Yes. Well put.
Couple thoughts in response, though. One, perhaps we'll see Apple eventually buy an outside company in order to have their own content library that could be used in Apple TV+ (and potentially other ways). There aren't that many options available now, really. I'd say Disney, AT&T (WarnerMedia), and Comcast (NBCUniversal) are all too big/problematic. I suppose CBS is an option, although they're about to swallow Viacom, then probably Lionsgate (Starz), then possibly AMC and/or MGM. That leaves Sony, the company whose TV execs Apple wooed away to launch Apple TV+. I think there are a lot of synergies between Sony and Apple, not only in Sony Pictures (movies & TV libraries), but also Sony Music label, the PS Vue streaming cable TV service, their consumer electronics (mainly high-quality TVs that could run tvOS rather than Android TV, plus digital cameras/imaging), and their PlayStation gaming division. There are bits of Sony that Apple would want to spin off but most of it makes sense as an acquisition, I think.
Other thought: Apple TV Channels, those add-on third-party subscriptions that live natively within Apple's TV app, are populated by what I would call "second-tier" streaming services. I don't mean that in terms of their content quality but rather because they're not major services that were "born digital," namely Netflix, Hulu and Amazon Prime Video. Instead, they're hybrid traditional/digital services like HBO, Showtime, Starz, Cinemax, Epix, Sundance Now, and more niche offerings like Acorn TV, PBS Living, etc.
But what happens if the biggest of those second-tier services evolve into major digital-first competitors to Netflix and Hulu? Perhaps they will no longer allow all of their content to be subsumed within Apple's UI. Perhaps eventually, like Netflix, they'll no longer even allow new subscriptions to begin inside their own app on Apple devices in order to avoid paying a 20-30% cut to Apple. The first second-tier services that could go that route are HBO and Cinemax, which are rumored to be combined (along with a lot more new and old WarnerMedia content) into "HBO Max" this fall. It will be interesting to see if the new HBO Max service participates in Apple TV Channels.
And what about CBS and its services? CBS All Access isn't yet part of Apple TV Channels but supposedly will be soon. But CBS is also on the verge of remerging with Viacom, which owns a lot of content, cable channels and the free ad-supported Pluto TV streaming app. It's not hard to imagine a lot of those newly acquired assets getting rolled into CBS All Access to make it more of a direct competitor to Hulu with Live TV. Especially if it offers all of Pluto TV's live ad-supported streaming channels, you can see how the company would want users to come directly into their own app rather than through Apple's UI in the TV app. And CBS has also put out a bid to buy Starz, the #3 premium service, which could easily be combined with CBS's own Showtime, the #2 premium, to create a new premium streaming powerhouse. Maybe it won't want or need Apple TV Channels.
Beyond those existing services, will we see the upcoming Disney+ or next year's NBCU on-demand service distributed through Apple TV Channels? My bet is no, we won't.
In the end, all of the largest streaming services are going to want subscribers to spend time inside their own apps (providing useful data) and, if possible, they'll want to cut out the distribution middle-men (like Apple and Amazon and Roku) so that they can retain as much of their subscription profits as possible. Is it possible that come 2022, the largest offering available in Apple TV Channels is Epix?