Title should be revised: iPad's Cannibalization ... CONFIRMED.
heh, people sure are suddenly being defensive about iPad sales.
Wait, from what I understood the Best Buy CEO had clarified to say that he was talking about netbooks, not notebooks. In fact all the comparisons I have heard have been about netbooks.
There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.
As is usual, there's always more to the issue, after we scratch the surface. Frankly, even if the number is
"only" 13%, that's not a zero and thus, is a
confirmation of the claim of cannibalization.
So 13% bought an iPad instead of a PC.
I wonder how many of the total iPad purchasers will forgo buying/upgrading any computers in their homes within the next year based on their iPad purchase. Obviously, that data would have to be collected a few months after purchase.
My point being that I think most purchasers will find that they will use their desktops, laptops, and portable devices far less as a result of the iPad purchase. This could lead to future cannibalization.
Just a thought.
Or people already own an older notebook or desktop and instead of upgrading the bought an iPad...
Both are good insights, as it is recognizing that computers/iPads are not one time use disposable items (like a hamburger), but carry a utilization lifecycle. With an iPad in the house, I've found it to be is far less compelling to go finally buy a MacBookAir to replace the old 12" G4 PowerBook.
That is right, people with different expectations than the early adopters really would like to have that USB port. This data highlights one very important thing, early adopters don't care about functionality as long as they get the flavor of something new. As it is the iPad is a minimalist machine that isn't going to have broad appeal in the face of the on coming competition. Supporting USB doesn't sound like much of an advantage but it is. Given the correct drivers it makes for an extremely flexible platform. I'm really hoping Apple wises up here and implements a USB port with at least some generic devices support.
Thus sayeth all of the cynical technogeeks (sic) sitting on the fence because they're tempted, but they would also like a little more 'something'.
The first fallacy is that while a punchlist of features does tend to indicate what a product's capability is, it is not 100% deterministic. And Apple has done this enough times that any regular reader here should recognize this as a fallacy and thus resist the temptation to repeat past mistakes.
The second fallacy is of course that there's always something better around the corner. The slippery slope is that one waits forever and thus never gets anything. Granted, it does pay to wait when there's a high rate of change...but even this has its limits - for example, digital cameras are still undergoing a lot of change, who doesn't already own at least one digital camera?
In any event those stratospheric satisfaction numbers are likely to slide dramatically once people realize how much money is laid out for iPad and the little bit they get in return. I for one was actually hoping iPad could have effectively replaced my laptop, but that can't happen right now. The lack of RAM and ports (one USB would have done nicely) makes the thing useless for anything other than entertaining simple minds. Not that that is bad as I could use a little entertainment myself.
Ever heard of the Pareto Principle? How about its expressed as the Law of Diminishing Returns? The iPad doesn't fully replace a real PC, but it does satisfy the 80% (or more) solution, while offering some other distinct features to offset. If that is better/worse is ultimately up to the consumer to decide if its worth it ... and FYI, something that's not evident on "punchlist" comparisons are the comparative worth of interface elements such as battery life and boot-up time.
Of course, this does assume that {iPad = notebook PC}, which is a paradigm that isn't necessarily correct.
I suppose a few minutes from now I will get to enertain myself with early adopters telling me how great iPad is. To head off a few I allready know the devices good points fellas. What I'm trying to say is the satisfaction you guys are rolling in isn't likely to be shared by people wearing clear glasses. Me, myself & I have decided to wait this rev out and wait for rev two and the rest of the market to catch up.
So....you're claiming that you're the
only objective person in the whole wide world??
The heck with your supposedly 'clear' glasses, because your bedroom definitely has a rose-colored mirror.
Why? Because early adopters pay a heavy price, I know because I was one back in the day. We are talking Mac Plus here with a 68000 CPU and eventually an external HD.
Sorry, but you weren't an early adopter with a Mac Plus: the early adopters were those who 2 years earlier bought the 128K Mac, or who bought the 512K (and 512K Enhanced, sort of). Historically, the Mac Plus was really more of the 'Early Mainstream' in the product lifecycle ... particularly if yours was platinum instead of beige.
Old age has taught me the wisdom of two things. 1) Waiting for the market to stabilize is real smart. 2) Buying a computing device that doesn't do everything you need is stupid.
And yet having the wisdom of the ages also means recognizing that no issue is so simplistic and can thus be viewed from multiple perspectives. For example, your #2 suggests that you view the iPad as
"less than a Laptop". However, a different viewpoint is that the iPad is also
"more than a Kindle".
Neither view is wrong: merely different, and the consumer's decision is based partly upon what their needs are...and one problem if you're after a "Do Everything" device is that you fall into the trap of
"Jack of All Trades, Yet Master of None" compromise on product design.
Most importantly a stabilized market will tell you which feature sets are most in demand as the sales will go to devices with those features. It is easy for Apple to win in a market where they have no competition, it is another thing when there are multiple alternatives really trying to innovate.
History tells us that for roughly the past decade, the Tablet market was Windows-based and it was effectively stable. Unfortunately, that stability was because there was little consumer demand for the product that they were selling.
The specific reasons why can be debated, but there's ample evidence to suggest that it was because they attempted to do exactly what you claim to be seeking, which is the specs & features based "Do All". It was because of that and the resulting compromises that it entailed that the result was a product that excelled at nothing. In other words, they failed because they were promoting a product with effectively no strengths and only weaknesses.
If the iPad isn't what you want, then so be it. However, don't come complaining in another 2-5 years that the exact product that you want still doesn't exist ... I'm still waiting for my Flying Car and Gill-based scuba system that were promised to me in Popular Science magazine back in the 1960s.
13% is still a big number, actually.
Any value between 1% and 49% serves to affirm the BestBuy's CEO's comment.
Not going to Cannibalize Netbook and Notebook sales until there is a Flash Solution.
Sorry to be the one to inform you, but
it already has cannibalized the sales of competing products, with or without you.
-hh
