Intel iBook at MWSF (January) 2006?

[Stella]

I'm interested in what the performance of these Intel machines will be like, given the huge gains that can be made - notable FSB.

- will they be comparable to existing PPC machines
- will apple cripple the performance
- will Java will be more usable - current Java performance on PPC is pretty dire.

 

[wilburpan]

If the Intel iBook is really going to be announced at MWSF '06, it would be pretty easy to gauge what would be included by going to the *gack* Dell website.

Today, Dell has the Inspiron 2200 line as their baseline entry-level notebook. They have 14 or 15" XGA displays, Celeron M or Pentium M processors, 40-60 GB hard drives, and a choice of 24X CD burner/DVD Combo Drive or a 8x CD/DVD burner (DVD+/-RW).

Assuming that a new Intel iBook would be sporting a Pentium M, the Inspiron 2200 model that comes closest to the currently available iBook is listed as the "High-End" machine on their Inspiron 2200 webpage. This comes in at ~$1000 without an instant rebate, and has a 1.70 GHz Pentium M, 512 MB RAM, 60 GB hard drive, 24X CD Burner/DVD Combo Drive, built in wireless, and pretty minimal software.

I'm betting that the entry level Intel iBook will be pretty similar, with the exception of also having a Firewire port. I also think it will be similarly priced. But here's the kicker: Apple's profit on an Intel iBook will automatically be higher than Dell's profit on a similarly spec'ed notebook because Apple doesn't have to pay Microsoft a licensing fee for Windows.

This means Apple can offer laptops that are identical to any Windows based laptop and still have a higher profit margin. This means better quarterly financial reports, and better stock prices.

By the way, if you haven't tried to buy a Dell notebook recently (and why would you), their website is a big fat PITA.

 

[maverick808]

I'm interested in what the performance of these Intel machines will be like, given the huge gains that can be made - notable FSB.

- will they be comparable to existing PPC machines
- will apple cripple the performance
- will Java will be more usable - current Java performance on PPC is pretty dire.

1) Sure. You'll be able to compare them by saying "hey look at how much faster this Intel is compared to the old PPCs".

2) Nah, they can't since these chips will be used in Dells, HPs etc. Apple can't go out and say hey check out our 2GHz Intel... it's not as fast as a 2GHz Intel from Dell but it's prettier. That won't fly so they can't cripple them.

3) No, Java is rubbish on every machine in the world. It will continue to uphold that rubbishness on Apple-Intels.

 

[mdavey]

The Dual-core Yonah would let us have a Dual 2.0 17" Powerbook for $200 (!). Better to roll out something hugely impressive to build buzz rather than a single-core iBook...

I could see this happening only if Apple had some other way to differentiate the iBook range from the PowerBook range. Screen size and screen format doesn't cut it for me, so that leaves processor speeds, form-factor or something I haven't though of.

 

[dr_lha]

But here's the kicker: Apple's profit on an Intel iBook will automatically be higher than Dell's profit on a similarly spec'ed notebook because Apple doesn't have to pay Microsoft a licensing fee for Windows.

This means Apple can offer laptops that are identical to any Windows based laptop and still have a higher profit margin. This means better quarterly financial reports, and better stock prices.

Yeah, but Mac OS X doesn't exactly cost them "nothing", R&D costs for OS X will be high, and I'll bet that boxed sales of Tiger et al doesn't cover the cost of development, so they have to put part of the Mac hardware sales towards that. I'd be surprised if the necessary "cut" of the Mac profit that goes back to pay for OS X development isn't the same or more as what Dell pays for Windows ($50 a machine or something?).

 

[ksz]

Finally it occurs to me that, though ThinkSecret's word was close to golden, an impressive close to 90% or better rumor to reality rate, the times they are a changin' what with Apple suing them. What's to say Apple somehow didn't plant this info to try to 1. just fool the heck out of TS or 2. catch someone?

The entire line is going to Intel processors. The only question is when, on a per model basis. The only thing the rumor mill is going to guess is the timing, the rest is a certainty. Does it make sense for iBook, PowerBook, iMac, mini, or what-have-you to go first? Which one goes first will, I think, be highly dependent on the class of software that is native by release time. Just because Apple updated the iMac or PowerBook a few weeks ago does not necessarily rule them out from being Intellisized first. The Think Secret article mentions one important thing: If the iBook is first, the Intel version of the iBook will be one of several iBook models. Other iBook models might remain on PPC, allowing buyers to ease in to the Mactel world. Those who need PPC will still be able to buy PPC. An overlapping transition might make more sense than an all-or-nothing replacement of a model line.

But enough with the speculation. I will just wait for MWSF and see what Apple has to say.

 

[Stella]

Java is pretty good - it has an unfortunate legacy of being 'slow' which isn't the case any more. For most cases - running a Java app on windows - you can't immediately tell the difference between a native and Java App.

Hope iBooks get redesigned, the current ones look a little too girlie - change the colour to black.

There should be an option of a 100mb hard disc so you put a copy of windows on the other partition ( no, I'm not joking, it'll be very useful for some people ). Sometimes emulating windows just isn't fast enough ( on Intel ).

1) Sure. You'll be able to compare them by saying "hey look at how much faster this Intel is compared to the old PPCs".

2) Nah, they can't since these chips will be used in Dells, HPs etc. Apple can't go out and say hey check out our 2GHz Intel... it's not as fast as a 2GHz Intel from Dell but it's prettier. That won't fly so they can't cripple them.

3) No, Java is rubbish on every machine in the world. It will continue to uphold that rubbishness on Apple-Intels.

 

[NickFalk]

...pretty much all Apple apps, and some of the pro apps. Its not like NONE of the pro apps will be ready.

I think you're wrong. Adobe have already been quite vocal about the amount of work necessary to port their apps to Macintel and Apple probably won't release any of their high-end video offerings until NAB anyway. As most pro apps rely on altivec this would probably mean that the new iBooks will still run slower than the Powerbooks when it comes to pro apps...

My guess: iBooks/minis early next year. Powerbooks at the developer conference...

 

[hyperpasta]

I could see this happening only if Apple had some other way to differentiate the iBook range from the PowerBook range. Screen size and screen format doesn't cut it for me, so that leaves processor speeds, form-factor or something I haven't though of.

I thought about this to. The iBook would probably top out at Dual 1.5, with the Powerbook going to Dual 2.0 and maybe even beyond! The Powerbook could also come with a built-in iSight a la iMac.

 

[Lurch_Mojoff]

Well... I don't know...

OK, a few thoughts of mine on this ThinkSecret report:

For starters I don't really care about TS' amazing track record of "knowing" what Apple are up to. For all I know they may just be extremely lucky in guessing all that. And even if they had insider info in the past, there is little evidence they are not making all this up - it's not that hard to come up with an educated guess like that - in hope they'll turn out to be right.

Anyway, iBooks to go x86 first sounds pretty reasonable. Consumer machines are the perfect testbed for new technologies (and new architectures actually). Consumers are not that demanding after all - as long as it is not terribly slow, unusable computer and it is cheap and shiny enough, they'll be quite happy. And, by the way, most of the non-pro software, consumer software, or however you wanna call it, will be released as universal binaries in no time flat after the announcement of the first x86 Macs shipping. Almost all of that software, be it Apple's own (iLife, iWork, etc.) or third party, is Cocoa based, and from what I've heard most Cocoa programs Just Compile™ as universal binaries. Besides, iBooks are in dire need of an update.

However, there are a couple of problems here. For one, as every other person in the thread pointed out, it is yet unknown how will Yonah (or whatever Intel chip Apple are going to use) compare to G4, but it is far more likely that Intel's stuff will be faster, a lot faster at that. This will definitely make G4 Powerbooks look bad, compared to much cheaper x86 iBooks. And there is the other problem - first batches of a new processor are usually pretty expensive, because of higher degree of rejected production (i.e. processors that are gonna' be scrapped because they don't fulfill the specs or don't work at all, due to impurities, manufacturing flaws, etc.) Tweaking out the production process may take a good few months. Until then what, Apple are going to lose money on every iBook they sell, especially with the rumored lower price points? I'm not sure.

If there are x86 Macs announced at MWSF'06, my take is, they will be both iBooks and Powerbooks or just Powerbooks. Powerbooks, despite being the pro-laptops of Apple, are rarely used as production machines (main or only production machines at least - almost never), so there wont be much problem there.

Well, January is not that far away so we'll see. I won't be the least surprised by x86 Macs debuting at MWSF, but I'm not holding my breath. After all, there are hell lot of tuesdays/wednesdays in the first six months of 2006, aren't there? 😛

 

[Hattig]

Ugh, what's that thing at the end of the article about people liking 15" screens? Why is the 12" iBook and Powerbook so popular? Because of the smaller overall formfactor.

Anyway. Let's assume that the low-end iBook gets a $200 reduction.

$799 1.66GHz iBook
Single Core Yonah
Integrated Intel Graphics (yuk! But fairly common on Intel laptops)
12" Display, 1024x768

$999 1.66GHz iBook
Dual Core Yonah (at this speed they're only $30 more expensive)
Integrated Intel Graphics
12" Display, 1024x768

$1199 1.66GHz iBook
Dual Core Yonah
Integrated Intel Graphics
13" Widescreen Display, 1280x800

However one must remember the rumours about a 15" widescreen iBook earlier this year...

$1399 1.83GHz iBook
Dual Core Yonah
Integrated Intel Graphics
15" Widescreen Display, 1280x800 or 1440x900

The problem is that there are so many variables. How does the PowerBook get a look in? Quite possibly the PowerBook will get an update - either to the 7448 at 1.8GHz or even 2.0GHz to tide it over until the middle of the year, or it'll go Intel as well - at higher speeds.

$1599 2.0GHz PowerBook
Dual Core Yonah
ATI or nVidia Graphics
13.3" Widescreen, 1280x800 or 1440x900

$1999 2.16GHz PowerBook
Dual Core Yonah
High-end ATI or nVidia Graphics
15.4" Widescreen, 1440x900 or 1650x1050

$2499 2.16GHz PowerBook
17" Widescreen, 1650x1050

In all the above, assume the clock speeds could be a speed step in either direction as well.

 

[p0intblank]

I don't know who to believe anymore... 😕 I guess I will just have to wait and see.

 

[NickFalk]

After all, there are hell lot of tuesdays/wednesdays in the first six months of 2006, aren't there? 😛

I just had a quick check and it's nine of them in January alone! 😱

 

[lopresmb]

I trust ThinkSecret a lot more than other Apple rumour sites.

yeah thinksecret and Appleinsider seem to be some of the most consistent rumor sites. Other than that, when news starts being published and confirmed in the "big media circus" it also seems to be a bit more substantiates (cf. Intel switch).

 

[amateurmacfreak]

Great! Intel laptops coming faster than I expected. Knowing Thinksecret has a reliable track record, I'm giving them a 70% chance of being right. Could definitely Apple dropping another bomb. 😀

i really was hoping and hoping and hoping that powerbooks would be the first w/ intel... if that happened, i'd probably go and spring for a 15"... but if ibook comes out first w/ intel... maybe i'll get a 14" ibook...
sry, this is unrelated sort of, but if you're ripping a dvd using an external dvd burner, does it generally take longer?? that's what i'm doing, and it's taking a very long, long time.... only 4.17fps!!!!!!

 

[generik]

3) No, Java is rubbish on every machine in the world. It will continue to uphold that rubbishness on Apple-Intels.

That is your own rubbish opinion. Java runs great on other platforms I tried.

 

[JFreak]

when was the last time Apple was ahead of schedule?

they seem to release new ipods faster than people can even rumor about them 😉

 

[Lurch_Mojoff]

I think you're wrong. Adobe have already been quite vocal about the amount of work necessary to port their apps to Macintel and Apple probably won't release any of their high-end video offerings until NAB anyway. As most pro apps rely on altivec this would probably mean that the new iBooks will still run slower than the Powerbooks when it comes to pro apps...

My guess: iBooks/minis early next year. Powerbooks at the developer conference...

Although this doesn't invalidate your point, Apple doesn't have to wait till next version of the pro-apps to release a universal binary install, it can very well be rerelease of the current version. Oh, and the Altivec reliance turned out to be much overrated. On the other hand, there are third party pro-apps that are about ready to hit the street.

 

[generik]

The problem is that there are so many variables. How does the PowerBook get a look in? Quite possibly the PowerBook will get an update - either to the 7448 at 1.8GHz or even 2.0GHz to tide it over until the middle of the year, or it'll go Intel as well - at higher speeds.

The PBs may get the Intel upgrade.. or maybe not.

Afterall Apple did take the trouble to up the current lines to the new Intrepid2 chipset and higher clocked DDR2 memory, but to what end? It is not like the current 1.67 chips are able to exploit these fully, if at all.

Personally I am still secretly rooting for one more PPC revision before the intel switch. Maybe then I wlll buy one of those final relics for keeps.. the last model in the line of an alternative CPU architecture 🙄

 

[JFreak]

As most pro apps rely on altivec this would probably mean that the new iBooks will still run slower than the Powerbooks when it comes to pro apps...

Wrong. It means that you are not able to run pro apps via Rosetta, which only translates PPC to X86 and doesn't touch Altivec at all. That means that every single Altivec app MUST be run on a PPC hardware until Intel native version is released.

 

[NickFalk]

...Apple doesn't have to wait till next version of the pro-apps to release a universal binary install, it can very well be rerelease of the current version.

Yes, but I think it would just make sense for Apple not too. If they premiere the new version at NAB they can release it as the same time as the new Powerbooks at the DC.

...there are third party pro-apps that are about ready to hit the street.

OK, fair point. I'm mostly into video-stuff which in my case means Final Cut Studio + a bunch of Adobe apps.

 

[NickFalk]

Wrong. It means that you are not able to run pro apps via Rosetta, which only translates PPC to X86 and doesn't touch Altivec at all. That means that every single Altivec app MUST be run on a PPC hardware until Intel native version is released.

Not quite. I believe Photoshop uses Altived when present but can still run on G3 processors. Final Cut Studio would have to be recompiled I guess, and I believe this actually fits perfectly with my theory of a later Powerbook update...

 

[Wonder Boy]

With Intel so close now, the good question really is... would you switch to a rev A MacIntel?

I would.

not me. thats why i bought a 2.5 from macmall. i couldn't wait for a rev b.

 

[Diomedes]

Lack of native apps...

When I read the rumor of the possibility of a PowerBook with the dual-core Yonah chip, I began to drool...until it hit me that the applications which make up 90-95% of my daily life — Office, Acrobat, Creative Suite — won't be native. Anything less than a "break-even" performance (meaning the apps running on Intel would have to perform at least as well as they do on PPC) will be unacceptable. (And I don't see Microsoft or Adobe rushing to get their apps Intel native...)

 

[revisionA]

I'd like to see the ULV Pentium M in an iBook.

Its slower ,1.2 right now, and would probably give it like 8 hours of battery life. It wouldnt intimidate the G4 Powerbook on the speed level, but battery life is the major focus in the portable world. Battery tech sucks.

And that alone is a college kids wet dream. To just take the laptop with you, use it all day, and recharge it when you get home...

If they dont mind imitating the Sony T series... wait, the integrated webcam was on the sony t's for a while... hmm.

OSX would make it into the perfect accessory. Offer four primary colors and watch the kiddies line up. Make it $899 for a ULV power iBook in red, black, light blue, pink or white. Drop PB's six months later running Merom dual cores, filling in the much wanted G5 powerbook hole with a 64 bit dual core starting at exactly twice the base price of the iBook.

Split the trackpad's clicker into two, please! Make the right click like 65% of the space and 35% for the left, less confusion for the K.I.S.S. crowd.

Integrate the camera, but also a slidedown cover for it. Physically blocking the camera will help motivate the paranoid, like myself, to buy it.

Do it!
$