There was a time when blackberry was making superior products as well. Then they got complacent.
Can I "Reply to All" and attach a document to an email on ios yet, without a workaround? Nope. Couldn't it 2008 and can't in 2013.
Got a tip for us?
Let us know
Become a MacRumors Supporter for $50/year with no ads, ability to filter front page stories, and private forums.
iPhone Market Share Expected to Hit 68% in the United States by 2017
- Thread starter MacRumors
- Start date
- Sort by reaction score
There was a time when blackberry was making superior products as well. Then they got complacent.
Can I "Reply to All" and attach a document to an email on ios yet, without a workaround? Nope. Couldn't it 2008 and can't in 2013.
Why would it be awesome for a single company to have near total control over a market?
Is it "awesome" that Microsoft basically owns the desktop OS market? Is it "awesome" that most people in the US only have one real choice when it comes to ISP?
The author is already backing down from the claim that it was "the first real smartphone", as he should. Especially since in its first year, the iPhone was more of a dedicated feature phone, since it lacked native third party apps.
Yes, Apple helped grow public consciousness about smartphones, but long before the iPhone, most everyone had already heard of Palm Pilots and Blackberrys, even if they didn't own one themselves. The knowledge was common enough that a big star movie was made in 2004 whose plot revolved around a girl finding past girlfriends on her boyfriend's Palm Pilot. It even had two girls "beaming" apps to each other. Again, three years before Apple jumped in.
Smartphone sales had been steadily increasing every year since the turn of the century, and tended to be more popular where there was more 3G.
By 2006, many of us in the US were rocking touchscreen smartphones with 3G, Google Maps, Slingplayer TV casting, the precursor to Google Search, games, apps, and custom homescreens with live data and notifications. Europeans had video calling, even.
People also forget that the iPhone was not an instant mass success in its first year, partly because it was only on AT&T, and partly because it was not subsidized yet.
Could be good, if they keep it down to Moto X size i.e. 4.5-4.7 inch screen and very thin borders. 5 and up, like the Nexus 5 and Galaxy S4, is too large in my opinion.
I think Apple may need to lower prices as well, perhaps by $150. A $500 iPhone competes well with a $350 Moto X or Google Nexus. I dont think its too difficult to rationalize buying a $150 price premium. A $300 premium is much more difficult to rationalize, especially if the major postpaid carriers drop subsidies/financing as AT&T is hinting at. You will note that Apple offers financing outside the US. In India, for example. They may have to do so in the US as well if the carriers wont finance.
Here's the thing: There isn't only "one real choice" when it comes to cellphones. There's a lot of good competition going on, and if most people choose to go with iPhone, good for Apple! This is kind of a different situation than the examples you gave.
Why would Apple consider lowering their price when they're still selling more and more iPhones YoY? That makes zero sense. They don't need to consider such a price decrease until they see market erosion (and not as a % of market but erosion in actual numbers).
Dediu is just playing with the numbers, nothing more. Like the people that did the pirates graph
The author is extrapolating a line. This works if you want to see a tiny bit into the future but he as about 1/3 of the graph filled in and reattempts to predict how the remaining 3/2 of the white space will be filled in. His prediction could be off by a LOT and there is still time for disruptive changes.
In other words he is guessing but he uses some math-like reasoning so he figure 99% of people will not understand and just take his word for it. Don't because the math assumes "if it keeps on going like it is....." which is a big "if", it's really a guess.
In other words he is guessing but he uses some math-like reasoning so he figure 99% of people will not understand and just take his word for it. Don't because the math assumes "if it keeps on going like it is....." which is a big "if", it's really a guess.
Please expound because what you said here makes no sense:
But then again, you're biased yourself, aren't you? I have yet to see one thing posted by you that is not critical of Apple or critical of anything positive about Apple.
Although this may happen, I'm more curious about foreign market share as an investor. Apple is saturated in North America, but is being killed by BlackBerry and Samsung abroad. We need to catch up! I really hope they can price the 5C to compete with Android in the foreign markets.
So you're saying that he can't predict the future? Thanks. There are some merits to his data but I think he would agree that it does not take into consideration "disruptive changes" since those are, well, unpredictable. Statistics and analysis can be very valuable in predicting market trends, stock prices, etc. They aren't infallible but to dismiss them wholesale is foolish.
Proper industry and business analysis is incredibly hard. From what I have seen in analyst reports they often barely understand what is going on and are basing much of their conclusions on statements of companies that they are in contact with. Although in essence this is not a bad thing, many analysts forget to also look at the industry from a more fundamental perspective.
Can't see this coming to fruition. Late adopters of smartphones will likely tilt heavily towards the cheaper models (not iphones) since they are more likely to be less affluent than current smartphone owners. Furthermore, competition is stiff, I'd say the iPhone has already reached peak market share (or just about). Last, extrapolating market shares a few years into the future is tech markets is dicey to begin with. I bet 5 year Motorola market share forecasts looked pretty good in 2005.
Last edited:
No, I'm not.
Then the one being biased is you because here I'm not critical about anything positive to Apple, I'm being critical to a nonsensical analysis, if they had said the same About Android I would say the same. And trying to guess market share FOUR full years from here is nonsensical. It doesn't mind who does this and what predicts, being Dediu, IDC or Pipper Jafray.
My God, people here laughs about what IDC said in 2007.
Last year or the year before, some random analyst predicted Windows Mobile to be higher market share than the iPhone by 2015.
Worstall is the the author of the Forbes article and it's his comment that was slightly retracted, but Worstall's post is WRT Horace Dediu's post linked below;
http://www.asymco.com/2013/12/13/how-many-americans-will-be-using-an-iphone/
Being a Math Minor I actually found this article interested. Maybe because it had a BIT of math in it. haha. Nevermind if it is actually correct or not.
I very much have a ton of respect for the people who basically do this sort of math for a living. I've only had a basic class on it and found the topic fascinating, and very confusing if not paying attention. lol.
I very much have a ton of respect for the people who basically do this sort of math for a living. I've only had a basic class on it and found the topic fascinating, and very confusing if not paying attention. lol.