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I was playing Mario Kart Tour today at work on my iPhone XR, my friend was playing it on his Galaxy S7 and it looked gorgeous, my XR screen looked so washed out and crap in comparison... cannot wait for its replacement next year to catch up with several year old tech and get an OLED screen!
 
The 3-year cycle will undoubtedly hurt overall sales.

You have to balance that against the lengthening of iPhone user upgrading cycles. In that case, the user controls when they decide to
Upgrade despite whatever model happens to be for sale. Also, much of the reason for a longer model / chassis life may be to stretch amortization of parts and labor costs out out of a particular unit which ultimately drives down costs and leaves margins relatively intact as the models get discounted in later years. It also provides for older models to become well known midrange models without having to create brand new but lower priced models. The iPhone 11 is a perfect example of that, being an updated XR but actually having a lower build cost due to decreased RAM prices and amortized chassis costs.

The Fold has sold like crazy in Korea. In due time folding devices will be more affordable and the next wave in smartphones. It sure as hell ain't glasses.

Hmm, sold like crazy? They sold 3000 and 1000 units. Some were bought by resellers who sold them for double the $2K price to crazy rich Asians who missed out and couldn’t wait, but Samsung didn’t book those resales. 4000 units.

Second wave of preorders, Samsung would like to get it 1 million to the world market with 20K-30K to S. Korea. So at best, 34K for S. Korea for now if they sell out. If 20 countries each sold like that, they would sell 680K and adding S. Korea that would total 714K.

Samsung hopes to sell 1 million units. 714K would be impressive, and of course if demand is there, they would build and sell more, although the 285K inventory would have to sell first. I don’t think Samsung wants to be caught with really expensive unsold inventory in the pipeline and have to discount the phones within 6-12 months to get them to sell, not a good look.

So maybe selling a lot better than Essential, but way less than a Pixel.

The one caveat to all that is when, not if, 10, 20, or more social media posts start coming out about ANY problems, defects, damage, durability issues, or outright failures occur, then all bets are off. $2000 devices, especially for those owners where $2K is very dear, lead to very high expectations. Media and owners of Ultra-Premium priced products will not be forgiving if another Fold-gate/Note 7 event happens again or durability proves to be less than a year.

What is the warranty on the Fold anyway?

Hope my iPhone 8 can hold out until then.

If the lifetimes of the 6/6S/7 series is any indication, you should have nothing to worry about.
 
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I agree 100% with everything said above. I am very concerned that they will get rid off/or make smaller the current 5.8" Pro. Most who have an X/Xs/11Pro in 5.8" WILL NOT want to go to a smaller phone, or be forced to go to a smaller phone; and almost all of these people will definitely not want to go to an EVEN BIGGER 6.7" vs. 6.5" Max. I know plenty of people who went from 5.8" X to 6.5" XS Max just to complain about the size of the device for a year and to now go to a 5.8" 11Pro.

Again, agree, my hope is that 6.1" and 6.7" are new (for next year) Pro models, where they either shrunk the notch (which does not bother me at all, I feel like the notch only bothers those people who don't own an X/11 gen phone) or tweaked the screen to body ratio just enough to bump the sizes from 5.8 to 6.1 and from 6.5 to 6.7. I could definitely see them adding a smaller "mini" phone in roughly 5.4" to replace the current SE (especially if the design language of the new phones will look anything like the SE design language). But THEY HAVE TO ADD that 5.4" to TWO other Pro sizes, as opposed to replace the 5.8 with a 5.4. And if they really will have 3 phone sizes in the Pro lineup, then they probably should spread them out more, i.e. 5.4 -- 6.1 -- 6.7; as opposed to 5.4 -- 5.8 -- 6.5.

I am certain that the Xr and/or 11 (most likely 11) will stay in the line-up for years to come. So that will continue to be the 6.1" phone, which makes me worry that the 6.1" phone in this rumor may not be the 5.8"=>6.1" Pro as I discussed in the paragraph above.
I hope Apple does do what we both hope.

On a couple of open issues I had from my last post, one because I hadn't read the rumours properly and one you mention in your last paragraph above...

On the 5.4"/6.1"/6.8" rumours I was wondering where the 5.4" might sit (cheaper LCD or OLED?) but on reading up a bit more I see that at least one rumour says all three would be OLED which makes sense so essentially if true Apple would be offering the Pro in 3 different sizes in 2020. If they all use the same design language of iPhone 4 or iPhone 5(*) with virtually bezel-free screens running all the way to the metal side band then, by removing the curvature at the edge of the front glass, it is possible that the 6.1" and 6.8" might be virtually identical in height and width to the current 11 Pro and 11 Pro Max and the 5.4" becomes appreciably smaller than the current 5.8" model.

(*) there being a slight difference between the two in terms of how far the front glass projects out forward of the side band or not. Flush-with-sides front glass (e.g. like the latest iPad Pros) would seem more damage resistant to me and also offer fully flat bezel areas around the screen which, if another rumour that Apple has already prototyped a 6.7" unit that hides the sensors in a very thin bezel at the top is true (https://www.macrumors.com/2019/09/26/2020-iphone-prototype-without-notch/), would seem to be helpful there in offering a bigger flat area to put those sensors under.

On the second point, how would continued production of the iPhone 11 sit in that 2020 lineup, perhaps that really isn't a problem and maybe your concern is unfounded.

Apple might be simply saying that it realises that not everyone can afford the Pro models so it will continue to offer a more affordable option but, because it doesn't want to confuse its product lineup with a gazillion different iPhone models, if someone wants the affordable option then they are only offered one screen option, 6.1", which at least is the middle size vs the 5.4"/6.1"/6.8" spectrum available for the Pro models so is likely to be at least an acceptable compromise for the maximum number of lower-cost purchasers and the perfect sweet spot for quite a few. I don't think it would be confusing that Apple had 2 models at 6.1" in 2020 because the two 6.1" models would be very well differentiated in terms of price, screen technology, internals (LCD unit a generation behind), camera and design language.

All in all if the above came to pass I think 2020 would be a great year with just the right balance between clarity (not too many models) and choice.

Personally for me my 2020 choice would come down to how thin Apple could get the bezels using the new case design because that would determine how much, if any, size increase there would be between the new 6.1" & 6.8" models vs the current 11 Pro and 11 Pro Max. Right now I'm a few-day-old first time 11 Pro Max user having upgraded from a 5.8" XS and I'm actually finding that I'm OK with the bigger size (just). If Apple really can get a 6.8" screen into the same physical dimensions, or maybe I'd allow them an extra 1 or 2 mm at most on the width (I don't care so much about the height), then I'd probably go 6.8" next year but if the 6.8" got noticeably bigger than the current Max then I'd downsize to the 6.1".
 
An almost 1 1/2" difference between the two pro models doesn't make any sense to me. Decreasing the size of the smaller pro and increasing the size of the max doesn't seem like something there is a great demand for. I understand that there are those who would like a new SE phone, but that would be a less expensive phone, so a 5.4" OLED phone would not be applicable.
 
The 4's metal band was always a looker, save for the scratches it accumulated over time.
 
An almost 1 1/2" difference between the two pro models doesn't make any sense to me. Decreasing the size of the smaller pro and increasing the size of the max doesn't seem like something there is a great demand for. I understand that there are those who would like a new SE phone, but that would be a less expensive phone, so a 5.4" OLED phone would not be applicable.
If they do go with iPad Pro (iPhone 5) design then the fact that the screen stays flat pretty much all the way to the point where it meets the metal side band vs how the screen on the iPhone 11 Pros curves away (down) at the edges might mean that the 2020 iPhone Pro/Pro-Max can go from the 5.8"/6.5" screen sizes to 6.1"/6.8" screen sizes while maintaining to within maybe 1mm the same height and width as the current 11 Pros. It might not be a case of Apple deciding to make everything even bigger but rather a case of Apple saying "well, people are accustomed to the current physical size of the iPhone 11 Pro/Pro-Max so in 2020 let us use the new design language (metal band around the outside) to give them as much screen as we can within the same physical dimensions.

On whether a 5.4" model will be OLED or lower cost LCD admittedly the rumours have been very mixed on that. Some rumours have said that all of 5.4", 6.1" and 6.8" would be OLED and others have said that 5.4" and 6.8" would be OLED and 6.1" LCD. I hope that last rumour is wrong and is simply jumping to a false conclusion that because 6.1" is LCD in 2019 then a 6.1" phone in 2020 will be an upgrade of that line. Personally I still hope that my speculation in the paragraph above is what will happen and maybe the lower cost phone will be provided by keeping the current iPhone 11 (non-Pro) on the market next year or, as you say, possibly the 5.4" as a low-cost LCD offering. However, I'm not sure I agree with your thoughts on the 5.4"...

I'm not sure that I would write-off the 5.4" (if it comes out) as a second-tier cheaper phone. Just because people want a smaller phone doesn't necessarily mean they want cheap. In the old days iPhone 4 for instance was the one and only offering positioned as a very high end phone in the overall market. I could be wrong but I suspect there is still a market out there for people who would want a much smaller but still top-of-the-line phone. I wonder whether in 2020 retaining the current 6.1" LCD model might be Apple's sole offering for the lower-cost market. Perhaps by focusing it's lower-cost efforts on a single model that has already been in manufacture for a year it can drive down costs and reduce price vs this year to get greater penetration into new markets.
 
I was playing Mario Kart Tour today at work on my iPhone XR, my friend was playing it on his Galaxy S7 and it looked gorgeous, my XR screen looked so washed out and crap in comparison... cannot wait for its replacement next year to catch up with several year old tech and get an OLED screen!

I think its because Apple uses a color profile on their screens that makes it look different. the color profile samsung uses is more saturated and makes everything pop more. The profile Apple uses is supposed to make things look more true to life...... I honestly cannot tell the difference between the OLED displays and LCD displays when it comes to Apple devices because of this.
 
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I think its because Apple uses a color profile on their screens that makes it look different. the color profile samsung uses is more saturated and makes everything pop more. The profile Apple uses is supposed to make things look more true to life...... I honestly cannot tell the difference between the OLED displays and LCD displays when it comes to Apple devices because of this.
I can tell the difference quite easily. OLED looks much better to me.
 
OLED should look better since you do pay extra for it. However LED isn’t bad, at least I have no issues with it. Either way it’s Apple and they don’t usually make junk so it’s a win/win imo.
 
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