iPad's 'Cannibalization' of Notebook Computers Disputed

[MacRumors]

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Market research firm NPD has released the results of a new survey disputing the common assertion that Apple's iPad is 'cannibalizing' the PC notebook industry. According to the survey, only 13% of iPad customers made their purchase instead of buying a PC. A larger target for the iPad has been e-readers, with 24% of iPad purchasers reporting that they replaced a planned e-reader purchase with the iPad.

The survey also unsurprisingly revealed that iPad purchasers are more likely than the general population to own other Apple products, with 38% of iPad purchasers also owning an iPhone and 48% owning a Mac. The survey has, however, seen a slight dip in Mac ownership from the initial wave, moving from 50% in the first two months of availability to 45% in more recent months, indicating that the iPad's appeal seems to be broadening beyond the core base of Apple fans.

"Early adopters, like iPad owners, follow a traditional pattern of consumer behavior; they purchase products because they want them, not because they need them," said Stephen Baker, vice president of industry analysis at NPD. "However, as Apple increases iPad distribution and consumer interest peaks, the profile of an iPad owner is much more likely to mirror the overall tech population. When that does happen other tech products with similar usage profiles as the iPad, such as notebooks, netbooks, and e-readers will come under increased pressure from the iPad. Until then, however, most iPad sales are likely to be incremental additional technology devices in the home, rather than a one-for-one replacement of a planned purchase."

Best Buy CEO Brian Dunn made headlines earlier this month with his ambiguous claims that the iPad was cannibalizing sales of notebook PCs by "as much as 50%". Dunn and Best Buy quickly back-pedaled, although he and Best Buy president Mike Vitelli have continued to confuse things with their follow-up comments.

NPD's Stephen Baker has also written a blog post highlighting some results from the iPad owner survey such as what users are doing with the iPad (Internet browsing, email, and games), their likes (portability, easy Wi-Fi connections, e-reading, and apps), and their dislikes (lack of USB ports, printing, and multi-tasking).

Article Link: iPad's 'Cannibalization' of Notebook Computers Disputed

 

[ThisIsNotMe]

I think ill believe the guy who has actual sales data.

 

[alent1234]

the best buy CEO made his comments right about the time the iPad came to Best Buy. he was trying to get the herd instinct stimulated. everyone is buying it so i better get it as well

 

[chrmjenkins]

He should have known better than to give hard numbers. Vague terms like some, significant etc. are much better in that you have a lesser chance of needing to recant.

 

[IMPMAC]

while he is true, most of the things we buy are not things that we actually "NEED"

 

[m4c1nt05h]

i must be missing something about these reports.

how can the ipad cannibalize Notebook sales when you need a computer to set it up? i guess more people have desktops than notebooks and are using them to set the ipads up?

 

[Full of Win]

I'd trust sales numbers over a poll any day of the week.

 

[NebulaClash]

heh, people sure are suddenly being defensive about iPad sales.

 

[ThisIsNotMe]

i must be missing something about these reports.

how can the ipad cannibalize Notebook sales when you need a computer to set it up? i guess more people have desktops than notebooks and are using them to set the ipads up?

Are you saying that households who own 1 computer never buy a 2nd?

Are you saying that households with 1 computer never plan on upgrading it?

Yes, you are missing something....

 

[aristotle]

i must be missing something about these reports.

how can the ipad cannibalize Notebook sales when you need a computer to set it up? i guess more people have desktops than notebooks and are using them to set the ipads up?

You answered your own question. I had a MBP (early 2006) and I gave it away because I bought an iPad and I found that I was using my iMac at home and iPhone on the road but I needed a bigger screen so I did not "upgrade" my to a newer MBP.

 

[sushi]

I think that it's a bit too early to say for sure. Let's wait and see what the situation looks like a year after the iPad was introduced.

Also, how are the Android devices going to affect the Notebook/Netbook market?

most of the things we buy are not things that we actually "NEED"

Say it isn't so .... please.

 

[kennmac]

only 13% of iPad customers made their purchase instead of buying a PC

This is a misleading statement. Just because customers were not intending to purchase a PC, does not mean that the iPad has not replaced this share of the market. If a customer responds that they had no intention to purchase a notebook PC, this can simply mean that the market is changing, there are newer and more convenient alternatives to suit their needs, and thusly, notebook PC's were not being considered in their search. The means the newer technology, (ie. the iPad, eReaders) has vastly changed the market we're used to, and does not necessarily mean that customers are still interested in notebooks the way they always were.

Markets change, get over it.

 

[gsmumbo]

Wait, from what I understood the Best Buy CEO had clarified to say that he was talking about netbooks, not notebooks. In fact all the comparisons I have heard have been about netbooks.

 

[herbhalstead]

well - I sold my iPad to get a Macbook Pro... I wonder how prevalent that is.

 

[GQB]

i must be missing something about these reports.

how can the ipad cannibalize Notebook sales when you need a computer to set it up? i guess more people have desktops than notebooks and are using them to set the ipads up?

um, because you can use a desktop, not just a notebook?

 

[Ping Guo]

There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.

 

[reckless2k2]

So 13% bought an iPad instead of a PC.

I wonder how many of the total iPad purchasers will forgo buying/upgrading any computers in their homes within the next year based on their iPad purchase. Obviously, that data would have to be collected a few months after purchase.

My point being that I think most purchasers will find that they will use their desktops, laptops, and portable devices far less as a result of the iPad purchase. This could lead to future cannibalization.

Just a thought.

 

[m4c1nt05h]

You answered your own question. I had a MBP (early 2006) and I gave it away because I bought an iPad and I found that I was using my iMac at home and iPhone on the road but I needed a bigger screen so I did not "upgrade" my to a newer MBP.

ok, that's what i thought. makes sense.

 

[JGowan]

Who bought/buys an iPad (or computer for that matter) for one function? Did the survey allow for multiple choices or only one? I know I sat up and took notice when Steve Jobs demo'd the iPad in late January and said it would do 7 things better than either a smartphone or a laptop:

Email
Internet
Photos
Games
Music
Video
eBooks

Then I knew that the App store would bring that number way up and pre-ordered. I have never looked back or regretted the purchase (and I bought the 3G/64GB model.) Money well spent.

 

[GQB]

All I can really judge by is our own experience.
We have a modern iMac (ours) and an pre-Intel iMac (daughter's.)
We'll need to replace our daughter's soon, and not long ago we would have probably gotten her a laptop to start high school.
But I've been using the iPad since rollout, and frankly laptops are no longer a part of the equation. My desktop use has dropped 90%.
We may get a 27" iMac and give her our current one, but the only reason for that is the bigger monitor for slingbox viewing.
By the time she starts high school next year, I guarantee that she'll be able to do everything she needs remotely with an iPad and bluetooth. I asked specifically, and no one in the house has any interest in a laptop now. Its desktop or iPad.

So for us, the iPad has definitely eaten one laptop sale.

YMMV.

 

[PBUser167]

There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.

My favorite is that "figures don't lie, but liars figure".

 

[Thex1138]

well - I sold my iPad to get a Macbook Pro... I wonder how prevalent that is.

I bought my iPad, sold my PC Laptop and bought MBP... in that order...

 

[callme]

Since when does 'NEED" come in to buying an iPad, it is a 'WANT' device!!

 

[Vulpinemac]

well - I sold my iPad to get a Macbook Pro... I wonder how prevalent that is.

I haven't used my iBook or my MacBook Pro since I bought my iPad. Even when I took both on vacation, my wife used the MBP only once and I never touched it.

My primary computer is an iMac Extreme driving dual displays.

 

[jclardy]

i must be missing something about these reports.

how can the ipad cannibalize Notebook sales when you need a computer to set it up? i guess more people have desktops than notebooks and are using them to set the ipads up?

Or people already own an older notebook or desktop and instead of upgrading the bought an iPad...