Watch is doomed a s Steve Jobs wouldn't have narratives.

    If the iPad came out today people would be mocking it as just a bigger iPod touch. And we get the same silly "I was expecting a revolution from Apple and this isn't it" nonsense.

    Btw, if you look at total iPhone sales to date, only 0.2% were shipped in the launch quarter. With iPad it was 1%. Sales in the first 90 days after launch are not a good way of measuring success with Apple products.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/BenedictEvans/status/621213253834702848
    [​IMG]
     
  12. exxxviii macrumors 65816

    exxxviii

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    #12
    They launched with the iPhone 6. They are likely hitting the headlines because AW sales are a current hot topic, and Slice is probably the only entity estimating AW sales.
     
  13. Rogifan thread starter macrumors P6

    Rogifan

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    #13
    So Slice Intelligence didn't exist prior to last September? If so all the more reason to be skeptical about their analytics. They certainly don't have a proven track record of accurately predicting sales.
     
  14. jasie02 macrumors 6502a

    jasie02

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    #14
    Could we see Samsung or other brand sale history?

    The problem with comparing Apple with Apple is it does not show how bad other brand are in sale.
     
  15. oghowie macrumors 6502a

    oghowie

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    #15
    People love Apple stories especially when it's potentially about a failing product. Its big news because of how rare it is.

    With that said I've already returned my Apple Watch and got a Fitbit Charge HR instead. My friend is also returning hers after about a week of use. She had a Fitbit Flex before the Apple Watch. Maybe Fitbit is actually doing better than expected since myself and many others thought the watch would kill the other fitness bands out there.
     
  16. exxxviii macrumors 65816

    exxxviii

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    #16
    Unless you have specific information that undermines their sample size or methodology, I would not doubt them. I work with a number of brilliant analytics people, and I have learned that they are capable of some amazing precision.

    Slice's founder taught at Stanford Business School, and the Slice analytics began there as a research project years before its launch as a company. It claims to have something like 2M monitored mailboxes. And I think their iPhone 6 analysis was considered accurate, after the dust settled.
     
  17. Newtons Apple Suspended

    Newtons Apple

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    #17
    Both Apple and Fitbit will do good. I own and use the Fitbit Surge because it has a built in GPS and the Fitbit app blows Aplle away for the fitness side. The Surge is a dedicated fitness device.

    Apple has no worries but Fitbit is on a run as their Surge and new Charge HR are big time sellers. If Fitbit make a device that is smaller and looks better the will fly even higher. I am betting they are working on it.
     
  18. rasputin1969 macrumors 6502

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    #18
    It's funny that the same people who are now questioning Slice's methods were more than happy with them when their initially reports suggested the watch was going to be a blockbuster product.
     
  19. Recognition macrumors 6502

    Recognition

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    #19
    You explained it perfectly there.

    One is a watch with fitness band abilities.
    The other a fitness band with watch abilities.

    People will buy what suits their lifestyle best.
     
  20. exxxviii macrumors 65816

    exxxviii

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    #20
    I am actually rooting for Fitbit. Their IPO gave them a huge infusion of capital. Apple showed the world that consumers are willing to spend premium dollars on a smart watch. Fitbit has a massive user base, a mature platform, and tons of wearable market experience. I am hoping that Fitbit will release some premium, very nice looking, smart watches that leverage its activity and workout platform. That will drive Garmin to push its products forward as well.

    I want Apple to feel some competitive threat in the watch space, because it will motivate them to rewrite the whole workout and activity stack. When companies have a little fear, all boats rise.
     
  21. Rogifan thread starter macrumors P6

    Rogifan

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    #21
    Do you have comments from me ever touting Slice's numbers? And when did they ever claim Watch would be a blockbuster product?
     
  22. c1phr macrumors 6502

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    #22
    Not as "Slice Intelligence", but they've been tracking purchases for quite a while. I guess I should have realized my online purchases been used for market research for the past few years, every other company seems to be doing it.
     
  23. Michael CM1 macrumors 603

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    #23
    Outsized arrogance and heavy boasting? Assuming you're talking about being any different than every other company telling you how awesome its products are, Apple is the biggest company in the world. You get to boast when you basically print money by selling iPhones.

    McDonald's has "I'm Lovin' It" as a slogan. Do you really think people LOVE that food or it's just OK for how cheap it is?
     
  24. Newtons Apple Suspended

    Newtons Apple

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    #24
    Agree 100%. Competition is good. Like it sand if Fitbit could get control of the size and "looks" of its hardware, they would be embraced my the masses.
     
  25. Zxxv macrumors 68040

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    #25
    Sony was in that position in the 80's and look what happened to them, they threw it all away so don't rule out apple going the same right, and eh microsoft did it too.
     

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