continued
Even if these lower cost estimates for production are accurate, and I have no reason to actually believe they are, since nobody else has built a device like this before, the likely fact is with all real costs factored in the iPad for $499 is likely being sold at a loss to Apple. Best case it might be break even or a miniscule profit.
The other devices will be profitable and the back end on content sales will help. However just because some analyst who has never built anything in their life says the components cost 218 or 283 or whatever number they come up with... does not mean Apple is making 280 or 200 dollars a unit. It means by the time you pay for research and development, administrative overhead, retail and marketing, the product probably loses money.
That is actually a pretty low gross margin for a product like this... so Apple has had to work really hard to be able to sell it for that 499 price point. For a brand new product starting a brand new category of consumer electronics, to cut the margin so thin is a risk. However it also has the upside of making it very hard for competitors to get into the game.
As rumored before the announcement for the iPad, most competitors were believing the base model would be $999 and that they could come in 20%-30% underneath that and still make money. With the base model on an ipad being $499 there is no room for anyone to make a comparable device at that pricepoint and make any money.
The 3G models and the higher memory models are charging a premium because people will pay the premium for those features, and it subsidizes the cost of the $499 device, which allows Apple to sell it so cheap.