iPad Snags 75% of Tablet Market in 4Q 2010 as Android Gains Momentum

[Vulpinemac]

Please read again:
Total number of new smartphone buyers. Total sales in Q4/2009: 54 million, total sales in Q4/2010: 101 million, difference: about 47 million.

Android sales in Q4/09: 5 million - in q4/10: 33 million. 33 million - 5 million: 28 million.

28 million out of 47 million: around 59%. Ok my rough estimate was off by 6%. Sorry for that.

I repeat: You need to learn how to read that chart. Total sales in Q42010 were 101.2 million. That doesn't mean total sales of all time, that means total sales in that one quarter. Android sales in that time period was 33 million, not 33 million minus 5 million.

What you're looking at is an overall market growth of 88% meaning nearly twice as many people bought smart phones during Q42010 as bought smart phones in the same quarter of 2009. Of that number, roughly 33% bought Android phones while the rest bought some other platform.

Understand now?

 

[Vulpinemac]

This is even more incentive for Apple to make the iPad2 better, if they can't supply a decent second generation, then they deserve to lose business. The iPad is grossly lacking right now and is nothing more then a couch toy. Your move Apple.

Grossly lacking at what? I certainly use mine for far more than a "couch toy."

 

[cmaier]

cool.
but how do products like xbox 360 (which sell for less than the cost to make) affect this utility / demand balance? If the utility of a chicken is X, but it is being sold below that - what effect does it have on the whole equation? (obviously I am not an economist)
j

In the long term any seller expects to make a profit. The xbox 360 may sell for less than the cost to make (I'll take your word for it), but MS expects to make the money back on royalties from games, subscriptions, etc.

Of course, the utility of an xbox360 without any games or subscriptions is probably universally pretty low.

 

[Vulpinemac]

Umm Revo (makers of angry birds) already said they are making more money off there Android one than the one for the iPhone.....

Figure that might put damage in your pointless bashing.

Proof?

Last I read, the Angry Birds developers refused to release an Android version. If there is an Android version, it could well be a pirated one.

 

[AgDon]

Maybe you need to read more then, I have versions on my Android phone as I type.

 

[Rodimus Prime]

Amazing how one changed word can cause such a ruckus.

I bet Samsung had some uh, interesting words to say to the transcriber company they use.



Well, she's native Korean trying to find the right English words, so it makes it harder to interpret. I listened to the call's audio recording and she used "quite" very often, so that was a favorite word.

My guess is that she meant that end user sales were "steady", albeit at a slightly lower rate than they had internally predicted.

what it goes to show you is translation from one language to another is just as much an art as a science. Big time when you have to translated into English which is 2-3 times larger than most others languages.

For another example you have stink, and smell will both translated into same word lot of other languages. Yet in English they have a huge difference in meaning. That is just one example of having to translate something carefully.

 

[Avalontor]

Proof?

Last I read, the Angry Birds developers refused to release an Android version. If there is an Android version, it could well be a pirated one.

i believe it was downloaded 5 million times in the first month of it's release on android .

 

[Vulpinemac]

i believe it was downloaded 5 million times in the first month of it's release on android .

I acknowledge that Angry Birds is on Android. That's good news for you guys at least. However, according to their own blog:

18/11-10 at 10.52 by: Angry Birds Team
Angry Birds Android Feedback
We have received a lot of feedback regarding the latest Angry Birds update on Android.

First of all, we offer our apologies to all of our fans who have had trouble running Angry Birds. We thank everybody who has sent their feedback and comments to us - we really appreciate you taking the time!

With our latest update, we worked hard to bring Angry Birds to even more Android devices. Despite our efforts, we were unsuccessful in delivering optimal performance.

Right now we are running even more testing and resolving all the issues we have identified. We are also looking at all of the feedback we have received, and trying to improve the ad performance.

Some Android devices not officially supported for now
We are aware that a number of our fans have had trouble running the game on their devices. For example, some older and lower performance Android devices are experiencing severe performance issues.

We are preparing a new solution for the next update, but for the time being, the Android devices listed below are not officially supported by Angry Birds:

Droid Eris
HTC Dream
HTC Hero
HTC Magic/Sapphire/Mytouch 3G
HTC Tattoo
HTC Wildfire
Huawei Ideos/U8150
LG Ally/Aloha/VS740
LG GW620/Eve
Motorola Backflip/MB300
Motorola Cliq/Dext
Samsung Acclaim
Samsung Moment/M900
Samsung Spica/i5700
Samsung Transform
Sony Ericsson Xperia X10 mini
T-Mobile G1
Furthermore, devices running Android platform version below 1.6 or custom ROMs are not officially supported.

Granted, this was the middle of November, but it does point out some of the current issues Android is experiencing.

 

[Rodimus Prime]

I acknowledge that Angry Birds is on Android. That's good news for you guys at least. However, according to their own blog:



Granted, this was the middle of November, but it does point out some of the current issues Android is experiencing.

umm if you look at that list of phones. Most of them are from older models running older version of the OS so it is not surprising that they having issues. Such basic logic there OMG.

 

[Vulpinemac]

umm if you look at that list of phones. Most of them are from older models running older version of the OS so it is not surprising that they having issues. Such basic logic there OMG.

True, but obviously these are models people are using and complaining that they can't play, too. Those older models are only about a year old.

 

[cmaier]

umm if you look at that list of phones. Most of them are from older models running older version of the OS so it is not surprising that they having issues. Such basic logic there OMG.

Doesn't Angry Birds run on an iPhone 2G?

 

[Rodimus Prime]

True, but obviously these are models people are using and complaining that they can't play, too. Those older models are only about a year old.

some of them yes. But I sure as hell know that the G1 isn't. Some of them were cheap under power phones when they came out. I know I personally will go with high end phones when I buy mine because over the 2 years that I own it that extra cost is very little money and I do not have to suffer the last year of the phone. Hell even after hit the replacement age it is still a good phone and great phone to give as a hand me down to someone else who not in to all the high end stuff.

I think what really hit android hard was it had a very rapid development before it leveled off in what was being added every version. It shot up to 2.x but if you compared 2.1 to 2.3 you will see stuff has been added but for the most part they are fairly close together. But that jump between 1.6 and 2.1 is huge.

 

[kdarling]

Granted, this was the middle of November, but it does point out some of the current issues Android is experiencing.

No, it points out that Rovio wrote code the first time around that depended on faster CPUs. They've acknowledged that they needed to clean and optimize it.

As for revenue, Rovio has said that:

Though both models generate revenue, the ad-based model is preferable to the paid app model, according to Rovine deciding factor is updates which are necessary to keep fans interested in the game. With iOS, updates are available for free to those who already purchased this app. All revenue for Rovio is generated on this first purchase only. With Android, revenue is generated throughout the life of the game – from the original version and through all future updates advertising is present.

So how successful is the ad-based model? Rovio did not state in this video but Vesterbacka has been quoted as saying “By end of year, we project earnings of over $1 million per month with the ad-supported version of Angry Birds” . One million per month is not too shabby, especially when you consider that the Android version only became available in October.

In other words, Rovio expects to make about $12 million a year off Android, whereas they made about $7 million (IIRC - feel free to correct) last year from the iOS version.

As for OS fragmentation, Rovio has also elaborated on their previous statements by saying that Jobs was wrong about it being a "huge problem". They say that the only real problem is with the multiple available Android markets, meaning they don't have a single income point. (We all wish we had that problem - )

 

[zacman]

I repeat: You need to learn how to read that chart. Total sales in Q42010 were 101.2 million. That doesn't mean total sales of all time, that means total sales in that one quarter. Android sales in that time period was 33 million, not 33 million minus 5 million.

You still don't get the point. I compare the Q4/09 numbers to the Q4/10 numbers. And in Q4/10 Android sold about 28 million devices more than in Q4/09. In Q4/10 about 47 million more smartphones were sold than in Q4/09. So about 60% of these new smartphones were Android phones.

 

[Vulpinemac]

You still don't get the point. I compare the Q4/09 numbers to the Q4/10 numbers. And in Q4/10 Android sold about 28 million devices more than in Q4/09. In Q4/10 about 47 million more smartphones were sold than in Q4/09. So about 60% of these new smartphones were Android phones.

Look. Your chart shows that Android saw 600% growth between '09 and '10; nobody is arguing that point. However, that doesn't mean that Android sold 60% of all NEW smart phones, they only sold 33%. That's the point I'm trying to make. You can't subtract last year's numbers from this year's numbers because the total number of sales themselves almost doubled--meaning the market itself has doubled. Yes, total Android sales jumped to 33 million from 5 million, but iOS's sales jumped to 16 million from 8 million, yet Apple saw a 0.1% drop in overall market share while Android saw that 600% jump. In fact, everybody, except perhaps Microsoft, sold more smart phones this year than last. That doesn't mean they all increased their piece of the market pie, just that the pie itself got one heck of a lot bigger.

What you're squabbling about is nothing more than a re-wording of the chart's statement of seeing 600% growth. They sold 6X more, but not necessarily 60% of all smartphone growth. You might also keep in mind that that kind of growth is effectively impossible to maintain.

 

[charliehustle]

cool.
but how do products like xbox 360 (which sell for less than the cost to make) affect this utility / demand balance? If the utility of a chicken is X, but it is being sold below that - what effect does it have on the whole equation? (obviously I am not an economist)
j

It's the big picture.. MSFT makes more money in a few weeks from software than all the xbox related revenue.. it's just to get their name out there.

And why are people talking about highschool econ classes anyway? Didn't any of you graduate?

 

[firewood]

Umm Revo (makers of angry birds) already said they are making more money off there Android one than the one for the iPhone.....

Not by selling apps. From ad revenues. Which only works for a small number of developers with high volume apps. Most commercial apps (well over 95%) are not high volume. Therefore the vast majority of paid or ad supported app developers can't make any significant money on Android.

But if you like mostly free apps plastered with ads as developers make a (likely failed) attempt at paying the bills, get an Android.

Maybe this will change in a couple years. I'll wait and see.

 

[BC2009]

Wait. All these bloggers are quoting (and enhancing) a New York POST article? That's like repeating the National Enquirer. I'm shocked the article didn't claim that UFOs from Planet Nostradamus were at fault. I want a better source

Ok... how about I cite this more recent article which states a 16% return rate? They site ITG Investment Research as the source while still pointing at the NY Post article.

 

[kdarling]

Ok... how about I cite this more recent article which states a 16% return rate? They site ITG Investment Research as the source while still pointing at the NY Post article.

Yes, thank you.

Except... now some reporters (e.g.here, here) are starting to print suspicions that ITG wildly inflated the return rate to help Apple.

Samsung has publicly stated that the Tab return rate is less than 2%.

 

[Rodimus Prime]

Yes, thank you.

Except... now some reporters (e.g.here, here) are starting to print suspicions that ITG wildly inflated the return rate to help Apple.

Samsung has publicly stated that the Tab return rate is less than 2%.

and now you have proof of why number regrading anything Apple in a positive light are hard to trust.
Plus more proof of how much BS Apple puts out.

 

[BC2009]

and now you have proof of why number regrading anything Apple in a positive light are hard to trust.
Plus more proof of how much BS Apple puts out.

i did not see any proof -- just a denial and refute. Best Buy should publish their return rate on it.

 

[Rodimus Prime]

i did not see any proof -- just a denial and refute. Best Buy should publish their return rate on it.

let see Samsung publishes their return rate which is over all stores 2%
Apple publishes there which is around 2% and then repeats crap research done saying Samsung is at 15-16%. You throw that in with the other crap Apple has been caught spitting out and shown to be wrong it shows yet again more BS from Apple. Apple BS list is pretty long and this just add to a already long and growing list.

 

[rdowns]

Yes, thank you.

Except... now some reporters (e.g.here, here) are starting to print suspicions that ITG wildly inflated the return rate to help Apple.

Samsung has publicly stated that the Tab return rate is less than 2%.

Odd how Samsung knows their return rate but not their sell through rate.

 

[kdarling]

Odd how Samsung knows their return rate but not their sell through rate.

*grin*

Ever listen to an Apple quarterly call? Same kind of close-to-the-vest talk.

The entire Q&A section is all about reporters and analysts trying to pin down Apple execs on production numbers and costs, end user sales vs channel inventory, royalty revenue, patent costs, future projects, etc. All they usually get are vague handwaving phrases.

Companies like to dance around such details. Either they say "we can't give that info" or they give a PR sentence that has the same meaning, or they give a related or subcategory number that spins things in a good light.

They want the headlines to always give the big, nice numbers

 

[BC2009]

let see Samsung publishes their return rate which is over all stores 2%
Apple publishes there which is around 2% and then repeats crap research done saying Samsung is at 15-16%. You throw that in with the other crap Apple has been caught spitting out and shown to be wrong it shows yet again more BS from Apple. Apple BS list is pretty long and this just add to a already long and growing list.

huh?
[re-reads post and tries to piece together meaning of run-on jumbled grammar]

ok, i think i gather you either hate Apple or work for Samsung or both. after reading this post and many of your other posts, it seems that you jump on anything that is anti-Apple as if it was fact. and you dismiss anything that puts Apple in a positive light as fabrication or exaggeration. one has to wonder why a kid like you wastes his time reading this forum.

that said.... i think some folks in the industry (including myself) would like some very simple answers from samsung. you can read this blog post if you like for what we are looking for. samsung claiming that their executive said that sales were "quite smooth" is more like describing their preference for peanut butter than unit sales (as I have said before). they have yet to come out and say:

1) We sold X units to actual paying customers in 2010
2) We had X units returned by actual paying customers in 2010

sure I would like to see ITG's data as well -- that would be great. but right now Samsung seems to be in "denial/no-comment" mode. apple takes 13 days to diagnose a supposed antenna problem and people cry foul, yet Samsung can't seem to come clean on the actual number of Galaxy Tabs sold to real paying customers and the number of those that were returned by those customers. How hard is that? I'm sure their shareholders would like to know those answers.