The 3-year cycle will undoubtedly hurt overall sales.
You have to balance that against the lengthening of iPhone user upgrading cycles. In that case, the user controls when they decide to
Upgrade despite whatever model happens to be for sale. Also, much of the reason for a longer model / chassis life may be to stretch amortization of parts and labor costs out out of a particular unit which ultimately drives down costs and leaves margins relatively intact as the models get discounted in later years. It also provides for older models to become well known midrange models without having to create brand new but lower priced models. The iPhone 11 is a perfect example of that, being an updated XR but actually having a lower build cost due to decreased RAM prices and amortized chassis costs.
The Fold has sold like crazy in Korea. In due time folding devices will be more affordable and the next wave in smartphones. It sure as hell ain't glasses.
Hmm, sold like crazy? They sold 3000 and 1000 units. Some were bought by resellers who sold them for double the $2K price to crazy rich Asians who missed out and couldn’t wait, but Samsung didn’t book those resales. 4000 units.
Second wave of preorders, Samsung would like to get it 1 million to the world market with 20K-30K to S. Korea. So at best, 34K for S. Korea for now if they sell out. If 20 countries each sold like that, they would sell 680K and adding S. Korea that would total 714K.
Samsung hopes to sell 1 million units. 714K would be impressive, and of course if demand is there, they would build and sell more, although the 285K inventory would have to sell first. I don’t think Samsung wants to be caught with really expensive unsold inventory in the pipeline and have to discount the phones within 6-12 months to get them to sell, not a good look.
So maybe selling a lot better than Essential, but way less than a Pixel.
The one caveat to all that is when, not if, 10, 20, or more social media posts start coming out about ANY problems, defects, damage, durability issues, or outright failures occur, then all bets are off. $2000 devices, especially for those owners where $2K is very dear, lead to very high expectations. Media and owners of Ultra-Premium priced products will not be forgiving if another Fold-gate/Note 7 event happens again or durability proves to be less than a year.
What is the warranty on the Fold anyway?
Hope my iPhone 8 can hold out until then.
If the lifetimes of the 6/6S/7 series is any indication, you should have nothing to worry about.