iPhone Market Share Expected to Hit 68% in the United States by 2017

[giantfan1224]

Then the one being biased is you because here I'm not critical about anything positive to Apple, I'm being critical to a nonsensical analysis, if they had said the same About Android I would say the same. And trying to guess market share FOUR full years from here is nonsensical. It doesn't mind who does this and what predicts, being Dediu, IDC or Pipper Jafray.

My God, people here laughs about what IDC said in 2007.

Then please grace us with your boundless knowledge and explain why it's nonsensical. Just saying, "trying to guess the market share FOUR full years from here is nonsensical" is nothing earth-shattering. I'm sure he'd admit that there's no way to predict this with any degree of certainty.

 

[JAT]

Unfortunately for mathematicians, reality doesn't always fit neatly into their models.

Uh, zero mathematicians helped in creating the numbers in this story.

 

[Oletros]

Then please grace us with your boundless knowledge and explain why it's nonsensical? And just the facts please.

Really, if you don't want to understand that it is nonsensical predicting market share for full four years in the future and, at the same time, don't give a ****ing explanation of why some company will loose more than 50% of its market share then I can't say more.

Call me in 2017 and we will see the data. Or call me next December.

 

[cppguy]

Is it just me or does that yellow line look like the path of a ball when you throw it into the air—moments before it peaks and then comes plummeting back down to earth?

This is a log chart. Straight lines are exponential. Exponential growth cannot go on forever. At some point everyone will have a smart phone or two already.

 

[giantfan1224]

Really, if you don't want to understand that it is nonsensical predicting market share for full four years in the future and, at the same time, don't give a ****ing explanation of why some company will loose more than 50% of its market share then I can't say more.

Call me in 2017 and we will see the data. Or call me next December.

Just saying, "trying to guess the market share FOUR full years from here is nonsensical" is nothing earth-shattering. I'm sure he'd admit that there's no way to predict this with any degree of certainty.

 

[Konrad9]

Here's the thing: There isn't only "one real choice" when it comes to cellphones. There's a lot of good competition going on, and if most people choose to go with iPhone, good for Apple! This is kind of a different situation than the examples you gave.

No, it isn't, not even close. If you had a better memory, you would know that there used to be many, many more choices in those markets.

 

[TMay]

No, I'm not.




Then the one being biased is you because here I'm not critical about anything positive to Apple, I'm being critical to a nonsensical analysis, if they had said the same About Android I would say the same. And trying to guess market share FOUR full years from here is nonsensical. It doesn't mind who does this and what predicts, being Dediu, IDC or Pipper Jafray.

My God, people here laughs about what IDC said in 2007.

You are most certainly biased.

Unless you actually go to asymco, you wouldn't know that Horace has been posting a series using available smartphone data.

Here's a link to a previous post showing saturation;

http://www.asymco.com/2013/12/10/updated-us-smartphone-saturation-forecast/

 

[Wiesenlooser]

This is stupid . First of all you can't predict success like this. Every iPhone generations demands a big amount of hard work from
Engineers designers, etc.
maybe in 2 years sony comes out with an android phone that blows the iPhone away I'm every aspect. Who knows?
And who knows if there even will be an iPhone in 3-4 years?
What if the iWatch totally disrupts this market or something else does. ?

 

[numlock]

looks like someone knows how to press shift while making a line

but will be interesting see how that one progresses. wonder if it will be listed as a claim chowder by a famous blogger if dosent come true

im sure you can find analysts with very lofty projections for nokia in 2005-2007

 

[tbrinkma]

People also forget that the iPhone was not an instant mass success in its first year,...

Really? Apple sold 6,000,000 iPhones in its first year.
In the same year, smartphone sales *world wide* were only 64,000,000 units.

You're actually claiming that nearly 10% of total world wide smartphone sales by one company, in the first year they even offered a product in that category, doesn't qualify as an instant, mass success?

 

[TMay]

Being a Math Minor I actually found this article interested. Maybe because it had a BIT of math in it. haha. Nevermind if it is actually correct or not.

I very much have a ton of respect for the people who basically do this sort of math for a living. I've only had a basic class on it and found the topic fascinating, and very confusing if not paying attention. lol.

Horace has a series of posts, going back quite some time on the smartphone market.

http://www.asymco.com

 

[giantfan1224]

This is stupid . First of all you can't predict success like this. Every iPhone generations demands a big amount of hard work from
Engineers designers, etc.
maybe in 2 years sony comes out with an android phone that blows the iPhone away I'm every aspect. Who knows?
And who knows if there even will be an iPhone in 3-4 years?
What if the iWatch totally disrupts this market or something else does. ?

Let me repeat myself: he doesn't take into consideration major disruptions because those are infinitesimally difficult to predict.

Of course there could be other game changers before 2017 but that's not the point of this sort of prediction.

 

[SgtPepper12]

Wow, the description of the mathematics used makes me so angry. It's just plain wrong and absolutely unscientific. This is precisely the reason why no one takes analysts seriously.

 

[paige.findley]

nice...

And in the Christmas spirit too!

 

[Tiger8]

Very true, but for now Apple is making enough incremental changes to remain relevant. BB & Palms downfall was that they didn't freshen up the interface or update feature set until they already bled too much market share.

BB should be studied. I remeber reading a great book called 'The Innovator Delimma', it talks about disruptive technology, how IBM - who once owned the 8 inch hard drive market back in the mainframe days- pretty much was hit with a disruptive in-every-way-better 5.25 inch hard drive solution, that made them exit the market. Apple vs Blackberry in smartphones seems to mirror that.

 

[paul4339]

You have to look at the graph to know how it is flawed.

A hint, there is more than just an operating system, thing that he has missed because if he does the numbers for the others he will have a market share way greater than 100%. He has not analysed anything, he has just played with numbers and has make a guesswork with the numbers that he has liked more.

can you clarify?
His model is just mapping adoption actuals to a standard adoption curve.

Sure it can be more complex and include more and more variables, but is there anything fundamentally wrong that's significant enough to alter the general model?

.

 

[Oletros]

You are most certainly biased.

Pot? kettle?

Unless you actually go to asymco, you wouldn't know that Horace has been posting a series using available smartphone data.

Here's a link to a previous post showing saturation;

http://www.asymco.com/2013/12/10/updated-us-smartphone-saturation-forecast/

I have read all the ****ing reports and all the data is the same, he is extrapolating 4 years in the future.

Really, any analyst predicting such a long timeframe is just doing that, guessing.

Do you want to bet what the numbers will be? Let's bet

 

[69650]

The iPhone is a luxury product. It might well capture 68% of the available market for smartphones if that's what they mean but certainly not 68% of the whole US population. That's just ridiculous.

I guess it must be the pump and dump season for the analysts and their mates on the trading floor.

 

[blackhand1001]

google nexus is not a premium product, it's nice but not premium!

The nexus 7 is definitely a premium product. It may not have a premium price but everything else on it is absolutely premium. The screen is top notch (better quality than the rMini), the materials feel excellent, and the battery is top notch. I can't comment on the nexus 5 as I don't own one but the nexus 7 is definitely a premium product.

 

[Winni]

Nope, I just like seeing Apple succeed

Apple is a company, not a football team. For you, a customer, a dominating market share of their products will only mean that things will get more expensive while the product quality will shrink at the same time. Competition is what forces a company to innovate and put a reasonable price tag on their products. When a company holds a monopoly, it won't do either.

That being said, the US are Apple's home market and that's where the company enjoys the greatest success. But I doubt that this will last much longer, because in all other regions of this planet, Apple is very unsurprisingly losing ground to the huge mass of competing products.

 

[giantfan1224]

Pot? kettle?



I have read all the ****ing reports and all the data is the same, he is extrapolating 4 years in the future.

Really, any analyst predicting such a long timeframe is just doing that, guessing.

Do you want to bet what the numbers will be? Let's bet

Who is saying that this is an absolute prediction? It's an estimation based on past and present data. Do you have a method to predict it more accurately than he is attempting?

 

[Oletros]

can you clarify?
His model is just mapping adoption actuals to a standard adoption curve.

Sure it can be more complex and include more and more variables, but is there anything fundamentally wrong that's significant enough to alter the general model?

.

It calculates that regression as if there was just one company. Looking at that graph there are two more OS'es that have a grow tendency, how they will lose market share?

Why he starts the graph on January 2010 when the iPhone was released on June 2007 or the first Android device on October 2008? How the data would look if we extend the points to that dates?

Playing with numbers is funny, but it is just that, playing with numbers.

 

[giantfan1224]

Apple is a company, not a football team. For you, a customer, a dominating market share of their products will only mean that things will get more expensive while the product quality will shrink at the same time. Competition is what forces a company to innovate and put a reasonable price tag on their products. When a company holds a monopoly, it won't do either

There is plenty of competition in the smartphone market. Apple having and holding 68% market share will not mean more expensive and poorer quality products. If this prediction holds true in 2017 then it will be a real testament to Apple because it's going to be extremely difficult to do considering the competition.

 

[Oletros]

Do you have a method to predict it more accurately than he is attempting?

Yes, I have made a program that uses a random function

 

[MrX8503]

I'm sure Blackberry thought so one day... but look at them now.

No one is safe

That is true. However, the difference between Apple and other smartphone competitors is that Apple has already went through a near death experience. I don't think Apple feels like they're invincible. Their $100B+ in the bank further illustrates this.