iPhone Demand Waning?

[Sun Baked]

Yeah, I got you. But at least it seems more reasonable than the 500-750 the damm analysts proposed. They really should be drug out into the streets and shot.

Usually most of the analysts are better qualified to dress up like a clown and take your burger orders.

However if you are depending only on analysts opinions and not doing any of your own research, maybe it would be better for you to hand your cash to a professional.

 

[jsnyd05]

I really cant believe how irrational people are. The true numbers are not even out yet and we will get those tomorrow after market close. I love my iPhone and couldnt be happier aside from a few flaws fixed by a software update. I'm sure the stock will be up 10 percent in the next 3 weeks.

Sent from my iPhone

 

[CHess]

Basing forecasts on 2 days of activations is silly and irresponsible

...but, what else is new? Anylists are paid to make news. The more people buy and sell stocks, regardless of price, the more money the brokers (their bosses) make. Mini-rant


But, truly, it seems ridiculous to base an analysis on AT&T's activation numbers from the first TWO days of iPhone sales. I personally know 5 people that bought iPhones. 4 of them bought them on the first or second day of availability, and none were activate in that time.

Of those 4 buyers, one waited until after the weekend to activate it. It was the weekend and he had other things to do.

Two buyers had activation problems that kept them from using the phones for 3 days after their purchase. Works great now and they love them.

The fourth buyer purchased an iPhone on Saturday (day 2) and got it home only to discover that he needed an updated version of iTunes, which required him to upgrade the old OS on his computer. So, it was at least another 2 days before he could activate his. Not strictly an "Activation" problem, but it wasn't activated none-the-less.

As an aside, the 5th buyer wasn't going to buy an iPhone at all because it wouldn't work with some new web based calling system that his son-in-law was working on. Then, after he saw an iPhone that the very same son-in-law bought, he immediately fell in love with it and went out and bought one. That was about 2 weeks after the debut.

So, how many of these were activated by AT&T in the first 30-some hours? None. Gee, iPhone must be a failure...

Obviously, this is a mini-micro sample, and statistically insignificant. But, if 0% of these first-2-day buyers didn't activate, that makes me seriously doubt these analytical projections that the iPhone isn't selling well after all.

 

[longofest]

Maybe I am an idiot, but... does AT&T use GMT or ... Alaska time or some bizzare deadline for the end of their quarter? I don't get 36 hours here. 6-12 on the 29th equals 6 and then 24 on the 30th... so that is 30 hours right? hmmmm and if they did use GMT it's actually even less...

Technically, 31 hours. Their headquarters are in San Antonio, TX. iPhone went on sale in ET, they ended in CT.

I was using the general 36 hours in place of "a day and a half" without actually doing the calculation, but you're right. It is less than 36 hours.

 

[Claypidgeon]

I wonder how much of the "waning demand" is just from a missconception on the availability. Everyone I've shown my phone to says "How on earth did you find one of those!?!" Although I got mine the first day, when I explain to them that pretty much every Apple store has them in stock at this point, they are totaly surprised.

PS: am I the only one that would kill for some "arrow" keys while entering text on this thing? Tell me I'm not missing this somewhere.

 

[spinko]

bad news is good news

for us outside the US.. maybe this will give Apple more incentive to sell the iP in Europe and elsewhere..

 

[isoS]

"Among the stores we visited, most visitors were not looking at the device, and only a very small subset bought it."

What stores were they visiting? I've been to four different Apple Stores in the L.A. area, starting with the Grove on launch day and ending with Pasadena three days ago, and every time I go in there's a crowd around the iPhone table with a wait just to touch one. Anecdotal is anecdotal, but come on: people are clearly loving playtime with the iPhone. Doesn't mean they're buying, but they're definitely drawn to it -- here in Los Angeles at least (can it be so different everywhere else?).

 

[Bookmonke]

Well like the one person said they just make statements to move stocks up or down and with Apple's numbers coming out tomorrow after market close, I see some people making money since they lost over $8 today and probably $5 or so tomorrow, then a nice jump on Thursday morning.

 

[benspratling]

PS: am I the only one that would kill for some "arrow" keys while entering text on this thing? Tell me I'm not missing this somewhere.

You can use your finger as a "mouse" when entering text. When the keyboard is visible, you can press your finger on the text, a magnifying lens pops up and shows you where the insertion cursor is being placed (under your finger). It's much easier to switch from typing with your fingers to placing the cursor on the same screen than to switch from a keyboard to a mouse.

This was one of the leaked features that appeared on June 27th by a restaurant owner who was lampooned beyond imagination for the concept, much, I believe, as anyone would have been if they said we'd be surfing the "Real" web on a 3.5" screen with no scroll bars... and yet Steve had the guts to do it and it has worked out amazing. In my humble opinion, this is better than arrow keys, and actually an ingenious idea.

 

[iHerzeleid]

Its just too expensive.

 

[shadowfax]

seems like MR needs to make a poll: If you bought your iPhone on opening weekend, when did you have it activated?

* Friday night
* Saturday
* Sunday
* Some time after this

 

[inkswamp]

Oh, gees... the Chicken Littles have turned their eyes to the iPhone.

Anyway, the first journalist to dust off the word "beleaguered" gets a nasty email.

 

[chicagdan]

Apple may try to spur sales by increasing marketing efforts.

Anyone else find that line hilarious? What are they going to do, buy up 100 percent of American TV time? How about cutting the ***** price instead?

 

[attadj]

Anyone else find that line hilarious? What are they going to do, buy up 100 percent of American TV time? How about cutting the ***** price instead?

Ain't gonna happen. Apple always wants to keep the bar high so don't expect any price drops. They will just release V2 with more features and keep the prices the same. Look at all the cheap MP3 players out there, does it bring the Ipod prices down? No.

 

[chicagdan]

Ain't gonna happen. Apple always wants to keep the bar high so don't expect any price drops. They will just release V2 with more features and keep the prices the same. Look at all the cheap MP3 players out there, does it bring the Ipod prices down? No.

I know that's the plan, but more marketing? Come on ... this product has 100 percent saturation. More commercials aren't going to get me to buy one. If sales are leveling out, they're going to have to bite the bullet and give up some of those insane margins.

 

[Claypidgeon]

You can use your finger as a "mouse" when entering text. When the keyboard is visible, you can press your finger on the text, a magnifying lens pops up and shows you where the insertion cursor is being placed (under your finger). It's much easier to switch from typing with your fingers to placing the cursor on the same screen than to switch from a keyboard to a mouse.

Yeah, I'm aware of that little trick. It works ok in vertical mode, but not so well in horizontal (my preference) where you're working with three or so lines of text. I wish it was smart enough that if you were choosing text at the top of the screen the magnifying glass would move down below your finger (like the loupe tool in Aperature) instead of displaying off the top of the screen, or smart enough to rotate the keyboard orientation dynamically. The magnifying glass is "ok", but there are many times (at least for me anyway) that arrow keys would let me do what I needed to much quicker.

 

[strangelogic]

What stores were they visiting? ...

Anecdotal is anecdotal, but come on: people are clearly loving playtime with the iPhone. Doesn't mean they're buying, but they're definitely drawn to it -- here in Los Angeles at least (can it be so different everywhere else?).

I was in an Apple store in suburban DC today, wanting to try to see/snag the BT headset... and the salesperson told me 'Apple does not make a bluetooth headset, but any third party one should work nicely' ...

So - yeah - it can be 'so different' more different than I ever expected.

 

[dr_lha]

Yes.

I believe MR represents the demographic most likely to buy an iPhone.And since there was a big outcry about failed activations it tells me there were more from other demographics.

Demographics may be OK, but how the hell do you estimate numbers? You have no idea how many of the MR readers didn't have problems activating.

As with all issues, the people with problems always shout the loudest, and it always looks like its a problem everyone is having. This effect always happens on MR when Apple release a new product with some flaw, it appears like everyone is having the problem. The reality is in fact that the people with no problems simple don't bother posting.

 

[lifeseeker]

My iPhone Experience

Traveling in Austin. Bought in Apple Store there Saturday (6/30) at noon. Activation took about 15 minutes with one call to AT & T. They were friendly, but useless. I hung up, and discovered a work-around. Activated a few minutes later to be counted in last quarter's numbers.

Everyone here (on Catalina Island) that I've shown it to wants one. Many have complained about the price, and switching off Verizon which is flat out better here.

My opinion: I love it, and am still finding ways to transition from the MacBook more and more functionality.

It's a winner.

 

[mustang_dvs]

Maybe I am an idiot, but... does AT&T use GMT or ... Alaska time or some bizzare deadline for the end of their quarter? I don't get 36 hours here. 6-12 on the 29th equals 6 and then 24 on the 30th... so that is 30 hours right? hmmmm and if they did use GMT it's actually even less...

Technically, 31 hours. Their headquarters are in San Antonio, TX. iPhone went on sale in ET, they ended in CT.

I was using the general 36 hours in place of "a day and a half" without actually doing the calculation, but you're right. It is less than 36 hours.

Actually, 36 hours works, if you figure in time zones -- 6pm-12am EDT + 9pm-12am PDT = 9 hours
12am-12am EDT + 9pm-12am PDT = 27 hours

Total = 36 hours

 

[AJsAWiz]

I was in an Apple store in suburban DC today, wanting to try to see/snag the BT headset... and the salesperson told me 'Apple does not make a bluetooth headset, but any third party one should work nicely' ...

So - yeah - it can be 'so different' more different than I ever expected.

Maybe they were new and had no idea that Apple has this in their store online. I've noticed, often, that salespeople tend to make up answers instead of just saying "I don't know"

 

[bretm]

Ain't gonna happen. Apple always wants to keep the bar high so don't expect any price drops. They will just release V2 with more features and keep the prices the same. Look at all the cheap MP3 players out there, does it bring the Ipod prices down? No.

Well, what did bring down iPod prices? A video iPod is $100+ cheaper than the original 5gig.

 

[ajhill]

Remember that analysts under perform the market averages 80% of the time. The 146,000 number is missing a few iPhones, like:

eBay speculators, of which there were 10,000 ebay listings after the first day.

Those who's activation was delayed past Saturday night due to problems switching carriers

Those who ordered from Apple website and received the iPhone 5-7 days later.

People who bought and activated on Sunday. Most estimates were for the first weekend, not the first evening and full day. That's leaving 10 hours of high demand phone sales out of the equation.

How high is the real number sold in the first weekend (not that this number means a thing) we hope to find out in Apple's conference call today...

 

[wagwag22]

New model in November ??

As a lurker - this is my first post - but about to become an iPhone buyer - I had a question re this piece in today's paper :

"" CIBC World Markets said it expected Apple & AT & T to boost their marketing push for the iPhone, and they could introduce a new model in November - that operates on a faster network ""

Anyone any thoughts on the veracity / likelihood of this November introduction. ??


Should I wait to purchase - or will any November update enable one to upgrade today's iPhone ????

 

[dernhelm]

As a lurker - this is my first post - but about to become an iPhone buyer - I had a question re this piece in today's paper :

"" CIBC World Markets said it expected Apple & AT & T to boost their marketing push for the iPhone, and they could introduce a new model in November - that operates on a faster network ""

Anyone any thoughts on the veracity / likelihood of this November introduction. ??


Should I wait to purchase - or will any November update enable one to upgrade today's iPhone ????

Not going to happen in the US anyway. SJ seemed almost proud of his decision to limit the iPhone to G2 (2.5, whatever) data networks - mainly because the hardware to provide G3 access drained battery too much, and was too bulky/expensive. Apple does not see EDGE speeds as a limitation that will hit real users all that hard. Their target audience for the device has a lot of access to WiFi. There is no hardware to access a G3 network on the iPhone currently, so it isn't like it can be "turned on" by Apple via some update. It would be a whole new rev of the iPhone. And that simply isn't going to happen until next year sometime (at the earliest).

That said, there will likely be updates to the device from time to time. If you just want an iPhone, and don't need to make a decision quickly - I'd wait. Let the early adopters beat out the bugs, and let Apple respond with updates. If by some miracle, they produce a killer iPhone Nano for a whole lot less money, and that's all you need, then you'll look like a genius!