Kuo: Apple Watch Series 4 Pre-Orders Above Expectations, iPhone XS Seeing Lackluster Demand

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Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo has issued a research note today, obtained by MacRumors, outlining his opinions about first-weekend pre-orders for the iPhone XS, iPhone XS Max, and Apple Watch Series 4.


Kuo says Apple Watch Series 4 pre-orders have been "better than expected," as a result of new innovative functions, such as electrocardiogram support. He predicts Apple Watch shipments will reach 18 million units in 2018, with the Series 4 lineup accounting for 50 to 55 percent of those orders.

If the ECG support expands to more countries, Kuo believes the Series 4 lineup could see even stronger shipment momentum.

In contrast, Kuo says iPhone XS pre-orders are "lower-than-expected," as customers opt for the iPhone XS Max or wait for the iPhone XR. Kuo has lowered his forecast for iPhone XS orders, believing the model will account for only 10 to 15 percent of shipments of the new 2018 iPhones, down from 15 to 20 percent.

Kuo says iPhone XS Max pre-orders have been in line with expectations, signifying the success of Apple's high-pricing strategy:
There is strong Chinese demand thanks to the gold casing, dual-SIM, and large display. The XS Max average shipping time is shorter than the 2H17 iPhone X (1-2 weeks vs. 2-3 weeks), which we think is due to supply improvements. We maintain our forecasts that the XS Max will account for 25-30% of 2H18 new iPhone model shipments.
Kuo sees a positive outlook for the iPhone XR, available to pre-order October 19, given its lower pricing and dual-SIM support in China.

The well-known analyst increased his forecast for iPhone XR orders, estimating that the model will account for 55 to 60 percent of shipments of the new 2018 iPhones, up from 50 to 55 percent previously.

"We estimate the shipment peak of XS Max and XS will be in October and XR will start shipping and benefiting supply chain momentum in October," said Kuo.

iPhone XS, iPhone XS Max, and Apple Watch Series 4 pre-orders began Friday.

Article Link: Kuo: Apple Watch Series 4 Pre-Orders Above Expectations, iPhone XS Seeing Lackluster Demand
 

roland.g

macrumors 604
Apr 11, 2005
6,716
1,802
Makes total sense. This is the first screen size change and after 3 plus years is a natural upgrade point for those who have not from the original. Added to which the walkie-talkie mode is not available on the original watch. Many people did not see a reason to upgrade at Series 2 or 3.
 

PJS_SoCal

macrumors newbie
Nov 10, 2017
20
74
It’s an absurd statement that iPhone XS preorders are lackluster because people are opting for the iPhone XS Max instead. They are two sizes of the same product.

Regardless, it’s better for Apple if the iPhone XS Max cannibalizes sales of the iPhone XS.

We have definitely reached peak stupidity in Apple coverage.
 

roland.g

macrumors 604
Apr 11, 2005
6,716
1,802
No surprises. I have the X and don't see a reason to upgrade. More likely to upgrade my series 3 to 4 though.
I have an X and did not see the point in going to XS. I had a 6 Plus, 6S Plus, and 7 Plus and though the X was a size downgrade and the new Max represents approximately the same physical size as my previous Plus phones, I am actually happy with the smaller size. Even though I am on a Next every year upgrade and could get one I don’t intend to. A Series 4 made more sense for me. Ideally I think the XR represents an optimal screen size, but I wouldn’t opt to downgrade from an X to an XR.
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The changes from X to Xs does not justify to make the purchase.
If they make a SE sized with the same feature, then it is a different story.
Is that was the XR is essentially.
 

Spizike9

macrumors regular
Nov 7, 2011
191
225
I think the XS orders would be even less if the XR was available at the same time. I’m sure some people are ordering just because they don’t want to wait another month. I’m still going to hang on to my 7+ for at least another year. If the XR was 1080 as opposed to 720 I most likely would have got it. I’m sure as far as just looking at it, it will be similar to my 7+ but I didn’t feel the need to upgrade with the 720.
 

PickUrPoison

macrumors 604
Sep 12, 2017
6,868
8,420
Sunnyvale, CA
But... according to MacRumors forum users... everyone thinks the XR is a bad phone and no one will buy it...
I think XR will outsell the XS/XS Max combined 2:1. And, the XS Max will outsell the XS. I mean if you’re already spending $1,000-1,350 why not spend the extra $100 for the bigger phone? 8 Plus outsold the 8.
 
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Soccertess

macrumors 65816
Oct 19, 2005
1,245
1,738
If Apple made Apple Watch andriod compatible, the demand would be insane. Xs - I can see people who skipped the x upgrading to it. It isn’t a must have though and lacks anything special.

Xs Max will have strong demand, given it’s size and people’s desire for bigger phones. It proves that a four inch screen isn’t the sweet spot as someone claimed ;)
 

nrvna76

macrumors 65816
Aug 4, 2010
1,066
1,075
If I did not already have the X the Xr would have been the only one I considered. Let’s hope sales are lackluster! Make them go all out next year.
 

nexu

macrumors member
Feb 24, 2017
77
125
I think the XS orders would be even less if the XR was available at the same time. I’m sure some people are ordering just because they don’t want to wait another month. I’m still going to hang on to my 7+ for at least another year. If the XR was 1080 as opposed to 720 I most likely would have got it. I’m sure as far as just looking at it, it will be similar to my 7+ but I didn’t feel the need to upgrade with the 720.
But Xr is not 720
 

Jsameds

Suspended
Apr 22, 2008
3,525
7,987
Don’t know why everyone using an X was waiting for something to upgrade to unless you’re after something bigger or something to boast about.

With a six year support plan it’s quite clear Apple are playing the long game here.

Minor improvements, shifting product line. There is something for everyone, except those with small hands...
 
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