iSuppli Revises Entry-Level iPad Component Cost Estimate Up to $260

[ipadcovers]

Overly Optimistic iPad Estimates?

7 million iPads for this year? That estimate (like the iPad) is on steroids. With 300K sales for 3 weeks, that's about 14,285 unit/day and assuming that rate is sustainable till the end of the year, that's only another 3.9M devices for the rest of 2010. Whatever they are smoking, I like some too!

 

[RalfTheDog]

7 million iPads for this year? That estimate (like the iPad) is on steroids. With 300K sales for 3 weeks, that's about 14,285 unit/day and assuming that rate is sustainable till the end of the year, that's only another 3.9M devices for the rest of 2010. Whatever they are smoking, I like some too!

Many people think iPad sales will pick up as more people see them in the real world. When you get one, you find they are far more useful than expected. I expect businesses to start buying them for everyone on salary. I find my device far more useful than a cell phone.

 

[cinwick]

Seems about right Apple of course needs to make their 300$ profit

 

[wizard]

Beyound the expectation of more RAM than a Phone would have, consider:

1. The actual RAM free for app use is less than what yo have in a 3GS.
2. The 3GS has less free RAM than an iPod Touch.
3. The screen on the iPad has far more pixels to manage or light up, this means grapical items take up far more RAM. So each png jpg or whatever has to be much larger.
4. There are numerous reports already on performance regressions with Safari where it constantly reloads tabs when switched to.
5. A new iPhone OS upgrade is not far off and it will very likely use more resources on the machine. So you are starting out memory constrained and will have to upgrade to a new OS soon that uses more RAM.
6. The larger screen implies apps with more controls and other widgets, these all require RAM to implement. So what you have is programs using more memory than they would if designed for a smaller screen.
7. The lack of RAM makes it difficult to implement programs that depend upon lots of RAM. Image editors, HDR tools and other things related to photographic image manipulation come to mind. The lack of RAM however limits many other potential apps on the device.
8. People gave already reported out of memory issues.
9. Applications only have a little over 110MB of RAM available to them. While many apps can be easily fit into that RAM it isn't much at all for a modern computer. As already mentioned many programs will have a hardtime with the memory limitations.

I'm curious.Lots of people are calling the amount of ram anything from disappointing to criminal.

It is very disappointing because of the sleazy way Apple handled this issue. They left out this critical aspect of the iPads spec in the public information available before sale. This may not be criminal but it certainly isn't ethical.

Has there been any evidence in testing or use so far that it is causing actual real world problems in everyday use?

Actually who cares? It is a bigger problem that Apple seems to be getting away with what seems to be very un ethical behaviour even if it isn't technically illegal.

In any event yes it causes real world problems for users. It effectively lowers performance and drives up bandwidth usage.

Or is this just spec-obsessed geeks complaining about something normal users will never have a problem with?

That is a gross insult to normal users. Basically you are saying normal users should take whatever Apple shoves down their collective throats and keep quite. Sad, very sad. Using your logic 128MB of RAM should be good enough for everybody.

Dave

 

[MacPhilosopher]

Nice...

So that's a rough $2.5 Billion profit in 2010 for the hardware, and untold dollars in media and apps for the device. Apple has taken this business model to the next level. Vision.

 

[MacPhilosopher]

Wow!!

1. The actual RAM free for app use is less than what yo have in a 3GS.
2. The 3GS has less free RAM than an iPod Touch.
3. The screen on the iPad has far more pixels to manage or light up, this means grapical items take up far more RAM. So each png jpg or whatever has to be much larger.
4. There are numerous reports already on performance regressions with Safari where it constantly reloads tabs when switched to.
5. A new iPhone OS upgrade is not far off and it will very likely use more resources on the machine. So you are starting out memory constrained and will have to upgrade to a new OS soon that uses more RAM.
6. The larger screen implies apps with more controls and other widgets, these all require RAM to implement. So what you have is programs using more memory than they would if designed for a smaller screen.
7. The lack of RAM makes it difficult to implement programs that depend upon lots of RAM. Image editors, HDR tools and other things related to photographic image manipulation come to mind. The lack of RAM however limits many other potential apps on the device.
8. People gave already reported out of memory issues.
9. Applications only have a little over 110MB of RAM available to them. While many apps can be easily fit into that RAM it isn't much at all for a modern computer. As already mentioned many programs will have a hardtime with the memory limitations.

It is very disappointing because of the sleazy way Apple handled this issue. They left out this critical aspect of the iPads spec in the public information available before sale. This may not be criminal but it certainly isn't ethical.

Actually who cares? It is a bigger problem that Apple seems to be getting away with what seems to be very un ethical behaviour even if it isn't technically illegal.

In any event yes it causes real world problems for users. It effectively lowers performance and drives up bandwidth usage.


That is a gross insult to normal users. Basically you are saying normal users should take whatever Apple shoves down their collective throats and keep quite. Sad, very sad. Using your logic 128MB of RAM should be good enough for everybody.

Dave

Have you used one? RAM presented no problems for me using all of the included apps and several downloaded apps. Photographic image editing? What about CAD? Apple obviously has no respect for engineers and architects. How dare they release an internet device and media player that doesn't do CAD. I am so tired of comments that are so out of left field. Keep your expectations within the parameters of what the device was designed to do. These limitations, if they are limitations, will impact gaming apps. This is not an image or video editing device. Apple shoved this down your throat? Did they Fed Ex you one and take the money out of your account without asking?

 

[matticus008]

1. The actual RAM free for app use is less than what yo have in a 3GS.
2. The 3GS has less free RAM than an iPod Touch.

1. 
   I'm curious as to your source on this.
   

   The screen on the iPad has far more pixels to manage or light up, this means grapical items take up far more RAM. So each png jpg or whatever has to be much larger.

   Technically true, but less than a 1MB difference.
   

   There are numerous reports already on performance regressions with Safari where it constantly reloads tabs when switched to.

   This is similar to iPhone handling and may well be a consequence of dealing with a first release browser adapted to the new platform. There's no indication that tab loading has anything to do with memory shortages.
   

   So you are starting out memory constrained and will have to upgrade to a new OS soon that uses more RAM.

   This is a circular argument. You're assuming as given that performance of the iPad is constrained by RAM, and since you're so offended by the installed amount, it seems you haven't really used one (and obviously refuse to purchase one). As all the reviews have indicated, it's quite fast.
   

   The larger screen implies apps with more controls and other widgets, these all require RAM to implement.

   Only if they're used at the same time. An inactive control is just a bunch of pixels sitting on the screen--making no difference whatsoever. Since the iPad works quite well with fairly intensive 3D games, handling applications dealing with static images and text is not that big a deal. Obviously you wouldn't want to do any rendering or video production.
   

   The lack of RAM makes it difficult to implement programs that depend upon lots of RAM. Image editors, HDR tools and other things related to photographic image manipulation come to mind.

   I would be surprised if the iPad could effectively achieve feature parity with Photoshop 6, which ran acceptably on MUCH more constrained hardware. Modern desktop software would not run well on such a low-power device, which is kind of exactly why the iPad doesn't run it at all. But leaner code could easily allow modern implementations of functions performed by P3-class desktops, which would continue to be perfectly adequate if desktop programmers actually cared about resource management anymore. The limitation is not a functional one, but instead one requiring efficient programming of a type not ordinarily done on desktop platforms anymore. 256MB was standard issue less than a decade ago on full-blown computers. Pretending that it's some woefully inadequate amount for a device running efficient applications on a highly optimized OS is silly.
   

   People gave already reported out of memory issues.

   "People" meaning users of one game that the developers have admitted is a bug they're looking into.
   

   In any event yes it causes real world problems for users.

   Where? If you're trying to run CS4, sure. But you couldn't do that, anyway.

 

[DraziGuy]

BTW, I love how "shoved down your throat" seems to be a catch phrase in America these days...

 

[E.Lizardo]

1. The actual RAM free for app use is less than what yo have in a 3GS.
2. The 3GS has less free RAM than an iPod Touch.
3. The screen on the iPad has far more pixels to manage or light up, this means grapical items take up far more RAM. So each png jpg or whatever has to be much larger.
4. There are numerous reports already on performance regressions with Safari where it constantly reloads tabs when switched to.
5. A new iPhone OS upgrade is not far off and it will very likely use more resources on the machine. So you are starting out memory constrained and will have to upgrade to a new OS soon that uses more RAM.
6. The larger screen implies apps with more controls and other widgets, these all require RAM to implement. So what you have is programs using more memory than they would if designed for a smaller screen.
7. The lack of RAM makes it difficult to implement programs that depend upon lots of RAM. Image editors, HDR tools and other things related to photographic image manipulation come to mind. The lack of RAM however limits many other potential apps on the device.
8. People gave already reported out of memory issues.
9. Applications only have a little over 110MB of RAM available to them. While many apps can be easily fit into that RAM it isn't much at all for a modern computer. As already mentioned many programs will have a hardtime with the memory limitations.

It is very disappointing because of the sleazy way Apple handled this issue. They left out this critical aspect of the iPads spec in the public information available before sale. This may not be criminal but it certainly isn't ethical.

Actually who cares? It is a bigger problem that Apple seems to be getting away with what seems to be very un ethical behaviour even if it isn't technically illegal.

In any event yes it causes real world problems for users. It effectively lowers performance and drives up bandwidth usage.


That is a gross insult to normal users. Basically you are saying normal users should take whatever Apple shoves down their collective throats and keep quite. Sad, very sad. Using your logic 128MB of RAM should be good enough for everybody.

Dave

Not at all.I'm a normal user,for one thing.And I'm not saying anything of the kind.I don't know what "logic"you are referring to,but I just asked a simple question,which you answered.Geez!Indignant much?

 

[deconstruct60]

7 million iPads for this year? That estimate (like the iPad) is on steroids. With 300K sales for 3 weeks, that's about 14,285 unit/day and assuming that rate is sustainable till the end of the year, that's only another 3.9M devices for the rest of 2010.

That would be 3.9M devices sold just in the US. Then if the rest of the world bought another 3M devices that would be approximately 7M for the year. But yeah you are right it would be hard to sustain those rates.... but have only released half of the product line up. There are probably a few folks that are holding out for 3G. ( not too many around here. Seems as though many of those around here just go deeper into spending spree if were going to wait but touch a WiFi model. LOL. )


You are forgetting that the initial set of number is just for WiFi and just for the US. That latter probably being more important in how they sustain the high unit/day rate. Much easier if incrementally roll out the iPad to different countries throughout the Summer and early Fall until can get to Christmas buying season when might get second substantive wave of buyers.

The wave will die off in the US and then pick up in Canada, UK , etc. and then pick up in the next global roll out countries and then the next group.....

There are 8 months to sell around 875,000 units a month. It is less than a million a month. It is high, but not quite at the level of heavy doses of drugs to justify the number.


The real open question is whether any competition is going to show up in the next couple of months or not. If it does that might be more challenging. If nothing substantive comes (with different trade offs and gathers a bit of a buzz) then not so challenging.

Don't think any likely contenders will beat the iPad on weight and battery life. May beat it though on being closer to a general computer than document connectivity life funneled through iTunes.

 

[E.Lizardo]

I'm curious as to your source on this.

Technically true, but less than a 1MB difference.

This is similar to iPhone handling and may well be a consequence of dealing with a first release browser adapted to the new platform. There's no indication that tab loading has anything to do with memory shortages.

This is a circular argument. You're assuming as given that performance of the iPad is constrained by RAM, and since you're so offended by the installed amount, it seems you haven't really used one (and obviously refuse to purchase one). As all the reviews have indicated, it's quite fast.

Only if they're used at the same time. An inactive control is just a bunch of pixels sitting on the screen--making no difference whatsoever. Since the iPad works quite well with fairly intensive 3D games, handling applications dealing with static images and text is not that big a deal. Obviously you wouldn't want to do any rendering or video production.

I would be surprised if the iPad could effectively achieve feature parity with Photoshop 6, which ran acceptably on MUCH more constrained hardware. Modern desktop software would not run well on such a low-power device, which is kind of exactly why the iPad doesn't run it at all. But leaner code could easily allow modern implementations of functions performed by P3-class desktops, which would continue to be perfectly adequate if desktop programmers actually cared about resource management anymore. The limitation is not a functional one, but instead one requiring efficient programming of a type not ordinarily done on desktop platforms anymore. 256MB was standard issue less than a decade ago on full-blown computers. Pretending that it's some woefully inadequate amount for a device running efficient applications on a highly optimized OS is silly.

"People" meaning users of one game that the developers have admitted is a bug they're looking into.

Where? If you're trying to run CS4, sure. But you couldn't do that, anyway.

Well that's pretty reassuring,thank you!
I guess we'll see in the coming days how much of an issue this could be as testers put it through it's paces,in time for me to cancel my 3G order.
Taking a step back(and a calming deep breath)it's pretty hard to believe Apple would release a device which would so obviously have the problems described,since they haven't made such a misstep in a long time(not talking about manufacturing defects,but truly serious glaring defective design,which some are predicting this will turn out to be).
I guess we'll all know soon!

 

[deconstruct60]

I would be surprised if the iPad could effectively achieve feature parity with Photoshop 6, which ran acceptably on MUCH more constrained hardware.

With Pentium 3 era images sure. However, Photoshop may not be the best representative example because the average camera image sizes have grown over the years. In genera yes though, there is enough memory to run 1 (or 2 ) programs with reasonable functionality in that amount of memory.


But sure, if want to do work on file sizes from 5-8 years ago (which are still quite useful... folks were getting work done back then... maybe more since everyone wasn't carrying around a game player. LOL. ) the iPad can be a "good enough" platform.

 

[E.Lizardo]

It could be an issue if Apple starts supporting multitasking on the next generation software. if Apple does "Multitasking" the correct way for this platform and just suspends the process to flash, it will not be a problem.

Thanks!
The only multitasking I'm personally interested in is Pandora or other streaming audio.I know others might need more though.

 

[E.Lizardo]

BTW, I love how "shoved down your throat" seems to be a catch phrase in America these days...

Bill Clinton started it!

 

[Thunderhawks]

That is a gross insult to normal users. Basically you are saying normal users should take whatever Apple shoves down their collective throats and keep quite. Sad, very sad. Using your logic 128MB of RAM should be good enough for everybody.

Dave

Well Mr. Dave, it looks like you want specs for this product that are not supposed to be there.

I am sure Apple designed a balanced "Reader" where ram, graphics, speed, battery consumption etc. are all integrated.

I can't even follow your criticism.

Don't buy it or better yet open up your own company and develop the product that you want to have.

Apple shoves nothing down anybody's throats or grossly insults anybody.
They put a product out there that you either buy or not.

"Normal users" will be extremely happy about the simplicity of the ipad.

"Abnormal users" should buy an MBP, the ipad is not for them.

BTW: My 80 year old mother thinks this is finally the computer for her.
No buttons, no lid, only use your hands and sit on the couch.

The only Ram she is worried about is me, as I am an Aries

 

[E.Lizardo]

Super Secret Camera in iPad 3G!!!!!!!!

YaY iPad 3G has a camera!!!
Best Buy sez so!!!
So I'm @ best buy an hour ago and this slimy salespunk is talking to the poor innocent customer next to me,telling him how an iPad is a GREAT laptop replacement and nobody will use laptops anymore yada yada.Then The guy asks about a camera and he says he's going to"pop mine open and slap a camera in there,they're only $20"
Aside from the probable hardware issues,I asked"Wouldn't you have to jailbreak it to use the camera?"
"Oh no,the 3G,which he said is going to be released 4/21, has a camera!"
I quizzed him about his source,he said some rumor site(unnamed)and he"knows someone who works at Apple",even though he said seconds earlier that even Apple people didn't know.Then he went on to explain to another guy that he could just plug a webcam into the upcoming camera adapter for video chats.
Made me soooo glad I long ago quit spending at best buy.I only was there since it's closer than the Apple store.
I should have made a bet on that camera.

 

[Nausicaa]

How about the ModBook? I haven't had a chance to use OS X on one of those.

The ModBook is really only useful for artwork. And the fact is, it's big, bulky, and heavy. I personally know artists (a small sample, I know) who basically shelved it as a mobile art device once they started doing on-the-go work with their iPhone/Touch, and now with the iPad, they feel there's no reason to really use it. Of course, these people also have Wacom Cintiqs for 'serious' work. On that note, for the price of a ModBook, one could buy a Cintiq.

Don't get me wrong, the ModBook is a lot of fun, but it's prohibitively expensive for most people. I find no enjoyment running MacOSX on a tablet style device.

 

[matticus008]

With Pentium 3 era images sure. However, Photoshop may not be the best representative example because the average camera image sizes have grown over the years.

I'm not really sure what that means. Image sizes aren't really an issue--Photoshop 6 will open a 12MP image easily. The average RAW file is not much bigger than the typical preproduction PSD file that Photoshop has handled for ages. For simple photo editing, I know a great many people who still fire up Photoshop 6/7 on old computers, because it continues to get the job done. Working with a single image at a time, there's no real issue--having several 12MP RAW files open is just not realistic on a tablet, and that would indeed be an issue. PSD sizes haven't inflated that much since then.

But sure, if want to do work on file sizes from 5-8 years ago (which are still quite useful... folks were getting work done back then...

Photoshop documents regularly broke 75MB then and continued to work acceptably. File size is not really an issue, certainly not of simple photos, anyway. If you're talking about firing up 400MB PSDs on an iPad, I think were having two separate conversations.

 

[wizard]

Consider what I said.

Not necessarily so. Depends on what the manufacturer does.

Note the use of the word often.

At one point in a products life cycle there will be no time to rethink, tinker or re-evaluate or we'd never see a product.

This is very true eventually you have to ship. In this case even if you have to little memory.

But, after the introduction, sales and shipping pressure is over, one can attend to "better" the device.

Yep we see that all the time in operating systems.

Better means value analysis, sometimes driven by consumer feedback, sometimes based on improving profit margin, being able to use better quality parts etc.etc.

Better can mean different things to different people. I can say that more RAM is better but some body else might be concerned about battery life.

For example buying larger size hard drives may be more economic when manufacturers produce the new capacities en masse and abandon the smaller sizes.

Same for chips, LED screens etc.

Some manufacturers decide on cheaper parts which DON'T improve the quality. You can thin plastic parts, metal gauges etc.

The point I was after is that the price of the part is not an indicator of quality. Many in this forum confuse that issue.

As for the original post, as pointless as always.

Nobody can just buy the components and if a product is great and the price is what I am willing to pay, I couldn't care less what parts cost.

Exactly which is why the amount of RAM in the device changed the value equation for me. What I might have been willing to pay for a 3G has changed because the value is no longer there due to the less than expected RAM. The facts changed my mind here.

We live in information overload times. Why clog up your brain to memorize a stupid analysis like that.

Such info is of value to many people. The fact that few here understand the info is beside the point. Companies like iSupply us the media noise around Apple releases as a form of advertising that costs them very little. While the reports are published widely in forums such as these the goal is to wave the flag at iSuply so that potential customers will take notice.


Dave

 

[Thunderhawks]

Note the use of the word often.
This is very true eventually you have to ship. In this case even if you have to little memory.

Yep we see that all the time in operating systems.

Better can mean different things to different people. I can say that more RAM is better but some body else might be concerned about battery life.

The point I was after is that the price of the part is not an indicator of quality. Many in this forum confuse that issue.

Exactly which is why the amount of RAM in the device changed the value equation for me. What I might have been willing to pay for a 3G has changed because the value is no longer there due to the less than expected RAM. The facts changed my mind here.


Such info is of value to many people. The fact that few here understand the info is beside the point. Companies like iSupply us the media noise around Apple releases as a form of advertising that costs them very little. While the reports are published widely in forums such as these the goal is to wave the flag at iSuply so that potential customers will take notice.


Dave

So, why don't you just wait until Apple puts as much RAM in as you think you want, plus whatever other features you "expect"?

I never buy a first or for that matter even second generation of any Apple product. (Learned from past experiences)

Lived all my life without an ipad and I don't think waiting longer will ruin my life.

Within the next 6 months this thing will have a camera for sure and I wouldn't even be surprised to see it get projecting capabilities.

You'll get your additional memory and increased storage too

In the meantime, I'll wait for the hoopla to die down, so I can play with the top model. From all I read it does all of what I do with my desktop or Laptop, which is mainly e-mail, reading newspapers and watching movies.
Playing a few FREE app games.

IMO Mosberg'd review from the Wall Street Journal used it exactly the way it is intended to be used and it did all tasks fast and well.

Anytime people complain (FLASH, etc.) about what it doesn't do I just think : It's not for you then.

How difficult is that?

 

[Consultant]

How about the ModBook? I haven't had a chance to use OS X on one of those.

Modbook doesn't cost $500. Modbook is more for a limited audience.

The conversion itself is way for than $500 if I remember it correctly. I do use my 17" MBP standing up sometimes but I had to switch arms frequently.

With the iPad I can hold it in one hand to read while I cook, for example.

 

[Consultant]

I never buy a first or for that matter even second generation of any Apple product. (Learned from past experiences)

...

Within the next 6 months this thing will have a camera for sure and I wouldn't even be surprised to see it get projecting capabilities.

First generation iPhone works great. Sold plenty of them, no one had a problem.

Camera? That's what people said about the iPod touch.

 

[JeffDM]

Companies sell stuff for a loss all the time. Amazon is selling it's books for a loss to run their competition out of business. People who buy iPhones by lots off applications, music and movies. People who buy an iPad will buy even more.

Think of the companies that sell razors below cost because they know they will make the difference up selling the blades.

Apple doesn't necessarily operate similarly to other companies. I don't think Apple sells any product expecting it to be a loss leader or loss for the sole reason of upselling or making it up on accessories & media. It's hard to back that up, but then, I think it's harder to back up a claim that Apple is loss-leading.

As it is, I don't think enough people are buying a lot of apps that would make up for your hypothetical losses. People download a lot of apps, but the estimates I've seen suggest that the free apps are downloaded more than all paid apps combined. I don't see how a hypothetical loss on a $500 product can be made up for in $4.99 apps, that's far too unbalanced, it's not like a loss on a $4.99 (or free) handle to be made up for in $4.99 packs of razors.

7 million iPads for this year? That estimate (like the iPad) is on steroids. With 300K sales for 3 weeks, that's about 14,285 unit/day and assuming that rate is sustainable till the end of the year, that's only another 3.9M devices for the rest of 2010. Whatever they are smoking, I like some too!

This is just the WiFi model in the US. What about 3G? What about non-US sales? Maybe the projections are optimistic, but there are things left out of your consideration.

 

[Vulpinemac]

Again not the least bit important. These are estimates of cost to manufacture that is all. The problem is we have a bunch of democrates on this forum that don't understand what that means.


Dave

I think you'll find that most of the noisemakers are Windows Zealots who would like nothing more than to make anything Apple look bad, even their financials.

 

[Vulpinemac]

7 million iPads for this year? That estimate (like the iPad) is on steroids. With 300K sales for 3 weeks, that's about 14,285 unit/day and assuming that rate is sustainable till the end of the year, that's only another 3.9M devices for the rest of 2010. Whatever they are smoking, I like some too!

You assume that the sales rates didn't change during that 3-week period. If you consider that Apple estimates that number now at 750K at the 4-week period, that jumps to over 35,714 per day which would add up to 9.6M by the end of the year, and that doesn't even consider the 3G version hitting the market in another couple of weeks.