And this is the one for me for sure. i look at the pebble watch its ok, but the apple watch will do a lot more. plus i like the look of the apple watch better than the pebble watch, and it will be more compatible with the all the apple products in my home. Also it will match my IPh6+ 64GB in space grey very well.
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iPhone and iPad Remain Popular With Teens, Interest in Apple Watch Tepid Ahead of Unveiling
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And this is the one for me for sure. i look at the pebble watch its ok, but the apple watch will do a lot more. plus i like the look of the apple watch better than the pebble watch, and it will be more compatible with the all the apple products in my home. Also it will match my IPh6+ 64GB in space grey very well.
I find this opinion to be rare, most of the people I've encountered with an SP3 love it, but obviously this is all anecdotal so I'll see myself out
Main point of a 'SMARTwatch' is to communication information from your phone? hmmmmmm. OK then...
Let's turn that into 'People' shall we.
We have the professor, and I'm the messenger.
You ask me something, I've no idea. I run to the professor, ask him the question, he tells me the answer, I write it down, run back to you and show you the answer.
Am I the 'SMART one'
Dumb watch could be more accurate if it needs to keep asking.
Like they used to call Dumb Terminals that got information from the Servers.
Also true, unfortunately. Mobile phones are already a huge (and unforeseen) plague in that regard, and I can't think of any way to stop it. Legislation certainly hasn't worked, so far. Maybe they can come up with a mandatory technical solution, like making it impossible to use the device while it's in a moving car, or on a bike. Probably piss many people off, but it'd be a life-saver.
Are high school students permitted to carry iPhones in class? Since the watch needs that to operate and kids spend a lot of time in school, this would be a key question.
I hear what you're saying and I agree to a point. But there are definitely two different types of people... Regardless, yes people do spend tons of cash and that's what makes it a multi billion dollar industry. I myself don't work out much but I do have a very physical job. I spend a couple hundred bucks on supplements monthly though. No gym membership, no fuelband, nothing. I just weigh myself occasionally and say "okay time to chill on the burgers" haha
Not surprised... I think this is more common outside of the U.S. where there is more awareness of the Android platform.
One of the things I like most about these forums (fora, for the academics among you) is watching all the naysayers predict "epic fail" for some Apple product and then watching that product become an overwhelming success. Then I can gloat with the assurance that I knew better!
Most recently this was demonstrated by the crowd who predicted that the new Mac Pro would fall flat on its face in the marketplace. Didn't happen. It's an outstanding product and lives up to my expectations for it. Hasn't failed in the marketplace either, by a long shot.
I look forward to the same thing happening with the Apple watch. I'm looking forward to that as much as I am looking forward to getting the watch itself. I want that space gray model with the stainless steel body and link band. Yes!
As to high schoolers, I don't think they are really the target market for the watch, though I'm sure some will go for it. Up here, the iPhone is by far the more popular choice among the youngsters. But then, this state (Vermont) has the fifth highest educational attainment in the country according to DOE statistics, so you might expect that superior products would find a market.
So you naysayers and Samesung lovers just keep it up. It will be sweet to see you all shown up!
Most recently this was demonstrated by the crowd who predicted that the new Mac Pro would fall flat on its face in the marketplace. Didn't happen. It's an outstanding product and lives up to my expectations for it. Hasn't failed in the marketplace either, by a long shot.
I look forward to the same thing happening with the Apple watch. I'm looking forward to that as much as I am looking forward to getting the watch itself. I want that space gray model with the stainless steel body and link band. Yes!
As to high schoolers, I don't think they are really the target market for the watch, though I'm sure some will go for it. Up here, the iPhone is by far the more popular choice among the youngsters. But then, this state (Vermont) has the fifth highest educational attainment in the country according to DOE statistics, so you might expect that superior products would find a market.
So you naysayers and Samesung lovers just keep it up. It will be sweet to see you all shown up!
And why not, oh wise one? A teenager can have a part-time job. They'll know the value of money and how many hours it took them to afford what they're buying. Let's say they're working 20 hours a week, 10 dollars an hour... taking home 150 a week after tax. Week 1, car payment. Week 2, insurance and gas money. Weeks 3 and 4, whatever they want to do with it -- movies, video games, eating out... it's their money. It isn't like they have rent or utility bills. That's actually damn good parenting. You have your own money, you've decided that you value an item at what you'd pay for it, you can spend it.
...And even the cheapest watches are going to cost roughly the same, unless you get some Walmart Timex piece of garbage.
I wonder where these kids were when they asked if they are planning on buying the watch.
Teenagers generally don't spend $350+ on watches, they are more likely going to spend $100 to maybe $200 on a watch and that's typically going to be the parents that actually buy the watch since most teenagers don't work for a living and most of their technology they use is bought by their parents.
Teenagers generally don't even wear watches.
how did you transform 349 into 400? MATH IS HARD!
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speak for yourself -- faster is better, and thinner means lighter.
i don't need my iPad OS to include new productivity software -- thats what apps are for. my iPad does its jobs to be done very well (web, apps, email). i don't need or want gimmicks just for the sake of newness. luckily, that isn't how apple rolls.
I'm not sure how the projected GPS systems will affect this as well, but I can't see it as being the answer to distracted driving. I see it as unfortunately another way to be distracted.
Flop? No, I don't think it's going to flop. Is it going to sell as much as the iPhone? NO. Only a small percentage of iPhone users will buy at least one smart watch. They are predicting that Apple will sell around 10 Million of these things in the first year, which isn't that bad considering. If they sell less than 1 million of them, that would be a flop, but 10+ Million units in the first year would be considered a success with this type of product.
Think of it this way, in the traditional watch world, the Swiss watch makers sold a total of 20+ Million watches over the last year. That's the total number of watches made in Switzerland. if Apple can sell 10 Million units, that's not bad for one company to sell.
Look at this way, how much money do they make on each watch and how much R&D have they spent + the amount for the mfg of the product?
Typically when a company is introducing a new product category, they have to see how well it's going to do and how much profit, the first couple of years are more of recouping the R&D expense and they need to sell X number to break even and then they can realize the actual profits.
For this type of product, if they can sell in the 10% of the iPhone sales is AppleWatch sales, that would be a successful product since they are currently selling about 150 to 200 Million iPhones a year and they are ramping up yearly production. No one is expecting smart watches to equal the number of smartphones being sold.
We won't know how much of a success this product has for at least 1 year or more. We also don't know how often the product will be updated and what the expected lifespan is of each model. In the iPhone world, each model has about 4 years of lifespan if you look at the number of OS updates it gets. Most people generally replace their iPhone every 2 to 3 years on average.
I think the Smartwatch category is definitely smaller than the smartphone market, but still is going to attract a certain number of users and that's still to be determined.
Professional athletes, and people that are really health conscious that want to keep track of their workouts, etc. are more likely going to buy into the Smartwatch category along with gadget freaks that just like using these types of gadgets.
I think once the product is on the market for a year, we'll know how much of a success it will be, and then we have to look at how the sales ramp up/down over the course of the next 10 years.
But to say it's a flop would be premature at this time.
This is an accessory type product rather than a major market type product.
If Apple sells 10 Million in the first year, that's $3.5 Billion in gross sales. Would you say that a company that has yearly sales of $3.5 Billion to be a successful company? Most would LOVE to have that much in sales, especially if they have about $700 Million in Net Profit.
Beats Electronics only had about $1.5 Billion in sales in 2013 and they opened their doors in 2006, so it was after 7 years of being in business that they reaches $1.5 Billion in sales. If Apple sells 10 Million AppleWatches in the first year and they do in excess of $3.5 Billion, then most people would see that as a successful product. Heck, Apple only sold about 6.1 Million of the first generation iPhone back in 2007 when it was first introduced.
Nobody is interested in buying an AppleWatch? I wouldn't make that statement, that's based on pure ignorance. I think you seem to be only listening to the Android fanboys.
Main point of a 'SMARTwatch' is to communication information from your phone? hmmmmmm. OK then...
Let's turn that into 'People' shall we.
We have the professor, and I'm the messenger.
You ask me something, I've no idea. I run to the professor, ask him the question, he tells me the answer, I write it down, run back to you and show you the answer.
Am I the 'SMART one'
Dumb watch could be more accurate if it needs to keep asking.
Like they used to call Dumb Terminals that got information from the Servers.
Uhh it kinda is the main point because by design that's what most of the features do not just with the Apple Watch but with almost all "smart watches".
Just because it doesn't do what YOU want it exactly to do means it' a "dumb" watch ? Yeah Okay
You sound like the non-familiar first time smartphone users who I've heard call a smart phone "dumb" because it personally doesn't do what they want it to do the way they want it done.
It communicates and transmits extensive information from you "smart" phone which a regular watch cannot do. I guess that's why it's called a "smart" watch.
Maybe I'm just completely tired of hearing this analyst's name, but he has TWO product names wrong in this spreadsheet.
It's not called iWatch, it's Apple Watch or
Watch.
It's not iPad Mini, it's iPad mini.
This guy is supposed to be a professional. Is it that difficult to get product names correct?
It's not called iWatch, it's Apple Watch or
Watch.It's not iPad Mini, it's iPad mini.
This guy is supposed to be a professional. Is it that difficult to get product names correct?
Do you know why teens said they weren't that interested in the Apple Watch? It's because Gene Munster conducted his pole last Spring long before the Apple Watch was announced.
He was asking teens if they wanted something that not only didn't exist, no one had any idea what it could be (except maybe an Apple branded version of one of those Android geek guy watches).
Well duh, no wonder teens responded this way.
Teens cannot afford expensive cell phones. But they have them.
Teens cannot afford expensive shoes. But they buy them.
Teens will be buying the Apple Watch just like millions of other people.
The only thing we can confidently predict in terms of the future, is whatever Gene Munster predicts, will be incorrect. Okay maybe he's right 5% of the time. But my Magic Eight ball has a way better prediction record than Gene.
He was asking teens if they wanted something that not only didn't exist, no one had any idea what it could be (except maybe an Apple branded version of one of those Android geek guy watches).
Well duh, no wonder teens responded this way.
Teens cannot afford expensive cell phones. But they have them.
Teens cannot afford expensive shoes. But they buy them.
Teens will be buying the Apple Watch just like millions of other people.
The only thing we can confidently predict in terms of the future, is whatever Gene Munster predicts, will be incorrect. Okay maybe he's right 5% of the time. But my Magic Eight ball has a way better prediction record than Gene.
If they were smart, they would have conducted the survey amongst different age groups, socioeconomic background and see what the numbers were. obviously, the average teenager doesn't PAY for their own smartphone, that's paid for by their parents, very few teenagers under 18 actually have jobs. Now, I'm sure a small percentage of kids with fairly wealthy and tech savvy parents will buy them for their kids, but I don't think this product was really designed for kids. It's more designed for adults, professional athletes, people in the healthcare industry and those that simply like wearable gadgets. I don't think this is going to take the world by storm and have more than 10 to maybe 20% market share as compared to the number of iPhones they sell.
The biggest issue I think is going to be what their respective life span is, and how often they expect people to replace these things or if they expect people to collect them much like some watch owners collect watches.
Let's do a analysis of iPhone users. How many NEW iPhone users are there a year? At what rate is it growing/not growing, etc. Why is that important? Because if this product has a longer useful lifespan than an iPhone, then people aren't going to replace these things as often and they need to attract more buyers somehow. I don't see them attracting much more than 10% market penetration over the course of a 5 year period. Apple sold 150 Million iPhones last year and so many of them were just replacing earlier models. 10% is 15 Million AppleWatches, which is about what they are expecting over the course of 2015. How many iPhones are they planning on selling in the next 12 months? 190 Million, so the year after, they might hit 19 Million units? I don't know if they can do that unless these watches become yearly refreshes, but I don't think they will refriesh them once a year unless it's cosmetic, which is doubtful.
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Main point of a 'SMARTwatch' is to communication information from your phone? hmmmmmm. OK then...
Let's turn that into 'People' shall we.
We have the professor, and I'm the messenger.
You ask me something, I've no idea. I run to the professor, ask him the question, he tells me the answer, I write it down, run back to you and show you the answer.
Am I the 'SMART one'
Dumb watch could be more accurate if it needs to keep asking.
Like they used to call Dumb Terminals that got information from the Servers.
It doesn't need to constantly ask for data. It can be used without an iPhone, it's just not going to take/make phone calls or maybe a couple of other features. It can do lots of functions without an iPhone.
No computer is truly standalone, your computer is connected to other computers transferring data back and forth to other computers.
Yeah, it's a smart watch, since a dumb watch will be limited to just telling time, data and maybe a stop watch and that's about it.
There, we settled it, you aren't being smart in your assessment/analogy.
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What schools did he visit to ask these questions? I'm sure the schools he visited will make a difference. If he went to the schools in cupertino where their parent(s) work at Apple, they might be more likely to own an AppleWatch whereas if he goes to a school in the Ghetto, they are more likely going to STEAL AppleWatches rather than buying them. So maybe he should ask the question on whether they are more likely going to buy vs steal an AppleWatch. /s
I have one directly from MS. From the first second you turn it on, there are problems. The startup graphic is messed up, if you have it in a dock connected to Ethernet, then pull it out of the dock, it will hard crash forcing you to reboot into a DOS shell. It's a confusing mix of desktop UI (requiring the pen tool because interface elents are too small), and the Metro interface. And it's too heavy to be a tablet, but feels like a flimsy awkward laptop. And the kickstand makes it SUPER awkward to use on your lap. Valiant effort, but a total fail in my book.
Surprised?
I don't think we should be surprised at the cool response to the Apple Watch among teens.
Let's face it, when Baby Boomers and Gen X & Y were young, they wore a watch to tell time. That's how they knew when to arrive to meet up.
Today's teens its all about text messages and apps that get them where they need to be. And the clock on their phone is likely synced with an atomic clock at some point, so is more accurate than 99% of watches on sale today, including high end Swiss timepieces.
Keep in mind that even a $20,000 COSC certified Rolex is only accurate to -6 seconds to +4 seconds a day. And only 3% of Swiss watches are COSC certified. By comparison, given the sync to an atomic clock, a typical iPhone won't lose or gain a single second during the entire time you own it.
So the average teen has grown up with a different and better method of telling the time and scheduling meetings and events in their lives.
Also when it comes to losing weight, making healthy choices, all that good stuff, they don't really pay attention to that. It's usually the 30+ age group that need to pay more attention to diet and exercise.
I think that Gen Y and older will be quite interested in an Apple Watch. But I don't think Apple should be crying themselves to sleep if a generation of teens that rarely wear watches don't suddenly jump to it just because Apple made a watch.
I don't think we should be surprised at the cool response to the Apple Watch among teens.
Let's face it, when Baby Boomers and Gen X & Y were young, they wore a watch to tell time. That's how they knew when to arrive to meet up.
Today's teens its all about text messages and apps that get them where they need to be. And the clock on their phone is likely synced with an atomic clock at some point, so is more accurate than 99% of watches on sale today, including high end Swiss timepieces.
Keep in mind that even a $20,000 COSC certified Rolex is only accurate to -6 seconds to +4 seconds a day. And only 3% of Swiss watches are COSC certified. By comparison, given the sync to an atomic clock, a typical iPhone won't lose or gain a single second during the entire time you own it.
So the average teen has grown up with a different and better method of telling the time and scheduling meetings and events in their lives.
Also when it comes to losing weight, making healthy choices, all that good stuff, they don't really pay attention to that. It's usually the 30+ age group that need to pay more attention to diet and exercise.
I think that Gen Y and older will be quite interested in an Apple Watch. But I don't think Apple should be crying themselves to sleep if a generation of teens that rarely wear watches don't suddenly jump to it just because Apple made a watch.
If the teens are in the ghetto, they aren't planning on buying them, they are more likely going to steal them or not be able to afford them in the first place. If you asked teens in wealthy areas, that's going to give you a different response. so is the sample size relevant to a certain demographic of teens?
That's why i hate surveys unless they are more specific about the people they surveyed. What age group are we talking about all teens evenly distributed or was it skewed to 13 year olds versus 18 and 19 year olds? That's going to make a difference as well. I just think the survey wasn't administered with too much thought, plus if you look at Apple iPhone customers, they are typically older, with higher levels of formal education and yearly income.
Heck, when I was a teenager, I wasn't spending my weekly money on a watch, I was given a watch by my parents as a gift and some of them were either the cheap plastic watches when I was like 8 years old, or I got a better hand me down watch from my father when I was in high school, but I certainly didn't have the money to buy a nice watch, and I worked in high school making decent money for a teenager.
What does the average teenager get in terms of weekly allowance these days? $20 to $100 a week? I used to get $20 a week back in the 70's when I was a teenager, and that paid for gas for my car, food and that didn't go that far even in the 70's. I don't know what parents give their kids these days, but I doubt most parents aren't handing out thousands of dollars to their kids. I also don't see the AppleWatch really geared to the teenager crowd. It's more of a status symbol smart watch for those that make a decent amount of income and are generally older and/or very much into their health or fitness regimen. teenagers? No, only a small percentage of them would have or get the money for one by their parents unless their parents are well off financially speaking.
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I don't know any kids that get an allowance. If you are a kid I hope you have grandparents, because in my family a lot of the kids money comes from grandparent handouts. It seems popular for grandparents to hand out money. Heck I am 32 years old and they are still handing money to me... $5 here... $20 there, my uncle is in his 50's and he still gets the handouts too, my mother as well. We have to take the money because it would hurt their feelings if we didn't take it. I have to admit the small bonuses are nice to have though. I love my grandparents!
Also the money comes from birthday and Christmas, 2 traditional sources for kids. Except the amounts are much higher these days. I know 10 year olds who get $500 plus presents every Xmas and that seems to be on the low end of things. Plenty of parents spend $1k to 3k on their kids Xmas stuff. Suddenly the latest apple gadget seems affordable to kids.
Most if not all ghetto kids have iPhones here, I live smack dab in the bad part of town and everyone from 8 years old and up and some smaller kids too have their own phones, whether it be iPhones or other models. Now I don't know if all these phones have active cell service (they could be using them as an iPod touch) but they have them and flaunt them every second they can.
Also the money comes from birthday and Christmas, 2 traditional sources for kids. Except the amounts are much higher these days. I know 10 year olds who get $500 plus presents every Xmas and that seems to be on the low end of things. Plenty of parents spend $1k to 3k on their kids Xmas stuff. Suddenly the latest apple gadget seems affordable to kids.
Most if not all ghetto kids have iPhones here, I live smack dab in the bad part of town and everyone from 8 years old and up and some smaller kids too have their own phones, whether it be iPhones or other models. Now I don't know if all these phones have active cell service (they could be using them as an iPod touch) but they have them and flaunt them every second they can.
I hear what you're saying and I agree to a point. But there are definitely two different types of people... Regardless, yes people do spend tons of cash and that's what makes it a multi billion dollar industry. I myself don't work out much but I do have a very physical job. I spend a couple hundred bucks on supplements monthly though. No gym membership, no fuelband, nothing. I just weigh myself occasionally and say "okay time to chill on the burgers" haha
It is a multi billion dollar industry, you're right, but like I said that mostly comes from "get fit quick schemes". "Here take this pill, here try this easy diet, and look GREAT in 3-4 weeks". What you just said about your supplement speaks to that. People want to look like a centerfold model with quick and easy solutions and that's where a very large part of the industry comes from when in reality you really dont have to spend much if anything to get fit. If people got fit the old fashion way that actually works then the "fitness" industry wouldn't even be half its' size in revenue.
I dont see how having a watch that takes all these statistics that will only REMIND you that you're gonna have to take old fashioned long term measures of exercise and steady diet to get fit is gonna really fit into that whole picture but we'll see.
It's all relative, most families in the ghettos don't hand out $500 in christmas presents unless the stuff is stolen or they are crack dealers. Ghettos can't afford expensive stuff unless it's stolen or it's owned by a drug dealer. What you consider bad part of town still might be considered middle class to others.
Do you have cock roaches and a vast number of other insects and rodents infesting your house? If not, then you aren't the bad part of town. If you don't hear shootings on a daily basis, then you aren't in the bad part of town.
I was born in an area where the ghetto was East Palo Alto, and then the family moved upscale to Los Altos Hills and we then considered Los Altos as lower class, but by US standards Los Altos is upper middle class, even though at one point it wasn't. Back in the early 70's, Los Altos had a bunch of cheap homes that were tiny, but things changed, people started renovating, property values increased and the home prices skyrocketed from below the $100K to now in the million+ category. Things change.
All of the people I know that come from lower income families don't get squat for Christmas or weekly allowance.