Become a MacRumors Supporter for $50/year with no ads, ability to filter front page stories, and private forums.
1.6% of 1,000,000 phones = 16,000 phones
16,000 x ~$500 phone = $8,000,000

Care to pay the difference on that "statistical dead heat"?

The phrase "statistical dead heat" explicitly questions the very existance of the difference.

So how can you put a price on something that may or may not exist? The odds that he owes you $8,000,000 are equal to the odds that you owe him that amount instead.

Not a bet I'd take.
 
Glass

Love the iOS platform but --- why in earth did they put glass on the back? Given you have to cover it up in order to protect something so fragile, even the aesthetics argument seems weak (though I am sure it is true).

I find it ironic that Apple is spending so much in making their laptops tougher and elegant (unibody) but then put such a relatively fragile material on their most mobile platform of all where it need not be.

If Apple built cars, I am sure they'd be wonderful to use and beautiful to look at -- but with glass covering everything from bumpers to upholstery.
 
Well I find two things interesting about this story. One, its ridiculous how much complaining be do in forums about how their phone doesn't work, or had to be taken back like three times, etc. etc. It goes to show you as a whole the iPhone is even more reliable than it gets credit for. No matter how bad yours may have been, its better for you than a Motorola or HTC ugly phone.

Second thing is the 13 percent over 12 percent accidental damage seems negligible considering the trade-off of the style of the iPhone. I would say that percentage point is more due to the size of the phone than anything. The iPhone 4 is considerably smaller than most smart phones, and without a bumper it is a bit slick to hold onto the sides. I know my wife has dropped hers at least a half dozen times off the couch, or onto the floor and with the bumper and clear shields its still perfect.
 
I've found that it's much more difficult for me to drop my iPhone 4 than it was my 3G.

The curved back is just an invitation to slide.

The straight and somewhat awkward edges of the iPhone 4 keep it locked in my hand.
 
Well I find two things interesting about this story. One, its ridiculous how much complaining be do in forums about how their phone doesn't work, or had to be taken back like three times, etc. etc. It goes to show you as a whole the iPhone is even more reliable than it gets credit for. No matter how bad yours may have been, its better for you than a Motorola or HTC ugly phone.

Second thing is the 13 percent over 12 percent accidental damage seems negligible considering the trade-off of the style of the iPhone. I would say that percentage point is more due to the size of the phone than anything. The iPhone 4 is considerably smaller than most smart phones, and without a bumper it is a bit slick to hold onto the sides. I know my wife has dropped hers at least a half dozen times off the couch, or onto the floor and with the bumper and clear shields its still perfect.

This percentage point may or may not acccurately reflect the merits of iPhone design. First, we all know that Apple has been replacing phones with broken glass quite willingly and these numbers would not be reflected in the stats mentioned in the article. Secondly, sertain percentage of phones suffer from an impact/event that no design could handle (run over by a car). If this percentage is high (say 10% out of 12%) this woul dmean that iPhone has 50% higher rate of damage in situations where design does matter (3% vs 2%).

Also, notice how these numbers do not correlate with another study that found that iPhone 4 has 100% higher rate of damage than iPhone 3GS.
 
I, for one, hope Apple goes to a different physical design for the next generation iPhone.

I don't believe in using the iPhone with a case, as I like to keep it simple and just slip the thing in and out of my pocket without any extra baggage attached.

I have a nearly 2 1/2 year old iPhone 3G that I've used in this way, and have dropped many times - even on concrete (!) without any damage at all so far other than slight scuff marks on the sides. It is a very rugged design, and after handling the iPhone 4 briefly in store - I doubt if it could stand up to what I will dish out over a two year period without a case getting in the way.

I am eligible to upgrade, but figure I should get three years of rugged use out of these things and will wait until next summer for the next gen model. I really want the retina display, but am hoping for a return to earlier form in physical design.
 
I suspect that quite a few iP4 owners may be quite obsessive about keeping their phones in an absolutely pristine state, and therefore if the phone suffers even minor cosmetic damage it may lead to a claim which would not be made with a less sublime design. If I insured my phone - which I do not - and got a noticeable scratch on it, I might well be tempted to drop it on purpose in order to get a replacement free of charge on the insurance. Just a thought.
 
I suspect that quite a few iP4 owners may be quite obsessive about keeping their phones in an absolutely pristine state, and therefore if the phone suffers even minor cosmetic damage it may lead to a claim which would not be made with a less sublime design. If I insured my phone - which I do not - and got a noticeable scratch on it, I might well be tempted to drop it on purpose in order to get a replacement free of charge on the insurance. Just a thought.

Great point.
 
This study is kind of ridiculous. How do you compare one model of phone vs. every model of a brand? HTC makes like 20 different models of phones...some may be more reliable than others.

Also since the iPhone 4 has only been out for 5 months, isn't it most likely that people are going to Apple and not to squaretrade with their problems that are not accident related? I always go to the manufacturer first.

I suspect that quite a few iP4 owners may be quite obsessive about keeping their phones in an absolutely pristine state, and therefore if the phone suffers even minor cosmetic damage it may lead to a claim which would not be made with a less sublime design. If I insured my phone - which I do not - and got a noticeable scratch on it, I might well be tempted to drop it on purpose in order to get a replacement free of charge on the insurance. Just a thought.

The problem with this is once you get your replacement, your policy is over. If I got a scratch on my iPhone, I would not purposefully break it to get a new one (which actually wouldn't even be new, it would be refurbished) but then if something happens accidentally down the line, your policy was already used.
 
I suspect that quite a few iP4 owners may be quite obsessive about keeping their phones in an absolutely pristine state, and therefore if the phone suffers even minor cosmetic damage it may lead to a claim which would not be made with a less sublime design.

This is true. My baby my iPhone 4. It still doesn't have a single scratch or dent on it anywhere.
 
This percentage point may or may not acccurately reflect the merits of iPhone design. First, we all know that Apple has been replacing phones with broken glass quite willingly and these numbers would not be reflected in the stats mentioned in the article. Secondly, sertain percentage of phones suffer from an impact/event that no design could handle (run over by a car). If this percentage is high (say 10% out of 12%) this woul dmean that iPhone has 50% higher rate of damage in situations where design does matter (3% vs 2%).

Amazing what the stats can say when you make up numbers.

These stats are meaningless as far as an overall failure rate for the iPhone or any other phone. They only reflect SquareTrade customers, not a random sample.

Also, notice how these numbers do not correlate with another study that found that iPhone 4 has 100% higher rate of damage than iPhone 3GS.

You mean the study linked in the first paragraph from the same company?
 
Second thing is the 13 percent over 12 percent accidental damage seems negligible considering the trade-off of the style of the iPhone.

I would say that 1 percentage point worse is far from negligible since I find the style FAR worse than the old style. I ordered one of those aluminum backs though, we'll see how that improves things. I hate the iPhone4 style, having had all four phones.
 
Research the term "extrapolation."

Yes you can also call this normalization, but what s the point after 5 months, or at least why comparing with phones that were released more than 12 months ago. They compare data that are not comparable.
 
These aren't "stats" they are just Squartrade's summary data

The stats themselves aren't terribly interesting to me (perkj brings up an excellent point about having all the other manufacturers' data lumped into single categories) but I still think the case issue is legit.
-snip-
Just random food for thought :)

Remember these aren't "stats". Square trade provided no tests of differences, just their summary data from their report records. These data are not an independent survey of phone failures. That would require randomly calling up smartphone owners and trying to balance your sampling across different phone types. Since they didn't do this, statistical tests may not even be appropriate. I have to say though, the fact that all their figures are made in Excel just further belittles my impression of the companies mathematical sophistication.

1.6% of 1,000,000 phones = 16,000 phones
16,000 x ~$500 phone = $8,000,000

Care to pay the difference on that "statistical dead heat"?

Point made in that the bottom line the insurance company feels would actually have little to do with actual statistical differences.

As for those interested in why the other companies' phone models were combined, see the full report for which models they looked at. Here's an excerpt:
"
Motorola: Droid, Droid X, Cliq
HTC: Nexus One, Evo, Droid Incredible, Aria, Hero
Blackberry: Curve, Bold, Storm, Torch, Pearl
Other Smart Phones includes phones from Samsung, LG, Palm, Nokia, Sony-Ericsson, and other minor manufacturers.
"
 
Amazing what the stats can say when you make up numbers.

These stats are meaningless as far as an overall failure rate for the iPhone or any other phone. They only reflect SquareTrade customers, not a random sample.



You mean the study linked in the first paragraph from the same company?

Yes. It was 4.7% (for iP4) vs 2.8% (3GS) - 70% difference. Now it's 12.2% vs 9.4% - 30% difference. It looks like iP4 got strongr since previous report :D
 
Yes you can also call this normalization, but what s the point after 5 months, or at least why comparing with phones that were released more than 12 months ago. They compare data that are not comparable.

You need to look up at it is done. Square trade would have enough data on hand across multiple phone to have a rough idea what their prediction rate will be with 1-2 months of data. With 5 months of date I am willing to bet it will be with in 0.1%.

Apple fanboys and girls need to suck it up and admit apple make really fragile stuff and a poor cell phone in terms of tough it is.
More proof apple choose to look pretty over being functional
 
Yes. It was 4.7% (for iP4) vs 2.8% (3GS) - 70% difference. Now it's 12.2% vs 9.4% - 30% difference. It looks like iP4 got strongr since previous report :D

Because they were looking at different things. A 4-month failure rate vs a 12-month failure rate. And they just guessed the iPhone 4 12-month failure rate. Like I said, it's meaningless.

And you used the HTC number (12.2%) instead of the iPhone 4 number (13.8%) in your calculation.
 
I dropped a cell phone once, back in the 90's. It didn't break.

It would be interesting to know how many iP4's were dropped while the owners showed them off to friends :rolleyes: A look at the demographics would be interesting, I bet the people dropping their phones are mostly kids.
 
Ugly phones not returned for scratches?

When you buy a beautiful product, is seems more likely that you want to return it if you scratch it or chip it. A BlackBerry likely will never be returned for a scratch or chip because it just doesn't matter. You don't expect as much from a utility device as a fantastic high tech wonder.
 
Register on MacRumors! This sidebar will go away, and you'll see fewer ads.