iTMS Downloads Top 200 Million

[jxyama]

the songs sold nicely follows a 2nd degree polynomial. the formula on the chart is a little off, it's the weird math excel does with the dates.

with days since april 28, 2003, the fit is:

songs sold = 0.0006*days^2 - 0.0549*days + 3.7629

projected numbers:

MWSF (1/12/05?): 215 million
2 year anniversary (4/28/2005): 300 million
WWDC '05 (7/10/05?): 360 million
end of the year 2005: 550 million

i doubt this projection will even hold for MWSF...

 

[gekko513]

Thanks jxyama, that's a nice chart. Good for Apple. Now please bring the store to Norway.

 

[liketom]

good stuff , i was thinking that my iTunes store buying was slipping as well , only 4 albums this month compared to 8 last month lol

here's to 1,000,000,000 lol

 

[maelstromr]

Well thats good (see quote below ), but its only for the usa, Apple is forgetting the rest of the world. Napster are making better initiatives than Apple, for example, in the UK you can buy Napster vouchers from Dixons ( Dixons being the largest chain of electronic stores ). Where are such initiatives from Apple?

Apple appears to be resting on their lorrals. I don't care if Apple have the market share, they need to be more proactive about where you can buy pre paid vouchers from etc. Napster will catch Apple up ( market share), I'm very sure of that.

Napster are marketing their store better than Apple - i.e., cheaper sales for bulk users ( universities) , partnering with Store Chains - internationally.

Apple are far behind in their marketing initiatives and they need to improve otherwise Napster will pass iTMS, at some point.


"

This seems like an awefully subjective statement couched as fact. "Better initiatives?" Come on, is there ANY indication Napster is even thinking about approaching Apple's market right now?

I guess there always has to be one doomsayer predicting the fall of the company...you guys want to be the first to call the next microsoft/windows-ascension-over-Apple-controlling-a-market type thing. So far, I think Jobs is brilliant and I completely trust his judgement on the next 10 years of Apple evolution.

 

[wdlove]

It would seem that have iTunes fro the Mac & PC has been very profitable. Also having a store now in Europe and Canada. That is amazing to have sold 100 million since July.

 

[azdude]

Hmm

It's still not quite exponential, but it's a really healthy continuation of rate, with a small increase:

EDIT: Damn... I've been beaten!

 

[fabsgwu]

Gift Cards

I'm glad Apple is now selling iTMS gift cards at BestBuy, Target, 7-11 etc., because last year I made two attempts to send iTunes gift certificates, once via email (recipient never got it) and once via US mail (never arrived). Of course my credit card was charged, Apple refunded the first (lost email), but I gave up on the mailed one. Sending things of monetary value through email (i.e. gift certificates) seems unsound to me, since people are most likely going to think its junk.

Would you clik on an email that said "Your friend David has just sent you a $25 iTunes Gift Certificate!"

 

[Stella]

Apple don't release sales figures per country. In some countries Napster could be doing better than iTMS.

The point I was making - Apple have done very little in the way of partnering with companies / organising outside the US, where as Napster have. Apple need to improve this otherwise iTMS will become like their computers - where they do not so well in non-us markets.

Apple don't do promotions in other parts of the world like the offers in us:
- there are no discount days such as you get for us thanksgiving ( Apple don't even do this in Canada for its thanksgiving)).
- apple only offers us customers the paypal promotion - NO excuse for this
- some .mac promotions only for us customers.

So, iTMS could become like apple computers where the us is the most popular market for macs. This situation has come about due to lack of promotions, over inflated currency conversions.

btw: This is NOT doomsayer'ing.

This is a tad off topic, but apple need to promote iTMS throughout the world, not just the us.

This seems like an awefully subjective statement couched as fact. "Better initiatives?" Come on, is there ANY indication Napster is even thinking about approaching Apple's market right now?

I guess there always has to be one doomsayer predicting the fall of the company...you guys want to be the first to call the next microsoft/windows-ascension-over-Apple-controlling-a-market type thing. So far, I think Jobs is brilliant and I completely trust his judgement on the next 10 years of Apple evolution.

 

[azdude]

Would you clik on an email that said "Your friend David has just sent you a $25 iTunes Gift Certificate!"

Security Notice:
Forward all such spam to me for analysis!

 

[jxyama]

Apple don't release sales figures per country. In some countries Napster could be doing better than iTMS.

highly doubtful. napster hasn't released any numbers. in fact, Real's announcement the other day of 3 million tracks in 3 weeks of 50% off promotion is just about the first time i've heard of anyone but iTMS releasing numbers.

they all say it's difficult to track because they also have subscription. whatever.

edit: actually, napster did release a number. back in feb this year, they said they had sold 5 million tracks. they've been around since oct '03. no other words from them.

 

[AmigoMac]

Would you clik on an email that said "Your friend David has just sent you a $25 iTunes Gift Certificate!"

wouldn't you?

send me one and I'll tell you...

 

[macridah]

oh yeah! So the person that downloaded the 200 million song didn't get a call from Steve?

 

[Fredstar]

This is quiet an achievement, they really have grasped the market pretty much globally.
Does anyone have any figures to compare with other legal music downloading companies? Just intrigued to see how dominant the itunes store is compared.

 

[swissmann]

This is quiet an achievement, they really have grasped the market pretty much globally.
Does anyone have any figures to compare with other legal music downloading companies? Just intrigued to see how dominant the itunes store is compared.

I second this request. If anyone would like to post numbers that would be great. Thanks.

 

[dejo]

here's a chart... based only on apple's own press release...

Wow. y = 0.0006x^2 - 45.701x + 829953? Really? That is great news!

 

[Bengt77]

I don't understand?!...

How does one unsuccessfully sell 200 million songs?

 

[Stella]

How does one unsuccessfully sell 200 million songs?

When it takes 200 years to achieve it!

 

[Raid]

It's still not quite exponential, but it's a really healthy continuation of rate, with a small increase

It seems that there are only 13 observations in azdude's chart, and maybe less than that for jxyama's. I like the R-squared fit of jxyama's regression but it does assume a non-zero constant and the small number of observable data would make forecasting quite error prone. -> Translation: I think it's a bit too early to predict the future, but trend looks promising!

 

[eazyway]

Based on a fixed iPod base.

the songs sold nicely follows a 2nd degree polynomial. the formula on the chart is a little off, it's the weird math excel does with the dates.

with days since april 28, 2003, the fit is:

songs sold = 0.0006*days^2 - 0.0549*days + 3.7629

projected numbers:

MWSF (1/12/05?): 215 million
2 year anniversary (4/28/2005): 300 million
WWDC '05 (7/10/05?): 360 million
end of the year 2005: 550 million

i doubt this projection will even hold for MWSF...

Your prediction shows that 2005 sales will be just under 30M a month. They are already at 25M a month with a rapidly expanding iPod base. So I feel that your numbers are low. Check you equation it seems a bit off.

 

[SiliconAddict]

What the heck? ITMS is still in the millions? Millions is sooo yesterday's news. Lets see that billion word get thrown around.

 

[eazyway]

Apple don't do promotions in other parts of the world like the offers in us:
- there are no discount days such as you get for us thanksgiving ( Apple don't even do this in Canada for its thanksgiving)).



Wrong

Last year I bought 3 iPods at the educational price plus 10 % off and free shipping and engraving from the Apple canada site for my children's Christmas gifts. I don't think they did it this year.

 

[jxyama]

Your prediction shows that 2005 sales will be just under 30M a month. They are already at 25M a month with a rapidly expanding iPod base. So I feel that your numbers are low. Check you equation it seems a bit off.

i only listed the numbers because the polynomial fit was quite good. (there's no inherent reason to think it's a polynomial function, though.) i think the predictions are low too, so that's why i said i don't think the number will hold even for MWSF. based on the fit, 215 mil. is projected, but i think there's a good chance the holiday crowd will push that number to nearly 250 mil. by MWSF.

another method would be to fit a curve on the rate of songs sold and do a projection based on that...

i'm still amazed that the rate of songs purchased is actually increasing. still waiting for it to plateau... who knows when?

 

[egsaxy]

The point I was making - Apple have done very little in the way of partnering with companies / organising outside the US, where as Napster have. Apple need to improve this otherwise iTMS will become like their computers - where they do not so well in non-us markets.

i didn't realize that apple computers did so well in the USA over the rest of the world. where the stats?

 

[Yvan256]

Congrats. I guess the closest competitor would be Napster?

There's competitors?

 

[Yvan256]

200 million. Good.

However is the purchase rate speeding up or slowing down ( taking into account the new stores ) ?

And is that 200M for the iTMS USA only, or all iTMS combined?

I'd like to see iTMS Canada numbers...