I don't believe we'll see much in the way of decent productivity apps on the iPad simply because of Steve's refusal to permit "intermediate" software to produce iPhone/iPad apps. Here's what I posted at Macintouch yesterday:
With Steve's rejection of Kevin Miller's revMobile proposal (detailed below), it's become painfully evident that Steve must go.
I realize this is tantamount to heresy among those who bleed in six colors (like I do); however, without a true user-accessible programming language (like ruvRev's revMobile), the iPad and iPhone will be home to 99 cent throwaway software made by developers who, while they may know Objective-C, know almost nothing about what actually makes a good application. If you think I exaggerate, I invite you to carefully examine the offerings at the App Store and you will find, as did I, that most everything up there is crap. There! I've said it: The emperor has no clothes. (There are a few good apps: Goodreader immediately comes to mind.)
So where does Steve come down on all this? According to Kevin, even though revMobile will produce 100% native code indistinguishable from apps made using Apple's Objective-C, it's still not good enough. What is the technical argument? There is none.
Thank you, Steve, for bringing Apple back from the dead. You served your purpose well, just like Lee Iaccoca brought Chrysler back. However, Lee didn't know when to leave and hung around way too long. Steve, you don't seem to see the forest for the trees. If you were truly serious about making the iPad magical, you'd let ordinary users write apps for it. Jean-Louis Gassee was right - we do need a user-accessible programming language. He said that in 1987 (at the MacWorld Expo Keynote, IIRC) and HyperCard was the closest thing we had to it. Twenty-three years later we have an IDE developer who is offering to craft his product so it meets, exactly, what you have demanded: Native code iPad apps. But it seems the end result isn't what you want; rather, what is important is that the developer "do it your way" rather than "produce a great app".
So, while it pains me to write these words, it's time for you to go, Steve.