Kuo: M3 Chip Still Months Away, Entering Mass Production in Second Half of 2023

[saintmac]

Ok so it looks like they are sticking to their rythm of Mn chips every 18 months after all.
I never bought the 15" air M3 rumor

So my guess is:
- 15" air M2 at WWDC
- Mac studio M2Max / Ultra & Mac Pro M2 Ultra at WWDC ?
- 13" and 15" air M3, mac mini M3 in the fall (maybe they'll finally get rid of that 13" MBP)
- 14"/16" MBP M3 Pro / Max in spring 2024 or at WWDC 2024
- Mac Studio M3Max/Ultra and maybe Mac Pro M3Extreme (=2Ultra) in the fall 2024

I'm still unsure about the 15" macbook air though. Will it be like the iPad3 that was replaced by the iPad 4 just 6 months later ?

 

[vegetassj4]

but but but others here said that M3 is already in mass production since late Dec/Jan

Apple has entered the quantum computing market. It's Shroedinger's M3, it is both under mass production and not at the same time.

 

[UltimaKilo]

So we could have November launches again this year... via press release. Whatever.

 

[Cristim74]

Nobody's delaying anything. We just got M2 Pro this spring. How soon do you think they will bring M3 Pro? Earliest Spring next year, maybe autumn next year. Mx lifecycle is usually 18 months, but never shorter than 12 months. So don't expect any M3 Pro until earliest spring 2024. We'll probably get standard M3 this autumn (October/November).

 

[MayaUser]

Apple has entered the quantum computing market. It's Shroedinger's M3, it is both under mass production and not at the same time.

Apple has entered in the stratosphere

 

[t0rqx]

but but but others here said that M3 is already in mass production since late Dec/Jan

This is damage control. They know if they not address this report people are not buying the M2 and wait for M3.

 

[Realityck]

but but but others here said that M3 is already in mass production since late Dec/Jan

You mean this news

TSMC to hold 3nm process mass production launch ceremony on Dec. 29 - Focus Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC), the world's largest contract chipmaker, on Saturday announced it will hold a ceremony on Dec. 29 to celebrate the start of mass production using its 3 nanometer process and plans for further expansion of the technology in southern Taiwan.

focustaiwan.tw

That does not specially say its for a M3, its more likely concerns A17 which is suppose to be the first sOC that Apple/TMSC makes using 3NM for iPhone 15 Pro's.

 

[Lounge vibes 05]

but but but others here said that M3 is already in mass production since late Dec/Jan

3NM, not M3.
Big difference.
Also, according to recent rumors, not only will the iPhone get the A17 but the iPad mini might as well, and both of those are high-volume products.
The M3 will have to compete with that, and I think it’s pretty clear which chip Apple wants out first.
It’s the iPhone… it’s always the iPhone.
the iPhone is literally their most important product, it got 7NM and 5NM before anything else and it’s very likely for that to repeat.

 

[Realityck]

This is damage control. They know if they not address this report people are not buying the M2 and wait for M3.

What damage control if people stop trying to make their own facts everything would be eventually revealed.

 

[chucker23n1]

You know, on the one hand this isn't important because the current line is pretty good. On the other hand, if they maintain this speed, you've got to keep in mind that the competition will eventually catch up—or rather, get close enough—in energy consumption, to the point that people might start preferring x86 backwards compatibility over AS advantages.

Frequency of releases doesn't really say anything about the iterative performance improvements, though.

We don't know if an M3 would be A16-derived or A17-derived (sooner or later, Apple will want to skip a generation, and late 2023 suggests this might be the time), which process node it uses, and whether there are design improvements that the A series doesn't yet have (the M1 had features the A14 lacked).

As for energy consumption, M2 is still well ahead of Raptor Lake.

 

[JPack]

but but but others here said that M3 is already in mass production since late Dec/Jan

People will believe what they want to believe. We knew months ago from credible sources Apple would use N3E, which doesn’t start volume until H2’23. Plus, there was news all around that N3B was poor in yield and didn’t offer much better than N4. Customers like Intel or MediaTek might be ok with 3B but not Apple.

Apple to use TSMC's next 3-nm chip tech in iPhones, Macs next year

Move will mark industry's first adoption of updated production technology

asia.nikkei.com

 

[ThisBougieLife]

I still don’t think 15” Air with M2, followed a few months later by 13” Air with M3 is likely.

 

[JosephAW]

Maybe it's time to switch to a new chip platform... oh wait... never mind.

 

[SpotOnT]

Seems like they are finally going to get Pro lineup ahead of consumer lineup similar to iPad Air and iPad Pro. Those MacBook Air's will be on M2's for a while as MacBook Pro's get on M3.

That is kind of what I expect too. Apple already switched the to having the iPhone Pro being one chip generation ahead of the standard iPhone variant. My suspicion is they are trying to release a Mac Pro and maybe Mac Studio on M3. Then later in the year update the non-pro Mac to M3.

I mean it is either that or all those rumors of M3 production starting in Jan were just wrong.

 

[macintologist]

M1 is still an incredible processor. My 2020 M1 Mac Mini is rocking it.

 

[Boil]

I'm tired of Kuo and his flip flopping

Why you gotta get down on a person because of their choice of footwear...?

Two steps forward and one step back ?

Something something, Paula Abdul...?

So it's months away but they started production in December of 2022? Okay...

Kuo is probably talking about M3 on N3E, the December 2022 start would be ASi Mac Pro chips on the N3B process...

Can someone please start a Mac rumor that I just won the lottery?

I heard a rumor that @RalfTheDog won the lottery and gifted me a substantial portion of said winnings...! ;^p

I could easily see the rumors of M3 production starting in December 2022 as being EVT (Engineering Verification Test) runs to work out package production (so SoC plus RAM). They could have even been A17 EVT and the source thought it was M3 because it was 3nm.

Doubtful "mass production" of 45K wafers/month is for engineering samples...

I believe that the A17 will soak up the vast majority of TSMC's 3nm production through Spring and Summer and therefore I don't expect to see serious M3 production until this Fall and therefore could see M3 not formally appearing in product until a Spring 2024 Mac event with the 13" Air (and maybe a 15" refresh) and the 24" iMac.

That would be the N3E process wafers...

People will believe what they want to believe. We knew months ago from credible sources Apple would use N3E, which doesn’t start volume until H2’23. Plus, there was news all around that N3B was poor in yield and didn’t offer much better than N4. Customers like Intel or MediaTek might be ok with 3B but not Apple.

It has been reported that Intel bailed on their 3nm allotment, with Apple stepping in to pick up said production...

That is kind of what I expect too. Apple already switched the to having the iPhone Pro being one chip generation ahead of the standard iPhone variant. My suspicion is they are trying to release a Mac Pro and maybe Mac Studio on M3. Then later in the year update the non-pro Mac to M3.

M3 Ultra & M3 Extreme Mac Pros at WWDC 2023...

Everything else later in the year & early 2024...

 

[ChrisA]

So it's months away but they started production in December of 2022? Okay...

That is reasonable. It takes a long time to do the design. I bet the engineers at Apple are working on an M4 right now and talking about features to put into an M5.

When a design is done, they do low volume manufacturing and test the new chip. thn after testing for months, they turn on the mass production and build up a big supply of them until they have enough that they can ship hundreds of thousands of chips to Foxcon's assembly plants. It could take a year from end or design to the point where they are making computers. Then they have to make hundreds of thousands of computers and fill up that pipeline before they can appear in stores.

So As I said, I'd bet the M4 is in design now and the M5 is the planning stage.

 

[sw1tcher]

This is why M3 is likely to be based on A16 to mitigate risk.

Many people believe M3 is based on A17, but in all likelihood Apple won’t use a new core with a new process.

To mitigate the M3GAN risk? 😨

M3GAN uses an A17 Bionic Fusion Chip.

 

[Realityck]

M3 Ultra & M3 Extreme Mac Pros at WWDC 2023... Everything else later in the year & early 2024.

Only in your wildest fantasies.

 

[jimbobb24]

I need an M3 Air to replace my current so I hope that is in the lineup soon.

 

[currentinterest]

We will see if this is the case. It was Kuo who said the newly redesigned 13 inch MacBook Air would launch with the M1 not the M2. He was wrong about that.

Kuo: 2022 MacBook Air to Feature M1 Chip, More Color Options and All-New Design

Following today's event that saw the introduction of the Mac Studio, respected Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo has provided some detail on the MacBook...

www.macrumors.com

 

[steve123]

I suggest we should step back and look at a larger picture. Apple made a major change in 2022 when they released the iPhone 14 Pro Max. The iPhone 14 Pro Max was the first phone released with the new A16. The iPhone 14 was released with the A15. This change accomplished two things. First, the change further differentiates the Pro Max from the base model phone. Second, the change affected a reorganization of their supply chain to reduce the volume of A16 chips required to meet demand at launch.

By making this change, Apple has created capacity for other products using the most advanced node. If we extrapolate we will likely see both A17 and M3 Pro Max Ultra appear at the same time, or at least within the same quarter, because Apple has created the capacity to meet the demand for A17 Pro Max phones and M3 Pro Max Ultra macs at the time they launch.

So, M3 Pro Max chips are coming at the same time as A17. Because mac volumes are much less than phone volumes, they will also likely be able to meet M3 base demand as well. So, I believe everything is still looking good for A17, M3 and M3 Pro Max Ultra shipping in September. We should still expect M3 to be announced at WWDC and the unveiling of the Mac Pro.

 

[LeeW]

e need to remember that the sources for Kuo and Ross Young are in the supply chain and those sources likely know nothing more than "this thing started production today" with no idea of where it actually is going or why it started production or even how long the production run was going to be. So Kuo and Young take these rumors and extrapolate them to Apple products they expect to be produced.

Someone gets it at least.

 

[IG88]

You mean this news

TSMC to hold 3nm process mass production launch ceremony on Dec. 29 - Focus Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC), the world's largest contract chipmaker, on Saturday announced it will hold a ceremony on Dec. 29 to celebrate the start of mass production using its 3 nanometer process and plans for further expansion of the technology in southern Taiwan.

focustaiwan.tw

That does not specially say its for a M3, its more likely concerns A17 which is suppose to be the first sOC that Apple/TMSC makes using 3NM for iPhone 15 Pro's.

What is your take on what TSMC was beginning the mass production of then?
Are you saying this was 3nm A-series A17 mass production starting Dec 2022?

 

[IG88]

We will see if this is the case. It was Kuo who said the newly redesigned 13 inch MacBook Air would launch with the M1 not the M2. He was wrong about that.

Kuo: 2022 MacBook Air to Feature M1 Chip, More Color Options and All-New Design

Following today's event that saw the introduction of the Mac Studio, respected Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo has provided some detail on the MacBook...

www.macrumors.com

Good point. IDK, I could see this going either way. M2 15" Air, even though it makes no sense to me, might make sense to Apple, if 3nm yields are not great right now.

Also, they may have a backlog of M2 inventory they want to use up.