Kuo: MacBook Shipment Growth to Drive Market Adoption of Mini-LED Technology

[MacRumors]

Apple's use of mini-LED panels in its forthcoming MacBook lineups will catalyze supplier investment and push the entire industry toward adoption of the display technology, according to analyst Ming-Chi Kuo.

Like the 12.9-inch iPad Pro, Apple's upcoming redesigned 14-inch and 16-inch MacBook Pros are expected to feature mini-LED displays. In his latest investor note, seen by MacRumors, Kuo says this will stoke strategic supplier investment in the technology, which will allow Apple to diversify supply risk and bring down production costs.

We believe that MacBooks, not iPads, mainly drive Mini LED panel shipments. MacBook shipments have not grown much in the past few years. However, we expect MacBook shipments to grow significantly by 20% YoY, or more in 2021 and 2022, due to the adoption of Mini LED panels, Apple Silicon, and all-new designs.

The redesigned 14 and 16-inch MacBook Pro models due this year are expected to feature next-generation Apple silicon chips, the removal of the Touch Bar, the return of the MagSafe magnetic power cable, and an overall new design with an HDMI port and SD card slot.

Kuo believes that Apple is already "actively looking for second suppliers of key Mini LED components," and if its mini-LED notebooks receive positive feedback, other notebook makers and their suppliers will inevitably be pushed towards adoption of the technology.

Apple is also developing a thinner and lighter version of the MacBook Air that will have thinner bezels than the current model. Rumors suggest it will have a 13-inch mini-LED display, which will be an upgrade over the existing MacBook Air's display.

In a previous investor note, Kuo said the 2022 MacBook Air models will be available in "several color options," likely similar to the colors of the 24-inch iMac.

Looking ahead to 2023, Kuo singles out Apple's work on micro-LED technology as the next major display market disruptor.

Though the names are similar, there are notable differences between micro-LED and mini-LED displays. Mini-LED is the same as LED backlighting that's used today but with many more LEDs for more dimming zones, while micro-LED is similar to OLED with self-emissive pixels that can each be independently lit.

Apple is working on micro-LED technology as well, but mini-LED will come first in iPads and Macs because micro-LED technology is so expensive right now.

We predict that the production cost of Micro LED will improve significantly starting in 2023–2024, so it will likely be a market focus from 2023 onwards. We believe Apple is developing Micro LED technology, but the production schedule is not yet confirmed.

Apple is planning to hold multiple events this fall to launch new iPhones, Apple Watch models, updated AirPods, a redesigned iPad mini, and redesigned mini-LED MacBook Pros, according to Bloomberg journalist Mark Gurman.

Article Link: Kuo: MacBook Shipment Growth to Drive Market Adoption of Mini-LED Technology

 

[Lukomaldini]

14inch Macbook Pro M1X and Mini-LED = King of Laptops.

 

[chasing.stoke]

Shut up and take my money

 

[bbzzz]

"thinner and lighter version of the MacBook Air"

stop making it thinner, make it useful, put a decent battery in and some ports. Its no longer thin if you have to lug a power supply and port expanders/adaptors

 

[Serban55]

Of course the macs will drive the mini led since the only 2 ipads will get mini-led..while the macs...probably all macbook air/pro and also in couple of years the imacs
The macs will begin to make a lot more profit than the ipad

 

[Serban55]

"thinner and lighter version of the MacBook Air"

stop making it thinner, make it useful, put a decent battery in and some ports. Its no longer thin if you have to lug a power supply and port expanders/adaptors

battery? have you seen the M1 MBA? come on...they are cold to the touch, at least 10 hours of heavy battery usage
So if they can make it thinner with the more less heating M2..why not....its the Macbook air,not the pro so it makes sense
But i agree with you on the ports...i think 4 ports are enough if they place (including the headphone jack)

 

[LFC2020]

battery? have you seen the M1 MBA? come on...they are cold to the touch, at least 10 hours of heavy battery usage
So if they can make it thinner with the more less heating M2..why not....its the Macbook air,not the pro so it makes sense
But i agree with you on the ports...i think 4 ports are enough if they place (including the headphone jack)

Agree, haven't charged my M1 pro since installing the latest macOS 12 public beta, still have 36% left, these M series chips are a beast when it comes to battery life.

 

[Freida]

All I need for all these is new Apple Cinema Display that is reasonably priced.

 

[smirking]

The not yet released Micro-LED is better than also not yet released Mini-LED? How long before we see the "Waiting on 2023-24 MBP" thread?

 

[waquzy]

Of course it will, Apple has been setting standards for over a decade

 

[arobert3434]

Ugh. If mini-bLEeD is coming to Macbooks it's going to be the start of another multi-year holdout for me like with the butterfly keyboards. I just hope they release a 16" M-something capable of more than one external monitor and eGPU use before the transition.

 

[Serban55]

The not yet released Micro-LED is better than also not yet released Mini-LED? How long before we see the "Waiting on 2023-24 MBP" thread?

micro-Led is at least 5-6 years away

 

[Serban55]

Ugh. If mini-bLEeD is coming to Macbooks it's going to be the start of another multi-year holdout for me like with the butterfly keyboards. I just hope they release a 16" M-something capable of more than one external monitor and eGPU use before the transition.

buy the current Intel 16" if you want eGpu
The M1x 16" will have support for multiple external monitors

 

[michaelsviews]

Also put the trackpad back the way it was. Not this over sized garbage.

 

[Serban55]

Also put the trackpad back the way it was. Not this over sized garbage.

people that already used this big trackpad cannot go back to the tiny area. And the rest of the industry started to make them bigger as well
So , no, the trackpad is a masterpiece the way it is

 

[Shirasaki]

So, if they replace 13.3” with 14”, what would be the price of baseline MacBook Pro? $1299 or $1699? MiniLED display ain’t cheap, and I doubt removing Touch Bar is enough to “recoup” cost of MiniLED.

Adaptation doesn’t mean much imo, especially for a machine that is designed for higher end users.

 

[jonnysods]

I had a 15" until it was stolen earlier this year, got an M1 MBA to tide me over so I could get a 16" when it comes out. I've gotten used to the size and it hasn't been bad, but I really need ports on both sides, and support for more than 1 monitor. If they release a 14", and its decent compared to the 16", that will pose an interesting conundrum for me!

I'm excited that this may only be 1-2 months out from now.

 

[ghanwani]

I hope this addresses headaches I was getting with the M1 MBA/MBP.

 

[sunny5]

What about 27 inch iMac?

 

[profcutter]

I worry about apple shifting a “pro” machine (whatever that means these days) to miniLED. Perhaps it will be an option, but standard backlighting will still be available, or perhaps there will be a software switch to make it function like a standard LED backlit display. I can’t imagine color grading or pixel peeping on a display that haloes around bright pinpoints, no matter how minor that haloing is.

 

[Netvine]

Why is a mini-led better than existing oled panels already available in PC Laptops? Aside from Brightness and Burn in. Isnt LG’s OLED the best these days?

 

[sunny5]

Why is a mini-led better than existing oled panels already available in PC Laptops? Aside from Brightness and Burn in. Isnt LG’s OLED the best these days?

Most or all professional monitors are LCD/LED, not OLED.

OLED is not reliable because of burn in and it's expensive.

 

[Duane Martin]

I worry about apple shifting a “pro” machine (whatever that means these days) to miniLED. Perhaps it will be an option, but standard backlighting will still be available, or perhaps there will be a software switch to make it function like a standard LED backlit display. I can’t imagine color grading or pixel peeping on a display that haloes around bright pinpoints, no matter how minor that haloing is.

I assume you are referring to blooming and I believe you are confused. Blooming is a result of the zone backlighting of current LED technology where the brightness of one zone can bleed over to the other. The smaller the zones, as in miniLED, the less noticeable blooming is, so if you dislike blooming then you want miniLED over standard LED. Most consumer LEDs cannot even get close to black so it might appear there is less blooming but, in fact, the entire screen is blooming.

OLED and microLED do not demonstrate blooming to the same degree because each pixel is independently activated. That said OLED has technical disadvantages (not as bright, blue decays faster than red and green, potential for burn-in) and microLED will likely have its own challenges; that’s technology for you. Having seen demos of microLED as large as a movie screen I am looking forward to that technology.

Edited: corrected widely inaccurate autocorrects

 

[Johnny907]

Why is everyone hanging their hat on Mini-LED: a lame stopgap between LCD and OLED? Mini-LED presents a small improvement in FALD saturation and response compared to older LED backlighting tech. That's it. If they want to throw it in as an incremental improvement over previous gens then sure, go for it, but treating it like it is a reason to upgrade all by itself is a hilarious bit of PR bait that way too many people are biting down on.

 

[Johnny907]

I assume you are referring to blooming and I believe you are confused. Blooming is a result of the zone backlighting of current LED technology where the brightness of one zone can bleed over to the other. The smaller the zones, as in miniLED, the less noticeable blooming is, so if you dislike blooming then you want miniLED over standard LED. Most consumer LEDs cannot even get close to black so it might appear there is less blooming but, in fact, the entire screen is blooming.

OLED and microLED do not demonstrate blooming to the same degree because each pixel is independently activated. That said OLED has technical disadvantages (not as bright, blue decays faster than red and green, potential for burn-in) and microLED will likely have its own challenges; that’s technology for you. Having seen demos of microLED as large as a movie screen I am looking forward to that technology.

Edited: corrected widely inaccurate autocorrects

Blooming is an issue with all FALD based solutions, including Mini-LED. Mini-LED just improves it slightly over previous iterations, but don't fool yourself into thinking this is a massive improvement because it isn't.