It's not going to happen since 54% of web video is now HTML5 compatible http://www.loopinsight.com/2010/10/27/54-of-web-video-is-now-html5/ Apple just going to wait it out.
I am sad everyone is hating on Flash. Flash isn't just for video, but it also happens to be one of if not the most common video platform. We have to take a step back to understand why it's popular. For video, it's because it allows interactivity. One "interactive" element is ads. Yeah, they suck. But guess what? They are what fund the internet. Flash is easy to develop for. It's only going to get more popular. Online mapping will continue to grow and it uses Flash. And SilverLight. Both should be allowed on iPhone at least iPhone 5. Sure Adobe should polish up the code. But I think they've probably learned a lot by deploying it on Android for a year. I'm sure if they worked together with Apple (If Apple played nice) they could figure it out for iPhone 5. Which would be a great selling point for iPhone 5...Apple are you listening...
Flash is big for business. It's not going anywhere. HTML 5 is not a replacement. Flash is good. It's implementation on the Mac is..sub-optimal. But instead Apple is creating a holy war with a former friend and business partner, Adobe, and stabbing them in the back. Not a good long-term business plan.