Alex, since the 35% is a throwaway figure as well the same logic applies - Steve Jobs said 'has', not 'are currently'. Furthermore the Fortune 500 comprises global companies - only about 180 of them have their HQ in the US.
I take your point about the survey being conducted in May, however, the CIO's would already have been aware of the Exchange support feature at that point and the potential of the SDK. Given that 3G and GPS would be of limited interest to them - their concerns stem around remote management and security, sharepoint access, durability of product, cost (somewhat addressed), carrier lock in, loading mechanism and maintenance (having to send the unit away to have the battery replaced isn't clever) - it's not that relevant.
As for the BB forum, I'm not a member.
My point is that you've made a series of incorrect assumptions, padded out spurious statements and drawn erroneous conclusions from them. The fact remains that IT departments will test and trial new products, however most of them never get past the first tollgate. This has certainly been my experience when managing projects - you look at all the candidates, you trial a selection to ensure corporate governance is met and then you select your preferred choice or maintain your current solution. The iPhone has been tested, found to bring nothing new to the table that BB doesn't already and, as such, has been largely rejected as a solution. This is a normal business process. I'm sorry if you don't understand that.
If you look at the financial press you'll see that's the prevailing opinion because they know that's how it works - 35% of companies testing does not equate to 35% of companies buying. Now, again, please can advise how many of the Fortune 500 use Blackberries?
The trouble with your arguments is that they have a veneer of credibility because you understand networks. Unfortunately, when you dig down into them they're shown to be weak. For example, you have failed to address why iTunes only loading is a weakness, the positives of using BES and the iPhone's lack of proven security.
So, it's not a case of you refuting our arguments because you don't actually have a valid argument of your own in the first place which I guess is why you automatically assume people have come over from other forums when, in reality, they're just pointing out how poor your arguments actually are.
I'm sorry if that sounds harsh but that's they way it appears. You're arguing the case for the iPhone from a - somewhat misguided - technical point of view, not a business point of view.
First of all, my saying the 35% are in trials are a response to the notion that the iPhone hasn't got a chance in the Enterprise. The fact that it is in trials at all means it does have a chance in the enterprise. I never said 35% means 35% will adopt. I did state that my opinion is that it will take marketshare away from BlackBerry. I stand by that opinion. And so far, you have not shown me one credible reason why this won't happen. All you have done is show me flawed logic in your assessment of what a P/E means, and what the CIO report means. In reality, you seem to be defensive and not in full control of your argument, likely because your arguments don't have legs to stand on.
You state that most IT departments will test but most will not adopt. This has absolutely nothing to do with what I said, whether it is a true statement or a false statement, it's simply a statement which is not even on the same path as what I am saying, which again shows you seem to enjoy making up an argument in your own mind and then arguing with seemingly no one.
Again, my statement is "IT basically takes the device seriously" and "It is being considered, so adoptions is not out of the realm of possibility" and lastly "just because the BB is already entrenched doesn't mean it can't lose marketshare to Apple". All of these statements are supported by the trials. All of these statements only state that the iPhone has the opportunity to affectively grab marketshare from RIM. You seem to be arguing that "MOST" will or wont adopt. Where in my stated opinion do I say "MOST" will do anything? I don't. I say RM is ripe to lose marketshare. I say RIM is DEAD. And I state an opinion that it will come from 3 sources, Microsoft, Google, and Apple. I state an opinion that RIMs interface is very dated. Where is your response to this. Instead, you are focusing on a CIO MAy report as evidence I am wrong. The problem is, it doesn't target any of my opinions.
So next you say I don't have a valid argument. This coming from you. They guy who claims a P/E of 37 is just like a P/E of 67. LOL. The same guy who says iPhone has not got a chance in the enterprise, in the face of evidence to the contrary.
Who is it that will be using the Salesforce.com applications by your estimation if not the enterprise? I guess you think no one will.
You seem to think that the iPhone is doomed before it gets started. Your support in this feeling is the CIO doc you found. A simple MAY report is taken as fact as to the fate of the iPhone. Why, I should read those reports more often. Apparently they have the ability to foresee the future! Let me call the analyst right now, and tell them not to bother factoring unit sales because Bongo has a opinion article in his possession which proves the iPhone will go no where. Didn't you guys see this opinion report? Save your time worrying about the trials, adoption, unit sales, developer interest, etc. The report here says what's going to happen guys.
My argument doesn't hold water huh? Listen Bongo, you need to "have" an argument in the first place. What you have here amounts to "not uh". It's not an argument. My opinions are well backed up and on point. You can say they are not all you like, but so far you have not been able to backup or refute a single opinion of mine. Not once. You have instead shown me how misguided you are.
Fact... The iPhone is in trials, which means it is taken seriously and does have a chance to make headway in the enterprise. It's that simple. It has a chance. How much it will take if any at all does nothing to take away from the fact that it does indeed have a chance.
Opinion... It is my opinion that it will take away from RIM. Why? See the fact below...
Fact... RIM is dated. Their phone is dated, their software is shallow compared to what the iPhone is offering. That is a fact. You can say it isn't all you want and nothing will change. You can say the BB is tried and true, which would be a true statement, but it doesn't change the fact that the BB is dated. Nothing you can say can change the fact that the BB is dated. End of story, it's old technology against superior newer technology.
Opinion....
It is my opinion that because the iPhone is taken seriously, a fact backed up by the trials, that it will gain marketshare. It has the software, it has the technology. It has the interest. All you can honestly say is that you believe it won't take marketshare away. But you can't say for a fact what CIOs will do. You can't say for a fact what the adoption, if any, will become. No one can.
Fact...
RIM is trading at a far worse P/E than Apple. And this is cause for a sharp market correction.
Fact...
RIM is a one trick pony. All they do are handsets.
Fact... Apple has nearly 6 times the liquid assets.
Fact.... Microsoft has close to 14 times the liquid assets
Fact... Google has 8 times the liquid assets.
Fact, Apple, Google, and Microsoft have better brand awareness than RIM.
Opinion, all three of these companies are about to drop the BB like a bad habit. That is indeed my opinion. and you can say that up till now BB is the front runner all you like. That doesn't mean they will continue to be the front runner. The sleeping giants want the smart phone market now. And I submit to you that RIM has a company is in no way prepared to combat them. I submit my opinion to you that they don't have the engineering talent, resources, or good will to fend of these giants.
Alex