iPhone 7 Demand Has 'Peaked' as Shipments Forecasted to Decline Significantly Over Next Two Months

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Just two months after the iPhone 7 and iPhone 7 Plus launched, KGI Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo believes demand for the smartphones has "peaked" in line with a significant monthly shipment decline starting in November.

Kuo predicted Apple's overseas suppliers will revise down their iPhone shipments by 5-15% in November-December due to lower-than-expected demand stemming from a lack of significant improvements.
As the 4.7-inch iPhone 7, which accounts for a higher share of iPhone shipments, is in stock in the main global markets, we believe overall iPhone shipments have peaked. We think iPhone shipment forecasts will be revised down due to: (1) lower-than-expected demand due to a lack of spec surprises in the 4.7-inch iPhone 7; and (2) shorter times for delivering online orders of 5.5-inch iPhone 7 Plus, which implies slowing demand. We note that the out-of-stock phenomenon also results from fixed capacity, and is not only due to robust demand.
In a research note obtained by MacRumors, Kuo noted that the out-of-stock phenomenon that typically follows a new iPhone launch results from fixed capacity, and is not only due to robust demand. Kuo reiterated his forecast of a possible year-over-year iPhone shipment decline in the first quarter of 2017 due to the lower-than-expected demand and fierce competition in China.

Article Link: iPhone 7 Demand Has 'Peaked' as Shipments Forecasted to Decline Significantly Over Next Two Months
 

Bubba Satori

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Feb 15, 2008
4,726
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Wow, I thought the N7 inferno was going to be a huge boost to iPhone sales.
Wonder what the numbers would have looked like if the N7 hadn't self destructed?
Apple must be eternally grateful for Samsung's flustercluck.
Maybe Tim should have Jony put down Christmas tree design
and have him come up with a non-exploding washing machine.
 
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cdmoore74

macrumors 68020
Jun 24, 2010
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It only makes sense to buy an iPhone within a few weeks of release. I always believed in staggering the release dates; 4.7" at the beginning of the year and 5.5" in fall. But Apple prefers top heavy sales.
 

kemal

macrumors 68000
Dec 21, 2001
1,537
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I got my 7+ less than a week ago and it took five weeks. And it wasn't even black!

Apple could stand to have a few million extra available.
 

Mr. Dee

macrumors 68020
Dec 4, 2003
2,155
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Jamaica
I was tempted, but I honestly said to myself, do I really need this for what I do? The Plus model would have been my choice, but I honestly didn't see the benefit. I settled for a 2 TB external drive so I could backup my MacBook Pro I purchased last year. Maybe next year I might consider it when its discounted with the launch of the iPhone 8.
 

Mac 128

macrumors 603
Apr 16, 2015
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Wow. Didn't see his coming. /s

No, not really. This happens with every single iPhone release. But try and tell some people that. The key will be how many it sold at its peak compared to other releases. The Note 7 obviously gave it a boost, but the headphone jack likely cost them some too.
 
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Constable Odo

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Mar 28, 2008
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Why is Kuo to be believed? Why does his word carry more weight than Tim Cook's numbers? Would Tim Cook actually be lying about improving iPhone sales? I honestly don't understand how Kuo would have more insight to iPhone sales than any other analyst. Also his conclusions could be wrong. No significant upgrades brings about lower sales? What type of upgrade would boost sales? I'm willing to bet consumers aren't buying iPhones because they only intend to upgrade every so often and it's also possible that iPhone prices have increased globally and many more consumers can't afford to pay that much.

I think most Samsung Note 7 users are going to wait for the Note 8. No iPhone would have been a substitute for a Note 7 because the Note 7 has such a different feature set. That S-Pen may be a big deal to those users and the iPhone has nothing like that.
 

citysnaps

macrumors 603
Oct 10, 2011
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Wow, I thought the N7 inferno was going to be a huge boost to iPhone sales.
Wonder what the numbers would have looked like if the N7 hadn't self destructed?
Apple must be eternally grateful for Samsung's flustercluck.
Maybe Tim should have Jony put down Christmas tree design
and have him come up with a non-exploding washing machine.
A huge boost? No. I would have expected a small number of additional sales as smartphone owners are captive to an eco system and there are other Android choices. And, Samsung was offering large cash incentives to people turning in their recalled Note 7 units towards the purchase of another Samsung phone. Also, judging by the only 2.5m Note 7 units sold in the first two weeks globally, the sales rate is not as large as iPhone.
 
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Constable Odo

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Mar 28, 2008
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I highly doubt it.
There must be plenty of investors who already believe iPhone sales will tank significantly. Right now, Apple is being dumped faster than any other major tech stock on Wall Street. There has to be a very solid reason for that. Apple is really looking bad and Tim Cook can't stop it.
 

BootsWalking

macrumors 65816
Feb 1, 2014
1,259
7,281
Still tryna figure out why anyone bought this phone at all...
I bought mine because it only cost $175, which was $250 for the used iPhone 6 I bought to use as the trade-in for AT&T's free iPhone 7 upgrade offer, minus the $75 gift card I got from Samsclub for buying the phone on the day of the release.
 

vertical smile

macrumors 601
Sep 23, 2014
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revise down their iPhone shipments by 5-15% in November-December due to lower-than-expected demand stemming from a lack of significant improvements.
Not surprising, considering the best newest feature for the non-plus version is the new colors.
 

normang

macrumors member
Mar 11, 2007
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Maple Grove, MN
I am waiting for the analysis of how wrong or right Kuo is. He may get closer in some cases than others, but to keep quoting his every breath gets old, when he actually says something that can actually be validated, let me know..
 

NIKKG

macrumors 6502
Feb 23, 2012
333
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The whole smartphone market has peaked in general. Iphones and Androids they are all pretty good and long lasting these days, plus when you remove the carrier subsidies, than people just aren't going to rush for a new phone every year like before.
 
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fourthtunz

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Jul 23, 2002
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Why is Kuo to be believed? Why does his word carry more weight than Tim Cook's numbers? Would Tim Cook actually be lying about improving iPhone sales? I honestly don't understand how Kuo would have more insight to iPhone sales than any other analyst. Also his conclusions could be wrong. No significant upgrades brings about lower sales? What type of upgrade would boost sales? I'm willing to bet consumers aren't buying iPhones because they only intend to upgrade every so often and it's also possible that iPhone prices have increased globally and many more consumers can't afford to pay that much.

I think most Samsung Note 7 users are going to wait for the Note 8. No iPhone would have been a substitute for a Note 7 because the Note 7 has such a different feature set. That S-Pen may be a big deal to those users and the iPhone has nothing like that.
You can buy a pen for the iPhone for $4 but why do people want a pen?
I'm just asking, what does the s-pen do thats so great?