Kuo: Apple to Launch Several Macs With Arm-Based Processors in 2021, USB4 Support Coming to Macs in 2022

[Mago]

Apple plans to launch several Mac notebooks and desktop computers with its own custom designed Arm-based processors in 2021, analyst Ming-Chi Kuo said today in a research note obtained by MacRumors.

Kuo believes that Arm-based processors will significantly enhance the competitive advantage of the Mac lineup, allow Apple to refresh its Mac models without relying on Intel's processor roadmap, reduce processor costs by 40 to 60 percent, and provide Macs with more hardware differentiation from Windows PCs.

Earlier this month, Kuo said Apple's first Mac notebooks with Arm-based processors will launch in the fourth quarter of 2020 or the first quarter of 2021.

Kuo expects ASMedia Technology to become the exclusive supplier of USB controllers for Arm-based Macs, adding that the Taiwanese integrated circuit designer will benefit from Macs gaining support for USB4 in 2022.

USB4 converges the Thunderbolt and USB protocols as part of Intel's goal to make Thunderbolt available on a royalty-free basis, which should result in wider and cheaper availability of Thunderbolt accessories like docks and eGPUs.

As USB4 is based on Thunderbolt 3, it offers data transfer speeds up to 40 Gbps, which is twice as fast as the bandwidth of the latest USB 3.2 Gen 2x2 specification. USB4's underlying Thunderbolt 3 protocol also means the specification supports up to two 4K displays or one 5K display over a single cable.

The simplest way to view USB4 is as Thunderbolt 3, but royalty free for manufacturers. Intel will continue to offer Thunderbolt 3 on a standalone basis with a few advantages over USB4, including more support with reference designs and technical issues for manufacturers.

The new USB4 specification was published in September 2019, giving Apple plenty of time to implement it in time for 2022 Macs.

Article Link: Kuo: Apple to Launch Several Macs With Arm-Based Processors in 2021, USB4 Support Coming to Macs in 2022

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Update:

(Hire better translators), ASMedia manufacture X570/TRX40 chipsets for AMD based Mac, that's whats Kuo meant.

 

[nordique]

This could probably sink Intel. These babies will be screamers! I wonder if they’ll play nice with Chrome and all the apps out there. This is a big move by Apple but it makes sense, however, this now puts me in a buy now or wait dilemma regarding a new Mac laptop.

I don’t think so. It would be a bit of hit of course, but wouldn’t come close to sinking them. There are many, many more windows platforms out there that are dependent on intel chips and combined they sell many more products than Apple’s computer line.

Apple doesn’t have a big market share when it comes to laptop raw sales annually, worldwide

 

[Mago]

Weird. I’ll be able to run MacOS on it, and I’ll be able to run Mac software on it, and the software library will explode in volume due to compatibility with iOS.

68k->PowerPC : not the end
PowerPC->x86 : not the end
x86->x86-64. : not the end

But this one is the end?

Sure.

Sorry, Macrumors needs to hire better translators, Kuo meant ASMedia to manufacture chipsets for AMD based Macs (basically custom x570/trx40) as they do now.

Original Kuo's note is only about ASMedia forecast now including apple and usb4 as customer do not details on ARM, however MacRumors assume it's ARM but missed ASMedia manufactures x570 and trx40 chipsets (and it's successor with full tb3/usb4 integration).


(Can't post link to Kuo's subscription content, but this basically put you in context)

ASMedia 600 chipset family for Zen 3 available in late 2020

It has been a rumor for quite some time now, ASMedia fabricating a chipset for AMD Ryzen setups. As it seems, that now has been confirmed by motherboard manufacturers at CES, it's likely starting wit...

www.guru3d.com

Ptsss, also includes ddr5 and pcie5... LMFAO

 

[ksec]

Sure, but nobody cares about virualizing ARM. People run VMware and Parallels so that they can virtualize x86 operating systems and environments. Same for Docker. People use Docker to consume and produce x86 docker images. A move to ARM is the death blow for most cloud-based devops tasks on macOS.

Not sure where you are getting this idea from. AWS is moving to ARM, all of their internal tools and SaaS will be moved to Graviton 2 Instances. ARM will take centre stage in Server market in the next 5 years.

ARM has a roadmap offering up to 70% improvement by 2021, ( in terms of IP years, ) that means product shipping by 2022.

The ~4.5B Smartphone is already on ARM, Server Moving to ARM, it is only a matter of time consumer PCs moves to ARM.

As much as I like AMD, the cost advantage of ARM simply cant be ignored once performance are on par or even exceed their x86 competitors.

Does this mean usb 4 accessories will work with thunderbolt 3?

No, That is what I dont like about the article.

USB 4 = USB 3.2 + Thunderbolt 3. The Thunderbolt is optional and not required, Which means you can have a USB 4 controller but it doesn't support Thunderbolt.

Your USB 4 accessories may only be working in USB mode, Thunderbolt itself does not support any USB protocols. TB3 only uses the hardware USB Type C Port design.

 

[Plutonius]

This could probably sink Intel. These babies will be screamers! I wonder if they’ll play nice with Chrome and all the apps out there. This is a big move by Apple but it makes sense, however, this now puts me in a buy now or wait dilemma regarding a new Mac laptop.

I would buy now.

There will be hardware and software issues when they first come out.

 

[FightTheFuture]

I do. This will be the end of the Mac Desktop. The people that think this is great weren't around for that.

But... macs are still here after the PPC to Intel transition. In fact, you could argue that Apple gained more support than ever by for switching to Intel.

Now, how much software is being developed for macos versus iOS/ipadOS? Do you think Adobe wouldn’t want to be on a Mac if Affinity and Procreate are there at the beginning with their low price offerings?

As for virtualization, we’re well aware that there is a version of Windows running on ARM.

Personally I would rather Apple keep pouring R&D into iPad and let that platform cannibalize Mac. The desktop in general might be on death watch.

 

[lusty]

Wow it’s not even out yet and most comments act like Apple is inventing something here. For those curious, Windows has worked on Arm for many years. Microsoft and their partners have sold Arm based Windows laptops and convertibles for years. Surface Pro X has a custom Arm chip. Adobe is already porting the Windows suite of apps to Arm so doing the Mac side is likely in progress too. Look outside once in a while people, Apple are rarely first, they’re just the ones who make it thin and aluminium, and then cripple it at the two year mark with firmware or software (if the device lasts that long...)

 

[Mago]

Wow it’s not even out yet and most comments act like Apple is inventing something here. For those curious, Windows has worked on Arm for many years. Microsoft and their partners have sold Arm based Windows laptops and convertibles for years. Surface Pro X has a custom Arm chip. Adobe is already porting the Windows suite of apps to Arm so doing the Mac side is likely in progress too. Look outside once in a while people, Apple are rarely first, they’re just the ones who make it thin and aluminium, and then cripple it at the two year mark with firmware or software (if the device lasts that long...)

Yes, but not the case, MacRumors mistranslated Kuo's note and assumed ASMedia to manufacture chipsets for ARM Macs, what's actually Kuo meant is ASMedia (now develops AMD 600s series for Ryzen/Threadripper 4000) to include Apple as customer for it's future USB4 chipsets (to debut later this year with all new iMac Pro).

Hopefully next wwdc will put a nail in this rumor coffin.

An arm Mac has no Sense since the new iPad pro.

 

[anshuvorty]

I am gonna get this laptop when it releases and replace it with my 16-inch MacBook Pro. The boot time is horrendous compared to Windows...

 

[robbo91]

Ah, I am so torn, I am still running a 2013 MacBook pro (which is going great really) and was thinking of upgrading to a 16", either the current model, wait one model (which might be ARM), but then I will probably want USB4. Will USB4 devises work with Thunderbolt 3 based on the comment that USB4 is basically royalty free Thunderbolt?

 

[ani4ani]

iOS runs on ARM unless there is a version I am not familiar with, thus Office for iOS runs on ARM and with Catalyst getting the UX for macOS would not result in a year long refinement process hence Catalyst exists to permit developers universal apps. Adobe has always dragged its heels when it came to macOS transitioning from PPC to x86 and then porting it to iOS. But most have already transitioned to Affinity Photo and other comparable editors. The writing was on the wall for years, don’t like it move along. Adobe has made its library bloatware similar to previous versions of Office. I am glad these companies are being forced to optimize they software code as they were not motivated in the past.

A toy version of Office runs on IOS...let’s be real.

 

[Dreamail]

I remember all the transitions Apple did, from Motorola to PPC to Intel to Intel 64.

And to be honest, it was a pain every time.

When you upgraded your hardware you were suddenly forced to upgrade all of your licensed software as well. This made the hardware upgrades a lot more expensive. Often the software upgrade costs outpaced the hardware costs. If only you could have delayed some of those software upgrades by continuing with the older version...
I think this is why Tim Cook was pushing software subscription models so much recently, in order to reduce these upgrade costs for users. They presumably just continue with their subscription and will eventually get the ARM versions. Or so the hope is.

The real problem is that there will always be some companies that will exit the Mac market at those transition points. They consider the existing user base too small to justify the complete redevelopment for a new platform.
With a move to ARM, I would for example worry about Autodesk products. Will the Mac version of Maya or AutoCAD continue? Or will Autodesk simply tell people to move to Windows or Linux boxes?

If your work depends on that kind of software, you will be forced to leave the Mac ecosystem.
Not by your own choice.

Emulation of Intel CPUs on PPC was also a huge pain because the processor architectures were so different.
Many applications were either terribly slow in emulation or just crashed because some Windows APIs were not correctly emulated.
Running Windows on Intel CPU Macs via VMWare or Parallels products is much simpler because the CPU does not need to be emulated.
This is important for niche products like certain stock market analysis software or machinery control software. These rarely have Mac versions.
Those will be an order of magnitude more painful again with ARM CPUs emulating Intel CPUs.
In the days of PPC, you could not run Window software in a way that you could rely on for your business purposes.
Might be the same again - and forcing even more people to switch platforms.

As was said before, on the whole this move will allow Apple to move computing into new form factors which makes me excited.

But we will lose many current Mac users along the way.
How many? 10-25%? Still, Apple would rather "sacrifice" these users than not move Apple forward.
That is how they always rolled...

 

[AxiomaticRubric]

Apple may feel that the Windows battle is over and no longer needs to support BootCamp.

It is for me, ironically thanks to Microsoft and .NET Core (which runs on macOS and Linux in addition to Windows.)

 

[123]

Why?
Things are going cloud/web based

If that were the case Apple didn't have a problem with Intel delaying processors.

 

[V-l-a-d-i-m-i-r]

To me that's the most exciting Mac rumor in more than a decade. As some members know, I code alternate Boot Camp drivers for Macs (Trackpad++, DrFan control, DimBar...) and have to tell, porting these tools to ARM can be agonizingly exciting ✌ Seriously, Windows 10 for ARM exists already, so even if there's no future Boot Camp for ARM from Apple, someone must make it true... Although I'm afraid Apple can modify ARM arch to make it incompatible with other OS (e.g. nobody ever made Android port for recent iPhones, I think for the same reason)

 

[StoneJack]

Apple is merging Macbooks and iPad Pros.
The expected result: huge market of apps available for new Macbooks ARM, and this market dwarfs anything related with Windows.
Longer battery life, great graphics.
Finally, is anyone needs Windows, I predict that one will be able to install Windows for ARM (it is out there). So your windows installation still will be there.

 

[bluecoast]

The dated design of the iMac and the MacBook suddenly disappearing now makes sense. They’re obviously going to be the first new ARM models.

I wonder too if WWDC will see an ARM Mac Mini developer box with a modified version of the A13 (along with claims that their first Macs will have even better performance than that).

As they get ready for this, Apple risks damaging their Mac sales too in 2019, maybe. But I think they’re ready for that.

Macs are now being positioned as something that businesses and professionals should buy for their work, with consumers pushed to the iPad Pro and regular iPad.

Having a six month or so run-up to recompile Mac software to ARM seems fair, too.

And you can bet that Apple is already working with Adobe and Microsoft on this.

Another random thought: I suspect that we won’t see the successor to Catalina launch until early 2021 (‘Golden Gate’?).

 

[whatta]

Ok, so this can be a reason that we have a two years old CPU in the “new” 2020 iPad. A14X is coming and it will be used in the macs. It’s a huge switch, with huge market impact so they have to make a no brainier power house CPU to impress the non believers. Btw isn’t the senior CPU designer guru of Apple went to Intel two years ago?

 

[Johnny907]

Welp, if this happens then the summer refresh of the 13" MBP will be my last Mac. I need Bootcamp compatibility, and I have no interest in watching ARM struggle to emulate x86 code nor in repurchasing all my apps just so Apple can further pad its profit margins, thanks.

 

[high heaven]

USB 4 takes 2 years to use? Seriously?

 

[iandk]

I hope they release a new Mac Mini with a ARM CPU and finally a good integrated GPU

 

[fairuz]

People need a way of running windows on a Mac

No. I don't know if you have data that suggests this, but one friend and I are the only people I know who do that, and I work for a large corporation.

 

[CarlJ]

Glad I switched back to windows. Apple is only shooting them selves in the foot with this. Oh well. Was different for awhile.

Funny, I just don't find myself expending the energy to go to Windows rumor sites to hang out and tell everybody how happy I am that I switched to Mac and don't have to run Windows any more. Am I missing out?

 

[ridgero]

OK. We all know how the POWERPC IBM G5 Processor era went.
People need a way of running windows on a Mac
its fine for apple to reduce its costs on processors but I really doubt people will spend all that money to buy new software
Windows 10 is it. there will not be a windows 11. And companies rely heavily on the windows eco system and backwards compatibility

By the way. the shape of the economy has a lot to do with what people spend their money on

their were 3.3 Million people that lost their jobs so far today

They are not gonna spend money on ARM Processor Macs with no jobs or income
especially when robots and automation are taking the place of humans.
the future could look like a MAD MAX movie. No one knows.
We have to make wise choices on the environment and not handing too much human responsibility to machines

I like intel and AMD
fixing and upgrading my own computer
like fixing and repairing my own car.

USB 4 I am sure will be available on the X86 platform. No need to go ARM just for that other than Battery life

AMD better than Intel anyway

I and many others don’t need Windows on a Mac.

Why would you need Bootcamp on a Mac?

 

[Stephen.R]

and the software library will explode in volume due to compatibility with iOS.

As someone who claims to be a cpu designer I’m surprised at your naïveté here.

Binary compatibility has never been what stops iOS software running on an x86 Mac. Hint: any iOS app run in the simulator is compiled for x86, and has been from the very first iPhoneOS SDK was released.

The “barrier” is and has always been: a vastly different window/multitasking/interaction paradigm (or lack thereof), combined with the differing system libraries & frameworks.

With the release of Catalyst we’ve gained the ability to "port" iPad apps to macOS, and as a result we've seen some apps being adapted/ported from iPad versions, with varying degrees of success. But it is not just a case of “tick a box and hey presto iOS apps running on macOS”, and I'd wager that zero percent of the challenge is due to that the difference in CPU.


So what "explosion" in software do you expect there to be? 5 million ****** ad-laden iPad fart apps with the minimal effort applied and then shipped for macOS all of a sudden because the authors were too stupid to do it when Catalyst was first announced? Sure that'll make up for all the stuff that won't run any more.


I’m usually in favour of platform advancement when it has advantages, even if there is some pain (eg I think dropping 32bit Support was a good move, and due to mature VM capabilities 32bit apps can still be run at near-full speed if necessary, with zero chance of that support being removed ala Rosetta) but so far I’ve yet to see any compelling argument about how this improves things.

All the talk about being “held up” by Intel, meanwhile Apple just released a new iPad Pro with a cpu that’s essentially unchanged (With 1 additional gpu core) from the one released two years ago. But I thought Apple is unrestricted on arm chips! They're supposed to be able to release unicorns that **** sparkles!