Kuo: M3 Chip Still Months Away, Entering Mass Production in Second Half of 2023

[MacRumors]

Apple's next-generation M3 chip will enter mass production in the second half of 2023, according to info shared today by analyst Ming-Chi Kuo.

In a tweet, Kuo said M3 chip production will begin "slightly ahead" of the M3 Pro and M3 Max. Apple should use the M3 chip for future models of the 13-inch MacBook Air, 13-inch MacBook Pro, 24-inch iMac, and Mac mini, while the higher-end M3 Pro and M3 Max chips are destined for the next 14-inch and 16-inch MacBook Pro models, which Bloomberg's Mark Gurman expects to be released in the first half of 2024.

The M3 chip is expected to be manufactured based on Apple chipmaking partner TSMC's latest 3nm process, compared to 5nm for the M2 chip. As a 3nm chip, the M3 should offer significant performance and power efficiency improvements.

As for the long-rumored 15-inch MacBook Air, Kuo said the laptop will be equipped with the M2 chip. Back in June 2022, Kuo predicted that the 15-inch model would also be available with the M2 Pro chip, but he no longer expects this.

The key takeaway from Kuo's latest information is that the first Macs with the M3 chip are likely still months away from launching. This makes sense given that the next Mac Pro desktop tower is rumored to feature the M2 Ultra chip, and it is likely that Apple would finish its rollout of the M2 series of chips before announcing the M3 chip.

Article Link: Kuo: M3 Chip Still Months Away, Entering Mass Production in Second Half of 2023

 

[MayaUser]

but but but others here said that M3 is already in mass production since late Dec/Jan

 

[madmin]

I'm tired of Kuo and his flip flopping

 

[TheYayAreaLiving 🎗️]

What if the M3 chip is a step backward to a powerful, supercharged M2 chip?

 

[madmin]

What if the M3 chip is a step backward to a powerful, supercharged M2 chip?

Two steps forward and one step back ?
Figures

 

[nikhsub1]

So it's months away but they started production in December of 2022? Okay...

 

[sockdoggy]

Seems like they are finally going to get Pro lineup ahead of consumer lineup similar to iPad Air and iPad Pro. Those MacBook Air's will be on M2's for a while as MacBook Pro's get on M3.

 

[RedTheReader]

You know, on the one hand this isn't important because the current line is pretty good. On the other hand, if they maintain this speed, you've got to keep in mind that the competition will eventually catch up—or rather, get close enough—in energy consumption, to the point that people might start preferring x86 backwards compatibility over AS advantages.

 

[nikhsub1]

What if the M3 chip is a step backward to a powerful, supercharged M2 chip?

Sometimes that happens - a new die shrink can be problematic, although I doubt that Apple would release it if it were. I mean, maybe that is exactly what happened with the first bins that rumored to start in December of last year... and maybe that is why they are delayed until later this year?

 

[macsplusmacs]

So Mac Pro in Nov?

 

[holodoctor1]

As a 3nm chip, the M3 should offer significant performance and power efficiency improvements.

You're killing me macrumors 😄. On the one hand, I desperately want the 15 inch air, but on the other maybe I should wait a few months (or year?) for the air with the M3... If it really is a significant improvement, then it's a tough call 😟

 

[JPack]

Sometimes that happens - a new die shrink can be problematic, although I doubt that Apple would release it if it were. I mean, maybe that is exactly what happened with the first bins that rumored to start in December of last year... and maybe that is why they are delayed until later this year?

This is why M3 is likely to be based on A16 to mitigate risk.

Many people believe M3 is based on A17, but in all likelihood Apple won’t use a new core with a new process.

 

[cdsapplefan]

Yeah don’t expect M3 series until March of 2024, but you will get 3nm technology huge performance boost and major power efficiency via A17 Chip in the iPhone 15 pro. Apple still have to release the Mac Pro M2 Ultra before any M3 Apple computer is announced

 

[tdar]

You know what is great about Apple rumors? You can find someone who says whatever you want. I just finished reading a article on Appleinsider that says exactly the opposite.

 

[RalfTheDog]

You're killing me macrumors 😄. On the one hand, I desperately want the 15 inch air, but on the other maybe I should wait a few months (or year?) for the air with the M3... If it really is a significant improvement, then it's a tough call 😟

I would say, go with the one on the market today. Apple has been getting better about their production quality of new products. That said, the current 15 air has had enough time on the product line to iron out the bugs. (Mixed metaphor intentional.)

 

[RalfTheDog]

You know what is great about Apple rumors? You can find someone who says whatever you want. I just finished reading a article on Appleinsider that says exactly the opposite.

Can someone please start a Mac rumor that I just won the lottery?

 

[CWallace]

but but but others here said that M3 is already in mass production since late Dec/Jan

So it's months away but they started production in December of 2022? Okay...

We need to remember that the sources for Kuo and Ross Young are in the supply chain and those sources likely know nothing more than "this thing started production today" with no idea of where it actually is going or why it started production or even how long the production run was going to be. So Kuo and Young take these rumors and extrapolate them to Apple products they expect to be produced.

I could easily see the rumors of M3 production starting in December 2022 as being EVT (Engineering Verification Test) runs to work out package production (so SoC plus RAM). They could have even been A17 EVT and the source thought it was M3 because it was 3nm.



I believe that the A17 will soak up the vast majority of TSMC's 3nm production through Spring and Summer and therefore I don't expect to see serious M3 production until this Fall and therefore could see M3 not formally appearing in product until a Spring 2024 Mac event with the 13" Air (and maybe a 15" refresh) and the 24" iMac.

 

[munpip214]

I think part of the confusion is what mass production really means to these insiders. Based on the timeline I would be surprised if that Apple had a production ready product last year. TSMC had pushed out 3nm and apple was just doing M2. That said, Apple was most definitely starting their first stepping of 3nm products. This means that yes, TSMC was producing what might have been deemed as “mass” to improve on yield and testing for Apple. After a few quarters of this, Apple would had their final design completed and TSMC would had fine tuned their process. And that puts us at the second half of this year.

 

[jz0309]

but but but others here said that M3 is already in mass production since late Dec/Jan

Welcome to MacRUMORS
The 3nm process went into mass production around that Ti e but we do not know which product Apple is actually running…

 

[CWallace]

This is why M3 is likely to be based on A16 to mitigate risk. Many people believe M3 is based on A17, but in all likelihood Apple won’t use a new core with a new process.

I expect the real risk with A17 is 3nm, not the cores.

So Apple will use the massive volume of A17 to de-risk the 3nm production process and then once the iPhone production starts to ramp down towards the end of 2023, TSMC will have the fab capacity to start ramping M3 on 3nm and we will see the first M3 Macs arrive in 1Q 2024.

 

[75Batt]

So it's months away but they started production in December of 2022? Okay...

So you just pick and chose what rumours you want ti believe even if they’re rediculous

 

[coffeemilktea]

I gotta say, these "the M3 chip totally started production, pinky swear, oh no wait, I meant it's starting production months from now" rumors are still more exciting than hearing about the iPhone 15's maybe-haptic-maybe-not volume buttons.

 

[Lounge vibes 05]

Wonder if it’ll go like this…
October 2023: M3 iMac and 13 MacBook Pro (both starting at $1299 and both decently low volume) are introduced.
March 2024: M3 iPad Pro and M3pro and max MBPs (slightly more volume)are introduced.
June 2024: M3 Airs and Minis (the cheapest and therefore much higher volume) are introduced.

 

[orbital~debris]

That said, the current 15 air

Eh?! / say what?

 

[Bug-Creator]

Many people believe M3 is based on A17, but in all likelihood Apple won’t use a new core with a new process.

I'm pretty sure that wouldn't be the 1st time.

Also shrinking a design to new process is a lot of work, might as well update them core.

Even more if these new core already exist on the new process.


-> M3 will either be all everything A17 (only more) or it will be nothing A17 (read A16 cores in 5nm aka M2.01)
Or neither will be 3nm.....