Wow this thread was nuts - I read the whole thing. How you can see 7th in the world in the world as a complete flop is crazy to me. Then again, trolls going to troll.
If we believe the supply chain reporting, then yes Apple appeared to have significantly overestimated the demand for the mini. But this doesnt mean people who wanted a mini were wrong, just that the demand at this time wasnt as big as Apple predicted. While individuals on here might have predicted it would be a high seller, i think most people who wanted one, just felt like there was a decent market for it. 7th in the world, is a pretty decent market. For all we know the basis for Apple's estimate could have been unrelated factors to form size, such as Apple may have thought due to the pandemic, buyers might have bought the mini due to its lower cost but with most of the premium features. Or they might have thought it would be over by the time it shipped and thought commuters would appreciate it. I definitely think the advantage of the mini form factor is less appealing when you are stuck at home.
I havent seen any mention, in this thread, that its really likely that the launch of the SE about 6 months or so earlier really cannibalised a lot of sales of the mini. A lot of people holding out for a smaller phone thought that would be the next SE (look at the comments on the SE launch section), and when the next SE was not the small phone of their dreams, I think a lot of people gave up waiting and caved on the SE or something else. So, i think there is probably a decent contingent of people who want an 12 mini but cant justify it because they recently caved and bought something else sick of waiting for a mini form factor. Realistically, if the mini is an ongoing model this isnt an issue, they'll eventually upgrade and join, but I think it did suck some of the momentum out of the mini.
It's also clear, that the market for a small phone is mixed, perhaps 50-50, between those who want a small phone with every feature, and those who want a small phone because they think it should be cheap (but for some reason didnt get an SE?). I find the it should be small and cheap crowd strange because miniaturisation usually costs more, not less, of course Apple could use older and cheaper components, but why. I mean buy a 12 mini when the 13mini launches then. I guess the thinking behind the cheap crowd is, they want it small because they barely use it, so they just want the bare minimum for a decent price. I think the small but premium crowd actually do use their phone a lot, but probably not for consuming content, and or just favour the reachability of the phone over viewing size. But looking at people's posts, its kind of stupid to be like, it would have sold more if it was cheaper, no **** sherlock, same with every product basically.
I also note a lot of comments on here about how the telephone is better than a wide. I think Apple's research shows this is not true for most users. Personally, in my experience on an 11 pro, and previous phones with telephotos, i actually find the telephoto performance very disappointing and not distinguishable in many settings from cropping in on the regular. I really wish the telephone was as goods as the 'regular' lens.
My argument is that Apple severely overestimated demand, and when it didn't sell anywhere near expectations they had to severely cut production of it, and that puts the iPhone mini in jeopardy.
I agree with Eugw, that despite being a top 7 selling phone, there is some risk that Apple changes it plans long term for the mini based on it significantly underperforming expectations. But part of that depends on what their expectations were for future launches, perhaps they thought only this launch would be better.
Then they would also have to consider they have sunk costs already in this formfactor, so if it remains profitable it may makes sense to keep it for the time being in the line up until the next full design overhaul. Then they also have to factor in does it improve sales of the higher end models, is it a wedge that pushes people to spending more on the larger phones. So the calculation for them could be quite complex.
I also wonder, given supply chain constraints for electronics globally whether part of the downscale for the mini production, might be because they want to use some of those components in more expensive phones with better margins.
Then they also could retool the mini as many have suggested into the more budget phone.
I actually think 7th in the world, is better than I would have predicted based on recent reporting and suggests 1) Apple's internal predictions were likely insanely optimistic, and 2)
Finally, on the production reports, even if we do believe them. Whose to say the reason is significant under performance. Perhaps, it was most economical to run it at a large scale for a few months before scaling it back so they could use that capacity for something else. I guess what i'm saying is, there is more than one reason why you might cut back production and only Apple knows why it (supposedly) did.