Intel Urged to Take 'Immediate Action' Amid Threats From Apple Silicon and AMD

[Freeangel1]

so many intel haters
just wait when the apple arm does not satisfy digital content creators
you guys have a lot hope in apple that these m1 processors and all their apple proprietary GPU and other BS will meet your needs

I personally LOVE intel and building my own PC.
Every iMac I have ever owned has had a bad video card making it useless for graphic design or video editing.

 

[redcaptrickster]

Every iMac I have ever owned has had a bad video card making it useless for graphic design or video editing.

And yet graphic designers and video editors use Macs successfully all the time, including the new M1s.

 

[2979382]

Intel isn’t going anywhere as long as windows machines keep using it.

The article quite clearly mentions Microsoft wanting to move away from Intel, so don't you think that means Windows is going to be less and less reliant on Intel? From where I'm standing, there is little to no reason these days for any company to willingly opt for x86 architecture CPUs. Since the first Raspberry Pi launched I kept saying, it's hard to justify Intel and AMDs presence in a world where ARM can render just as and much more capable CPUs. Intel's best move now would be to ditch x86, and come up with a multipurpose enhanced ARM processor, computer manufacturers would want to buy. While Apple initially might look like just a 10% or so loss for Intel, the reality is very different, because often Apple makes a bombshell move, then everyone follows. Think headphone jack, M1, no chargers. Suddenly Intel finds itself being a "2nd class citizen" in the CPU world and not because their CPUs are bad, but because the competition is so much better. It happens. Plenty large companies have been displaced in the past by an unexpected competitor, though in this case it isn't entirely unexpected. Intel I guess just underestimated Apple and the general industry.

 

[Freeangel1]

I'm pesonally just happy my Mac doesn't run as hot as a BBQ anymore.

I think this is an over exaggeration.
My intel i9 rocks. never gets hot.

 

[FelixDerKater]

IBM decline 2.0. They just don't have the consulting services to keep the balance sheet solid.

 

[zorinlynx]

The writing is on the wall, Intel.

I like your icon, btw.

 

[bousozoku]

They can buy AMD to begin with.

Third Point should move their money to AMD.

 

[hagjohn]

They can buy AMD to begin with.

They would run into antitrust issues.

 

[ksec]

lol @ the idea of TSMC spending only a few tens or twenty millions to get their process working. just completely hilarious. You can't even buy a single stepper for that.

Exactly.

On the topic:

Custom Foundry was the right strategy in 2014 with the poor execution. Now Intel doesn't have the capacity, technical lead nor pricing advantage. I am not sure if spinning off would do anything. i.e May be too late.

 

[Apple_Robert]

Apple has thrown down the gauntlet. I don't think Intel can answer in kind. If they can, what has been holding them back? It may take several years, but I think the writing is on the wall for Intel. With Arm, I think Apple will gain market, especially if they work a deal with Microsoft.

 

[4jasontv]

And yet graphic designers and video editors use Macs successfully all the time, including the new M1s.

Do you think my iMacs GPU would work if I started using photoshop?

 

[cppguy]

Part of the problem with x86 is the extensive support of hardware and software it has to deliver. If Intel only delivered to one company like Apple it could optimize a lot more and create something more like an M1. Unfortunately that cannot happen and they are stuck just trying to improve process which isn’t going anywhere.

Precisely. Compatibility is everything for some. Remember Commodore Amiga? It was a decade ahead of IBM + MS DOS. It was so nice, so user-friendly! And yet it failed, because there was no software for it, and it wasn't able to run existing business applications at a reasonable speed.

The market can be segmented like this:
- Consumers: They're very easy to transition, they only need a browser, a word processor, and whatever is hot at the moment. Gaming is important, though.
- Computer professionals: Big brand software publishers can do the transition very quickly. Everything is subscription-based anyway, few people are stuck with old software.
- Corporate: They mostly need word processing, accounting, communication, but also need the occasional obscure custom solution that must run super reliably. Emulation can take care of the legacy software. On the other hand, they are not going to transition all machines at the same time, but over a long period of 5-7 years. They need to support both old and new hardware equally well for a long period of time.
- Manufacturing, scientific: This is very tricky, they rely on $200,000+ special equipment, metalworking, medical devices, truly one-of-a-kind peripherals, such as mass spectrometers, CNC machines. Their investment is not for 10 but 25 years. They also run seriously expensive CAD software, industrial flow control, custom controller software. Consider power plants, Xray, irradiation, drug research. There's no transitioning of these applications for a very long time.
- Data warehouse: It tends to be always the latest and greatest (continuous integration and continuous delivery). Cloud software tends to be .NET or Java, which is machine-independent and platform-independent. Often the hardware itself is a service in the cloud, hosted and maintained by Amazon or Microsoft.

 

[true god]

Hope Intel can get their sh*t together before it's too late.

 

[Analog Kid]

Well, to everyone saying that Apple Silicon won’t impact Intel, I think this shows otherwise. Investment is forward looking— it doesn’t matter that Intel has a long proud history, or that Apple themselves are a relatively small fraction of revenue. The concern for any smart investor is that Apple’s move might be the first snowball of the avalanche and Intel is out of time to fix it.

What this signals to me (and I’m not claiming to be a smart investor) is that the x86 market size will be constricted by other companies going custom. Add to that the fact that Intel doesn’t hold clear dominion over even the x86 market any longer because AMD is winning by enough performance margin for enough product cycles now that it’s not being mistaken as a fluke and Intel has nothing to hang their hat on any longer.

I agree that the Altera acquisition was a failure (as all Intel acquisitions tend to be), but it’s interesting to encourage divestment right after the AMD acquisition of Xilinx. AMD seems to be better at integrations like that, at least it seems they managed the ATI acquisition well, so divesting Altera now would leave Intel without a means to respond.

Intel's fabs are a critical asset so divesting them would be a mistake, IMO.

The issue with Intel is indeed the chip design - they just don't scale down which is why they remain "stuck" on 14nm for their most powerful chips and they are having such a problem getting to 10nm, much less anything smaller.

Just as Core replaced Netburst when the latter hit the wall, so now has Core hit the wall and Intel needs to find an entirely new x86 architecture to replace it - one that can scale down to sub-10nm.

Intel is screwed on both process and architecture. It seems to me splitting the operations is sensible. It doesn’t look like the Third Point proposal is divestiture though, it looks like they're proposing an internal change in management. Right now the vast majority (all?) of their fab capacity is dedicated to manufacturing Intel devices and every processor is designed assuming an Intel process (though some have been outsourced recently). Third Point is suggesting that that relationship be broken. Open the fab to support third party custom silicon devices (for Apple, MS and others, for example) and run processors through other fabs where it makes sense.

That makes sense to me. Monetize the fab capacity where it makes sense and don't burden your chip designs with your process limitations. I'd half expect that to mean that Intel will slowly wind down their fab business, but Third Point seems to think differently:

"Without immediate change at Intel," the letter cautioned, "we fear that America's access to leading-edge semiconductor supply will erode."

That seems like a strange thing to worry about. I looked into Third Point a bit and can't find much other than "event driven investment"-- but I'm not sure why they'd care about where America can get chips unless they're somehow government funded or issue driven. I'd expect them to focus on making Intel as efficient as possible and let America fend for itself.

I haven't read the whole letter though, so this might have been in the context of other vendors wanting a US fab for their custom parts for whatever reason. Still, seems an odd, ideological concern to voice...

 

[jz0309]

They would run into antitrust issues.

Exactly, which they did in the past and it resulted in AMD getting a x86 “license”...

 

[amartinez1660]

And why some of the newer Ryzen designs are like hockey-pucks. I think the issue backward compatibility, intel can't start over like Apple did. Intel can't say, no more 32/16 bit apps. (I still decided a 10900K won out against a Ryzen in my own new build)

They are definitely still great CPUs, at least on desktop side... I have an 2020 27” iMac, 8-core one and it flies and it will continue flying for years on end. I just find it so sad that such a great company that has given us so many advancements over decades to go down like this. I have used Intel most of my life, since the Pentium ones, to Celeron, Core 2 Duo, etc. Dabbled a couple of years on the first AMD dual cores (amazing things and amazing prices at the time) to go back to Intel SKUs.

Maybe they could have two models? The backwards compatible one and the fresh, new, clean slate from here on? That would require TONS of cooperation for things like Apple does with Universal executables and whatnot on the PC side though.
And, also, couldn’t they just continue selling the current models for those that want to continue using legacy software? does legacy/non-updated decade old 2010 software really needs to be supported by 2020 CPUs? I mean, it already does and will continue to run it forever, so I guess they could sell today’s 2020 models for years on end which will chew on that legacy software.

In any case, if what the article says is one of the biggest reason, employees fleeing because of mismanagement, then it’s doubly sad. We probably all have been on a mismanaged company: things run circles, asking for a pen takes a week to be resolved by procurement, meetings are created to discuss about the next meetings, people fighting for the credits of others, impossible deadlines still treated as if on target in an insane state of denial until it’s too late, etc... goddamn, writing that made me stress.

 

[jsalda]

so many intel haters
just wait when the apple arm does not satisfy digital content creators
you guys have a lot hope in apple that these m1 processors and all their apple proprietary GPU and other BS will meet your needs

I personally LOVE intel and building my own PC.
Every iMac I have ever owned has had a bad video card making it useless for graphic design or video editing.

Interestingly enough, ever since 2001 every Mac that I ever purchased had video issues, the main reason I purchased AppleCare (haven't had any issues with my last 2 machines though). However, wouldn't this be AMD (RADEON) issues and not Apple?

I seriously can't wait for the 16" M* MBP, tired of the beach ball in Photoshop and Illustrator, I'll order on day 1 and pass my 2017 down to my son.

 

[Allards]

Bad risk-averse management defending the status-quo is ooh so sweet in the short run; until reality catches up after some years!

 

[Falhófnir]

Joining the race for WoA is probably the soundest strategy at this point. They have their own 10nm manufactories while everyone else is scrapping over TSMC and Samsung's limited capacity, Intel could probably steal a march if they can come up with even a relatively basic desktop Arm chip soonish. If the old adage about intel 10nm being = to TSMC 7nm is still true, they've got a closing window of opportunity to be relevant in an emerging market segment. Whether or not x86 is 'finished', it's facing stiff competition and has clearly already lost its captive audience for desktop computing.

 

[pray2crom]

Intel is like the Toyota 4Runner. Hasn't been refreshed for almost 12 years. Uses same 4.0L engine and the same 5 speed auto transmission. Only a few cosmic changes, if any at all, are made yearly to appear relevant against its competitors.

 

[DeepIn2U]

How the mighty have fallen

Intel goin on the 'outside' lol.

Prediction ... either Intel catches up in 2yrs or ends up like Motorola's semi conductor business going first to imbedded solutions to compete with Qualcomm, if they can.

 

[VermontsFinest]

I think this is an over exaggeration. you spelled personally WRONG too.
My intel i9 rocks. never gets hot.

Enjoy your Intel Mac, you seem a bit sensitive about the improvements in the M1, so I'll let you simmer down in peace.

 

[ArtOfWarfare]

Too late for the Mac crowd. Waiting to see what happens with the others

https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/kmgmpx

I'm surprised by how dominant XP was and 10 is. I'm also surprised that 7 wasn't bigger.

I would have guessed that 7 was the version of Windows that did best, followed by XP then 10. But it's actually XP > 10 > 7. I guess something important in XP's dominance was the lack of competition. Linux hadn't emerged yet, and Apple was stuck with PPC and the iPod hadn't started to get everyone to pay attention to Apple.

 

[axboi87]

Why is NO ONE here looking at the BIG picture ?

TSMC is located where people ?

The ONLY way to prevent the U.S. from eventually going to war with China is to bring IC manufacturing back to the States !

One way to help that effort would be for the U.S. Govt to subsidize Intel's On-Shore manufacturing efforts !

It's just a matter of time before the U.S. is at war with China, if that doesn't happen.

U.S. companies will need to, at some point, distance themselves from Taiwan.

Also, would love to see TSMC set-up THREE different sites here in the States.

In this case, some redundancy is a good thing, even if it's NOT the most efficient solution.

Disagree on the Taiwan thing. If anything we need more ties with Taiwan, including an official embassy there, as well as possibly a base. If what you say is inevitable, then a (real, not that "institute" thing) embassy, base, and exponentially increased presence in the South China Sea is very much needed. I do agree though that we need more manufacturing *here*, but to be competitive it will need to be more or less 100% automated.

 

[huge_apple_fangirl]

Intel is in a bad place right now, but they aren’t close to dying. The problem is that they‘re under attack from all sides- AMD and ARM, in the PC space and increasingly in servers. They still have over 80% of servers at least but that is mostly inertia. Their main advantages right now are inertia- in servers, the Intel brand, x86 architecture. Also scale- AMD can’t meet demand because they are dependent on TSMC, but Intel has its own fabs. But it’s not so good when people are only using your products because they have to, not because you have a better product.

Intel spinning off their fabs is a terrible idea. That’s their main advantage- they have capacity. Also, who would buy their fabs? Their manufacturing is designed specifically to work with their architecture. As for a foundry model, they are behind Samsung and TSMC and nobody trusts them as a partner. But I don’t think the US government will let them fail- they are the only US semiconductor company with advanced manufacturing capabilities. Worst comes to worst, they will get bailed out/government investment in failed fabs. Then they may hobble along kind of like IBM, a shadow of the giant they once were.

Intel’s 10nm doesn’t have the yield of 14nm, so their margins are down, but it also doesn’t have the scale of 14nm, because they are losing market share to AMD, and now Apple. That will push margins down further. Even if Intel maintains most of the market and AMD only gets say, 30%, and maybe Apple increases its share by a point or two, it will make it harder and harder for Intel‘s 10nm and later 7nm process (if they ever get to that lol) to stay profitable, especially if they have to also compete on price with AMD.