One thing that should be pointed out is that, if someone drops $300 on applecare, and ends up using it for even a single repair with apple, that person likely breaks even given that most repairs I've seen from Apple cost at least that much to pay for out of pocket. To that person, applecare has paid for itself, and anything that goes wrong that it pays for in the future is gravy.
From Apple's perspective, though, the repair really only cost a fraction of that $300, so they still managed to make, say, $150 off of the sale of applecare. In the likely case of a single repair, everyone feels like they at least broke even off of the applecare purchase. If the consumer doesn't buy applecare, maybe they get their stuff fixed through someone else, and Apple doesn't see a dime of that repair cost. The sheer fact that apple's repair costs are so marked up is what allows this 'everyone feels like they win' mentality to exist. It's also what allows third-party repair places to keep their prices for repairs so high. Regardless, it is what it is that repairing macs is expensive.
This is why both sides of this argument can persist, and both be right. Apple sells applecare to you because they make money off of it, sure. But the key here is that they likely make money off of it EVEN IF YOU USE IT, whereas the consumer will definitely lose money if they have to get more than one repair and didn't buy it. Sure, it's an odds game, but it's a stranger odds game than most odds games, given the high price of even modest repairs, and the fact that apple controls the whole ecosystem.
I've had applecare on both of the laptops I've had (a powerbook and now a mbp), and have used it extensively on both, to the point that the mbp was a free replacement for the powerbook from apple. I've switched 5 of my friends to macbook pros, and all of them have also at some point used applecare outside of the first year to get repairs that would have cost more than the applecare purchase. That's stunning to me, and would be indicative of a real problem with the mbp line, except that I also see what these things go through on a daily basis. Portables go through hell, and applecare has fixed them up and paid for itself in every case.
I didn't buy it, and didn't need it, for either of my mac mini's, and I wouldn't for any kind of desktop, as it seems that they take an order of magnitude less abuse than any kind of well-used portable. Add in that it's been easier to sell their MBP's and the resale value has been higher as they've upgraded, and it's a no-brainer to pick it up when you're talking about portables, especially if you're getting an educational discount.
I can't believe this thread is still going on, and that I am now party to it's continuation. Sheesh.
