You're right in that the traditional auto business is tough; low margin & high capex. However the key is the autonomy part, that's where it gets interesting.
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Kuo: Development of Apple Car Has 'Lost All Visibility'
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You're right in that the traditional auto business is tough; low margin & high capex. However the key is the autonomy part, that's where it gets interesting.
It's a three way race. Which will win?
AirPower? Apple Car? An accurate Blood Glucose Reader on an Apple Watch?
AirPower? Apple Car? An accurate Blood Glucose Reader on an Apple Watch?
Honestly, it sounds like the whole thing shifted years ago to an R&D effort on a ton of QOL technologies to put into an EV *when the technology they’re based on can actually be manufactured at scale*. I don’t think the production capability exists today to *mass* manufacture some of the things they’ve patented.
Autonomous vehicles at level 5 (drive autonomously on all roads in any conditions) are a huge technological challenge. Without doubt, the tech will be there at some point, maybe decades from now. However, I think regulation will be an even bigger problem.
I am not talking about liability or whether we'll allow autonomous vehicles. That discussion is going on right now, but it is small noise compared to the big, hairy, ugly problem we have with our traffic legislation and environment. In most—if not all—jurisdictions, traffic laws are not well-defined. They talk about being careful, or using good judgement. Traffic cases are in court often because the laws need interpreting.
Traffic arrangements may make it impossible to drive without violating some rules. A brief drive on and within the Périphérique in Paris may help illustrating the problem. Or, if that feels too easy, try Mumbai. If you do not like the climate, try some Northern European city with a lot of bicycles and pedestrians intermixed with cars. Add some rain, dark November, and some construction works.
We have been able to have bad regulation and awful traffic arrangements because humans can tolerate them and use creative solutions (= violate the rules) when needed. We expect machines to obey the rules and never be involved in any accidents. That makes true Level 5 autonomous driving extremely difficult. (Level 4 is another beast; if the geographic area and weather + traffic conditions are limited to a minimum, Level 4 is easy but globally not very useful.)
Of course, laws and traffic environment can be fixed, there are no laws of nature declining that. It is an enormous task and we have not even started talking about it.
Yes, but...
That is one of the Tesla's bets. (The other was the Supercharger network, but that did not turn out to be the winning recipe. It could have, though.) If you are the first one to provide technology for a Level 5 (or sufficiently wide-coverge Level 4) autonomous vehicle, you'll get rich. If Tesla could do it today, it could stop getting its hands dirty manufacturing cars.
However, the problem has been thoroughly researched in both academia and industry. There are a plethora of players in the field including most of the largest tech companies in the world. Billions and billions have been poured into research and development and no single player seems to have any major advantage over the others.
It is not enough to be able to provide good technology. Making money requires being able to leap ahead of the others and to be able to maintain the lead for years. Not likely to happen in the current situation.
Traditional auto business is tough. Both electrification and the Chinese are making it even tougher. Entering that market makes little sense.
I hope Apple continues on the research and development, but only to improve their in-car experience and bring platforms to the market rather than trying to compete directly in the car industry. Only if they can truly shift the market and move mountains, it doesn't really make sense for them to build their own cars.
If they take beyond 2026, might as well scrap the project because they will never be able to catch up to Tesla's autonomous functions or match their price. It might look nicer, integrate better with the Apple ecosystem and potentially be safer but that's a tough value proposition for something that will likely be much more expensive than a Model 3 or Y with worse features and charging network (you know Apple with not go with a standard connector or rely on Tesla for Supercharger network access, not in their DNA). I'm actually glad they will not try to do a me-too product but focus their efforts where they can make a change in this space if there is any. It could very well be that Tesla is already doing everything they would like to do so what's the point. Rather dominate a new dormant product category like AR/VR.
Is this just Kuo's coded way of saying "I don't have insiders with knowledge or access to Apple Car development! Please help!" LOL
Building a car from a scratch to first delivery is at least 10 years of hard work. We have not seen a single bolt, rendering or anything that could remotely suggest that Apple is building a vehicle or even prototyping one. And even if they do, Tesla is so far ahead, that by the time Apple car hits the streets, it would be absolutely obsolete in terms and engineering, performance and capabilities. It is a lost train. Forget about it, and move forward.
I don't believe a Car was ever being developed but your point doesn't prove it. They could have plenty of things behind closed doors already done if it was a real project.
But again, I don't think an actual car was ever the plan. Technology for a car however yes, advanced CarPlay. Perhaps even what they showed off last year that was coming soon.
I can understand that perspective, but I think that software > hardware, and I think Apple knows and embraces this.
While they have always had these moments of introduction to some yet-to-be-mainstreamed technology (all-in-one-computer, iPod, iPhone, etc..) the rest of the time what people actually fall in love with is the software. If Apple had made the iPhone and it was a garbage software experience, it would have flopped. When Apple released their iMac G3, if the MacOs wasn't amazing it wouldn't be the hit that it was. People might get attracted to Apple with the flashy hardware but people stick around and fall in love with the software. That is why I said and still believe that they are a software company. The hardware is the means by which they deliver their software.
Maybe people will disagree, but if I have amazing software and really bad hardware I get frustrated and want different hardware so I can enjoy the software without interruption. If I have amazing hardware and bad software, I could care less about the entire thing. Said a different way, I have never fallen in love with hardware while ignoring the software, because hardware (unless you are an engineer) is nothing without it. However, I have often fallen in love with the software and almost forgot about the hardware entirely.
The beauty of the Apple model is that it is able to sell small gadgets at premium prices. Small items that fit into small cardboard boxes that are able to be shipped easily via all carriers.
Millions of these small premium gadgets could be packed into shipping containers and sold with amazing margins all around the world. The car has zero of these qualities. The car sounds more like self-inflicted pain and suffering for Apple compared to watches, phones, headphones, and laptops.
Millions of these small premium gadgets could be packed into shipping containers and sold with amazing margins all around the world. The car has zero of these qualities. The car sounds more like self-inflicted pain and suffering for Apple compared to watches, phones, headphones, and laptops.
It will just be a virtual AppleCar, so it cannot be released until the Vision Pro goes on sale …
Apple's work on the Apple Car has "lost all visibility" at the current time, according to Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo. He says that if Apple does not adopt some kind of acquisition strategy to make inroads in the automotive market, it is unlikely that the Apple Car will be able to go into mass production "within the next years."
It is true that there have been few Apple Car rumors in 2023, giving us little insight into what Apple is up to at the current time. One recurring theme in Apple Car development has been reports of internal strife over the direction of the project and the ultimate goal of the Apple Car.
Prior rumors suggested that Apple would begin testing on the Apple Car in 2025, with Apple aiming to provide a vehicle to consumers in 2026, but now that we are closing in on 2024, it seems unlikely that Apple will make that timeline with how little we've heard about work on the Apple Car this year.
Apple seems to be putting a lot of focus on the Vision Pro headset at the current time, and the last Apple Car update came in March 2023. At that time, Economic Daily News suggested that Apple had made improvements to the self-driving capabilities of the Apple Car and was expanding its testing, but there's been no word since then.
Late last year, Bloomberg's Mark Gurman said that Apple had significantly scaled back its Apple Car project and no longer had plans to release a fully autonomous vehicle. Apple was aiming to design a car without a steering wheel or pedals, but decided that such a plan is not feasible. Instead, the car will allegedly have guided driving features that work on highways, but will not operate on its own at all times.
Apple has not yet established a manufacturing partner for the Apple Car, so Kuo's suggestion that we may not see any sign of an Apple Car in the next few years without major changes makes sense.
Article Link: Kuo: Development of Apple Car Has 'Lost All Visibility'
No, it was way more than that. They had full fledged autonomous prototypes at one point.
Thing is, a majority of Americans still view EVs as a luxury. They’re not mainstream yet. Most people will still choose a gas powered car or in a few cases a hybrid. What Apple needs is a fully deployed market segment that they can enter and refine. That means charging infrastructure nation wide and a population willing to consider an EV as a FIRST choice, not a luxury for rich people. When that happens Apple (should they still be interested in making an EV) will be properly positioned to launch a “revolutionary” Apple car. But I’d say that’s at least a decade away.
A little two seater like the SmartCar could make it work. They could display them in existing stores and ship tons of them all over the world in containers.
But there are so many liabilities. So many regulations. Tesla, Ford, and GM make a fraction of what Apple does with mountains of liabilities. I do not think it's worth it for Apple. They have a winning strategy and their play for services is a gold mine that is just scratching the surface of where it will go. It's cool and all, but I think Apple should forget about the car and stick with what works.