Perhaps all refurb units have had the upgrade done, if old serial number was covered under repair program, or won’t be placed in refurb program. But that possibility isn’t Macrumors level anti-Apple enough"First retail sale of the unit" sounds like the first retail sale of your particular unit. Meaning that your particular unit may have been resold to you and warranty transferred to you some time after it was first bought, but this program would cover you for 4 years starting from when the unit was first sold at retail, not when your particular unit was resold to you.
But yes, good advice. Call Apple to confirm.
Because I’m bored, I took 5 minutes and chatted with Apple. The start date is model year and date you purchase refurbished according to chat. So all refurbished will expire in 2020 or 2021 on your purchase date, again according to chat. They also said that units with a defective keyboard would be repaired so you get a second replacement on those machines.
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