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In 5 years, will the iPad be viewed a Success or a Failure?

In 5 years, will the iPad be viewed a Success or a Failure?

  • Success

    Votes: 183 88.0%

  • Failure

    Votes: 25 12.0%
  • Total voters
    208
Success. The iPad is serving as a launching pad for creative and innovative ideas which will be brought to this device by many, many developers.....and the more creative apps it provides the more people will want it and the more successful it will be. Now, isn't that a simple concept to grasp?
 
Success.

It's priced right.
Most people couldn't care less about Flash.
Most people couldn't care less about multitasking.
Most people couldn't care less about cameras.
 
I'd like to say success, but because Apple is rehashing the iPhone's success and not developing the iPad into a unique product on the computing side, I think it's a failure. It'll sell well for a few months and then people will just forget about it (and the iPads sold will start to gather dust). 😀
 
Clix Pix said:
Success. The iPad is serving as a launching pad for creative and innovative ideas which will be brought to this device by many, many developers.....and the more creative apps it provides the more people will want it and the more successful it will be. Now, isn't that a simple concept to grasp?
Click to expand...

+1. Well stated. It's all about the apps. And if you build it, the apps will come--and Apple has built it.
 
Failure. Not saying that tablet is special. The thing is, mac os x with multitouch could been the starting point instead using the iphone os...
 
The poll results have been consistently sitting at around an 85% prediction of success from a perspective five years out.

After reading the cynical old Internet and even the MacRumors forums for the past week, I would never have guessed people would be so optimistic.

🙂
 
I'm waiting for one of those disassembles to show up with a bill of materials and probable pricing per component. If Apple is making a decent profit on these things and they are selling well, they will continue to pour resources into them. If they either sell slowly or the margins aren't that great including actual book sales, then the tablet will find its way to the "hobby" niche similar to AppleTV. So I'm going to be devil's advocate and take the most pessimistic view to iPad sales and conduct a thought experiment called "what if they sell slowly at first"...

IMHO, even if iPad slides into a hobby niche at first, it will still be a success by introducing a new form factor in computing. HP has been making heavy tablets for years. I know because I had to buy one for my daughter. All I can say is I wish the iPad had been available at the time. It costs less than 1/4 as much as the HP and based on Apple's demo it appears it would be a lot easier to use. I have an iPod Touch so I have a pretty good idea what it would be like to use one of these. One thing about the HP that influenced the school to choose them was the ability to hand write notes in OneNote. I'm sure somebody will be selling stylus accessories and a handwriting app will show up in the app store. I'm sure M$ will jump on the iPad with a version of Office 2010 including OneNote.

And all of this can happen even if initial sales place the iPad in the "hobby" for a while. You see, Apple has a wee bit of money in the bank and can stand a few years of hobby status for iPad. People will buy an MSI tablet, an HP tablet, an Acer tablet and grind their teeth over the clumsy M$ or Linux software then break down and buy an iPad. My first computer wasn't a Mac. I had to be schooled in the land of blue screens, freezes and driver issues. So even if the competition puts out a plethora of look-alikes in the $300-500 price range in the end iPad will win out. Even if it gets off to what seems like a slow start, nobody will doubt the success of the iPad. In 5 years, iPads will be as commonplace as iPod Touches, even if for a lot of users it is their "second" tablet purchase.

Ok, that's enough devil's advocate. I predict the iPad will skip the niche thing altogether and the "halo" Apple enjoys from other products will prompt users to try iPad first rather than second.
 
bobob said:
The poll results have been consistently sitting at around an 85% prediction of success from a perspective five years out.

After reading the cynical old Internet and even the MacRumors forums for the past week, I would never have guessed people would be so optimistic.

🙂
Click to expand...

I think because even those that won't buy it upon release know with a few OS additions/changes they would buy it. 5 years is a long time for the iPad to evolve. SJ and 50 billion can make whatever he wants succeed if he wishes. If he thinks the iPad is the greatest thing he's ever done, he can make sure it sells millions, one way or the another. In the end sales figures is how analysts and wall street will judge Apple and the iPad's success.

I think the iPad will bring out the "closet" Apple fans that will hide it and only use it in their home as they don't' want their PC gaming buddies to know they finally broke down and bought something with the Apple logo.
 
Depends on how much Apple can improve the current design and make it practicable.

Some new products don't pay off right away.

In its current form I don't see much practical use for it. And it's the practical use that would make it a success.
 
I think that the iPad will be considered the first mainstream tablet that proved the point that meaningful computing does not need expensive parts. Commenters will also note that it is something that netbooks proved first. 🙂

But most importantly, the iPad will be seen as the device that opened the floodgate for basic tablets that introduced the internet for billions. I am confident about this. With cheap parts and a basic interface, the elderly can enjoy the web, poor people can have their fun too. With a tablet, you don't have to feel 'techy' to enjoy the benefits.

I almost recommended the iPad to an elderly friend of mine. He used to be the director and the chairman of some respectable companies, so money is not an issue, but he's always had a secretary and he's useless with computers. To check his emails, read his newspapers and e-books, the iPad could be ideal. "Could be", but it's not. Arthritis is a bitch with the iPad and that glossy screen will drive poor elderly people blind and mad.
 
kernkraft said:
I think that the iPad will be considered the first mainstream tablet that proved the point that meaningful computing does not need expensive parts. Commenters will also note that it is something that netbooks proved first. 🙂

But most importantly, the iPad will be seen as the device that opened the floodgate for basic tablets that introduced the internet for billions. I am confident about this. With cheap parts and a basic interface, the elderly can enjoy the web, poor people can have their fun too. With a tablet, you don't have to feel 'techy' to enjoy the benefits.

I almost recommended the iPad to an elderly friend of mine. He used to be the director and the chairman of some respectable companies, so money is not an issue, but he's always had a secretary and he's useless with computers. To check his emails, read his newspapers and e-books, the iPad could be ideal. "Could be", but it's not. Arthritis is a bitch with the iPad and that glossy screen will drive poor elderly people blind and mad.
Click to expand...

So it's going to be easier to use what? Seems the big icons would be simpler to navigate then a menu system from Win 7 on a small screen.
 
It's going to be a big success right out of the gate.

All the issues the haters have with it aren't important to real people.

And no, they won't be collecting dust, like previous tablets are. They will actually be used.
 
People need to remember that when the iPhone was initially envisioned and predicted out into the future, the idea of an App store was not one that held much weight.

Certainly it had gotten some consideration, but I don't think that was in the initial plan at all. Once they did change course and decide to go with third party apps it changed everything. Once that became a massive success way beyond anybody's expectations, it started making other things possible. It is what has made the iPad possible. With the advent of third party apps on the iPhone/Touch the iPad would like not be coming out now. So that was one important change of direction Apple made that was not a part of their original plan.

The point being is, the iPhone did not spawn the iPad, the app store did.
 
iPad 1.0 can be a laptop replacer for most functions. It is not a total replacer by any means. I do see it being a mega success by 2015. The iPad 5.0 will be so amazing that it is hard for us to image all it can do. It may have 12 core processor. It will have voice, handwriting, motion control, super HD, etc.

Basically, an ideal portable device would have the following features: long battery life for active use (7 days), hugh storage, very fluid operating system, media centric, fast in doing everything, portable, can play console type games and mini-games.

The iPhone is more than a smart phone. It has been converted to a professional camera, video recorder. It has been used as a medical device. And so on!!! Just image what the iPad can do!! Both the iPhone and iPad would be great for a spy!! Perhaps, the iphone os can be used in all types of appliances, i.e. refrigerator.

Nostromo said:
Depends on how much Apple can improve the current design and make it practicable.

Some new products don't pay off right away.

In its current form I don't see much practical use for it. And it's the practical use that would make it a success.
Click to expand...

I see plenty of practical use. Some third parties are making softwares to take notes. School books' publishers are having e-textbooks via scroll motion company. It serves as a great book reader for some. It can be used by business for reporting, inventory, etc.

Masquerade said:
Failure. Not saying that tablet is special. The thing is, mac os x with multitouch could been the starting point instead using the iphone os...
Click to expand...

I disagree! A tablet form factor requires multi-touch, multi-point interactions. Sure you can use a bluetooth keyboard and mouse, but they would defeat the purpose of being ultraportable. Otherwise, you would want to stay with a macbook pro. The os in the mbp was developed for the laptop hardware configuration (keyboard, display, mouse, etc). The os would have to be re-coded from scratch. iPhone OS is that total recoded version of the apple os X leopard. It may not have the full functionality of that os, but it will. Once the iPad evolve where the battery, performance can handle more powerful chip, other components,etc, then the os will be supreme!!
 
kernkraft said:
But most importantly, the iPad will be seen as the device that opened the floodgate for basic tablets that introduced the internet for billions. I am confident about this. With cheap parts and a basic interface, the elderly can enjoy the web, poor people can have their fun too. With a tablet, you don't have to feel 'techy' to enjoy the benefits.
Click to expand...


This.

And its not just 'computers for dummies', its about time we could do tasks on our computers without having to understand computers first. Do you need to understand the technology of your car to drive it? Do you need to know how your TV works to watch it?

Abstracting the 'computer' out of the equation is a huge step forward.

Yes, it could be more open. but its a start. Single sheet of capacitive glass has almost infinite possibilities. I honestly think this will be a completely new platform, which is copied and competed with and will evolve alongside traditional computers from now on.
 
Success.

One the true ipad apps start hitting the store not scaled ones we will see this thing take off big time.

One thing that everyone is forgetting (the haters that is) is the fact that every desktop os that has been ported to a tablet has failed because it needs a keyboard and mouse more that 75% of the time to be usable. Apple has played it smart and scaled up a true touch os to take on bigger things.

Yeah I know there are people saying hold on a minute it could have sported a c2d chip etc but why does it need to when it's blisteringly fast with a specialised 1ghz chip.
 
Success.

It appeals to a broad market share -
I want one (techy geek woman with more macs / computers than limbs, and I've got the "usual" number of limbs)
My fiance wants one (interested in computers, not techy geek, happens to be totally blind, so big up to Apple on carrying on the accessibility of the iphone imho)
My best friends wants one (uses computers but not really interested in how they work, job is writing software systems for a large energy supplier)
My dad wants one for my stepmum (typically middle aged mum who emails, facebook, buys a few bits on the web, if you'll pardon the generalisation).

IMO it appeals to the wallets of more people than it repels. Ergo = success.
 
I say that it'll be a success. With the "iPad killers" starting to emerge, I see fierce competition for the Tablet market. Same went for the iPhone.
 
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