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Today, the same will need to be true for ARM to replace x64, and do so across the board, including beating a 32 core Threadripper 3970X.

Intel and AMD are already relying on moaaaar cooorrrreeeesss! to distinguish their higher end chips (which relies heavily on app and OS support) - ARM is good at more cores, with 64 and 80 core chips already circulating.

I'm imagining an A-series processor with a lot of ARM cores plus specialist accelerators on the chip like they're already doing with the Neural Engine on iPad (maybe including afterburner-like technology), all supported by existing MacOS frameworks (so 'well behaved' Mac software already uses them) consuming less power than a Xeon or Threadripper (...and everything in Apple's lineup short or the Mac Pro is already thermally constrained - even the MP has quiet running as a selling point). Apple should be in a unique position to pull that off, since they control the CPU, the computer, the OS and Logic, FCPx and the ProRes codec... whereas Intel and AMD are trying to herd cats.

To be fair, they sorta tried that with the trashcan and GPU-based computing - but they'd already let the classic Mac Pro become horribly out-of-date, forcing users to change prematurely, and messed up the physical design of the trashcan to boot. This time they've got a shiny new (if over-designed and overpriced) Intel Mac Pro which should be good for 3-4 years while they transition to ARM.
 
My biggest concern is, will those new Macs be able to run old Windows applications? Even though I don't like them, I still need them. If the new Macs support it (via WINE or Crossover etc), I will be one of the first to buy one.
Why don’t you push the developers to recompile it for ARM or crosscompile it?
 
Catalina already doesn't run most Windows apps through Wine. Many 64-bit Windows apps run 32-bit installers... Even if they run on 64-bit Wine they won't install on Catalina. It may turn out to be easier to emulate 32-bit x86 on ARM than to run it on x64 Catalina, but don't quote me on that - Apple could kill OpenGL outright with the ARM MacBook launch - and that would be an even bigger threat than the one right now about eliminating 32-bit with Catalina.

As a cross-platform developer, recompiling for ARM is piece of cake. What I worry the most is if one day I wake up in the morning and OpenGL is gone for good. I won't be able to sleep that night.
 
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if we do get a refresh for the 16” MacBook Pro, how long would we see it lasting with a mini LED display
 
How about neither? I'd expect the first MacBooks with custom ARM processors to be just that: MacBooks. Not MacBook Pro and not MacBook Air, just MacBook. The first ARM MacBook should be the realization of the dream that the 12" Macbook failed to achieve (because Intel's ultra low power chips weren't fast enough or cheap enough). ARM on Mac will have to prove itself before it replaces Intel in the Pro or Air.
Good point. Probably running iPadOS too.
 
If MBP become ARM, that would be disaster for some software developments, especially those that needs bootcamp....

Why disaster? Your existing Mac will continue to run Bootcamp indefinitely...

People seem utterly incapable of understanding that when Apple changes something, all they change is FUTURE products not existing products!
Your old mac will still work, just like today. Same as your phone continues to work even if the iOS updates end, or your aWatch Series 1 will still work even when watchOS switches to full 64-bit.
 
Good point. Probably running iPadOS too.

Nope. Running macOS. Because the first ARM MacBooks (if they exist) will be for developers. Perhaps at first only for developers (e.g. only sold thru a web portal that only paid developers can access, one per). Perhaps with a discount price for the developers who port the first 100k Mac apps to the processor.

Then they will be made available to regular customers only after lots of compatible (fat?, universal?) apps are already in the Mac App Store.
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Why disaster? Your existing Mac will continue to run Bootcamp indefinitely...

People seem utterly incapable of understanding that when Apple changes something, all they change is FUTURE products not existing products!
Your old mac will still work, just like today. Same as your phone continues to work even if the iOS updates end, or your aWatch Series 1 will still work even when watchOS switches to full 64-bit.

Furthermore, if a lot of people trade up from Intel MacBooks to new ones, then lots of "pre-owned" x86 Macs will enter the used market for those people who absolutely need to run bootcamp or a native x86 VM.
 
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You said Intel has the best performance out there. You do know AMD massively out performs Intel these days? And at a considerably lower cost. Both on desktop and server.

No, I didn’t because it’s just not the case, especially not in mobile processors.

 
...and I bet a lot of the effort is going into the 'reimagining' bit - the whole user interface needs to be re-designed to work well on a touch-only device, and although the iPad pro is impressively powerful for a tablet, its specs are quite limited c.f. what you'd expect from an ARM Mac. Photoshop for ARM Mac doesn't need a re-written UI.



Why? x86-on-ARM emulators have existed since the 1980s. Microsoft already has a "modern" x86-32 emulator for ARM as part of its ARM version of Windows. The only issues are legal ones which, unlike the laws of physics and mathematics, can go away if you throw money and lawyers at them. In any case, its only ever been a stop-gap, and the performance won't be special. However, 15 years on from the last switch, the software world has moved on and more applications should be in the ideal "tick 'ARM' and re-compile" class than ever before.



Do you mean the messy end of the PPC era - which was caused by Apple being totally dependent on Motorola and IBM producing the new processors it needed - like a mobile G5 for the PowerBook? Because the #1 point in Apple switching to ARM would be to lose their dependence on Intel, who are now causing them similar problems (not just Intel's current supply and die-shrink problems, but also their regular delays in releasing the particular power/cores/iGPU combo that Apple need).

There seems to be a bit of revisionist history going around suggesting that Apple switched to Intel to get Windows compatibility. They switched because development of G5 had dried up, whereas Intel had just dumped the whole Pentium-4 space heater dead end and started making decent processors (the Core series). It was hackers (in the good sense) who first showed how the x86 Macs could run Windows - the first x86 Macs didn't even include the EFI BIOS emulator module needed to run Windows, which the hackers had to find and install. Bootcamp and Parallels followed later.



Only if (a) Microsoft/Apple make ARM Windows available for Mac and (b) your applications work with the x86-32 emulator in ARM Windows.



By charging more. Remember, that the Xeon processors in the Mac Pro run from $1200 to $7500 "recommended customer price".

You may have missed the recent announcements of 64- and 80- core ARM chips from multiple sources. Not saying that those are drop-in options for the Mac Pro as they're designed for server workloads (although even the Intel Mac Pro depends on mooooar corrres!!! for its performance), but they show that you don't have to be Intel to develop high-performance, custom ARM chips.

Still, yeah, the Mac Pro is going to be the biggest challenge.



They need developers to start porting their programs, and an iPad Pro running MacOS might not quite cut it.



(Assuming by "platform" you mean "hardware platform" rather than "Operating system")

Linux, as with all Unix-like OSs, has always been focussed on source-code compatibility rather than binary compatibility, and the majority of the big open-source projects are already up and running on ARM Linux. Heck, I was using Unix on ARM (RiscIX) back in the early 90s - it took me an afternoon to get the then-standard HTTP server up and running, and that was due to a minor difference in Unix dialects rather than the CPU.

MS's current preferred development tools - whatever they're calling .net these days - compile to bytecode which runs in a virtual machine (Common Language Runtime). Of course, Windows has a "legacy" software problem beyond the dreams of Mac users - the 32 bit version still runs Windows 95 binaries.

Apple have spent the last several years persuading developers (via App Store rules) to use standard frameworks like Metal, Accelerate, Core-whatever etc. rather than use hardware-dependent code. Any new-ish Mac software written to Apple guidelines is likely to re-compile for ARM with little if any changes. The last big change - the move to 64-bit (which can affect data types and structures in source code and is a potentially bigger deal than switching CPU) - will have mopped up a lot of potential problems with ARM64.

Then you've got the huge increase in applications developed using web technology - HTML5/Javascript - which are genuinely truly platform independent (its not just websites/online apps - MS Visual Studio Code is mostly Javascript running on a bundled version of the Chromium browser).



What people just don't seem to get is that the vast majority of modern software is written in high-level-language, and only uses hardware-specific code where absolutely unavoidable . Modern operating systems have built-in hardware abstraction frameworks (e.g. Metal, Accelerate in Mac OS) designed to avoid that need. Even drivers can be mostly written in high-level language (as is most of the OS itself).

Supporting multiple operating systems is a major pain because it usually means a completely re-written UI and different frameworks (e.g. Metal vs. DirectX). Supporting the same/similar operating system on multiple CPU architectures is a breeze by comparison.

Once you've fixed any issues that stop your MacOS x86 application running on MacOS ARM there will usually be no need to maintain separate sets of code for x86 and ARM - you'll just build it as a universal binary (it might even be possible to use bytecode, in which case the App Store builds CPU-specific binaries). It won't be zero work - you'll need to do some testing (oh, wait, what am I saying? Its 2020 and everything is beta) on both platforms - but its nothing compared to supporting multiple OSs - even MacOS and iPadOS.

Yes, there will be exceptions - a small number of special cases where you have to use CPU specific code (maybe some game engines are still written in lovingly hand-coded assembler?) but far fewer than there were at the time of 68k-PPC or PPC-Intel - the last being a switch from big- to little-endian which can also affect high-level code). ARM is 64 bit, little endian (well, technically bi-endian) just like Intel. It will be using the same compiler front-end so there shouldn't be any C/Swift dialect quirks or different data sizes. Nothing like this is ever trivial but there's no reason for it to be much worse than the usual annual OS release or the 64 bit switch.

This is the first realistic, down to earth, dig in and get your hands dirty assessment of the transition wiithout all the paranoia. Thank you, for not making it fear based, having an agenda or axe to grind.
 
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Interesting and as a developer I wonder Apple is considering including the SVE(2) extension and possibly TME to improve performance.
 
People seem utterly incapable of understanding that when Apple changes something, all they change is FUTURE products not existing products!
In the last transition, Rosetta was required because Apple needed current Mac owners to be able to buy the new computers. Now that half of folks buying Macs have never used a Mac before anyway, the fact that current folks can’t upgrade is nowhere near as pressing.

Many potential upgraders are going for iPads, anyway :)
 
A number of my friends and neighbors from processor divisions (cpu and networking processors) have gone over in the last few years. Intel is not considered one of the hot places to work in the Valley.

That’s for sure, but Intel designers are not considered “the hot engineers,” either.
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Did Apple learn from the PowerPC fiasco? We need x86 compatibility with the 97% of the world, and that means Intel chips inside Macs! Otherwise, it is a deal breaker and switch to Windows. A shame for all.
ah, the old “keep making macs running windows or i will switch to windows” gambit.
 
Adobe has already started the transition, thats why we have Photoshop for the iPad and Illustrator soon to follow. Sure, it does not have feature parity and Adobe admits that. But, its the same code base and Adobe is adding features over time that either matches or reimagines it for the iPad. By the time Apple has a notebook ready with A-Series, Adobe should already have two of its key apps optimized for it.

Personally, I am moving away from Adobe anyway and my upgrade needs have drastically changed in the past few months. Even when these new devices come to market, I suspect I will still be using my 2015 MBP and 2017 iPad Pro and iPhone X. The necessity in having the latest and greatest has faded, well, at least for some of us. But, I am looking forward to seeing how Apple handles this one.

Adobe claims iOS version of Photoshop is full featured desktop code running on a iPad. The only reason it's lacking features is because they did not figure out how to build mobile UI for those features.

If we believe in Adobe's word then porting desktop version to a new CPU running macOS should be a pure QA job as all libraries are already optimized for ARM.
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Nope. Running macOS. Because the first ARM MacBooks (if they exist) will be for developers. Perhaps at first only for developers (e.g. only sold thru a web portal that only paid developers can access, one per). Perhaps with a discount price for the developers who port the first 100k Mac apps to the processor.

Then they will be made available to regular customers only after lots of compatible (fat?, universal?) apps are already in the Mac App Store.
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Furthermore, if a lot of people trade up from Intel MacBooks to new ones, then lots of "pre-owned" x86 Macs will enter the used market for those people who absolutely need to run bootcamp or a native x86 VM.

This did happens before as that's how I got my Apple Watch first gen super early. Apple claimed they would ship order from developer account first.
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No one is doing molecular biology on Windows on ARM. Windows on ARM is a lifestyle product. Thin and light and all-day battery life. Heavy lifting remains on x64, not to mention that ARM is not coming to the desktop.

I guess this will be the same in the Mac world? I don't see the Mac Pro, iMac Pro or the Macbook Pro 16" switching to ARM within this decade. I mean, Apple if they want can create an ARM chip that beats an AMD Threadripper but after how many years and how many billions? If the concern is that a single CPU supplier is risky then adding AMD to the mix would address the problem.

Mac had an identify crisis. Was it a lifestyle computer in the same way as iPhone? Or was it the powerhouse of choice for creative professionals? 2019 was a pivotal year and it was decisively the latter. Look at the 12" Macbook's fate and it is crystal clear. In front of them, Apple today has 3 choices: 1, stick to the guns with x64, and add AMD to the mix if more control over the supply chain is desired, 2, launch ARM Macbooks now and sell them alongside x64, or 3, wait until ARM is ready for the top tier and change everything in one go. As you can see, scenario number 2 is extremely unlikely. Now for scenario number 3, Apple being as secretive as they are, maybe there is some stuff up their sleeves that I had zero ideas about. I still doubt if they would invest their resources like this given that (1) is so much easier.

Windows on ARM is a lifestyle product because Snapdragons are not as fast as A series SoCs.

If we put a ARM CPU that's faster than a 28 core Xeon into a laptop and keep the 10 hours battery life that will be a total new "lifestyle" for everyone.

ARM is already coming to desktop in the form of eMAG workstation. Those chip are 64 cores running at 2.5GHz with under 110W TDP. This thing wipe the floor of top of the line dual way Platinum Xeons burning 420W TDP in total, let alone the single way 28 cores Mac Pro.

x86/x64 have nothing to do with performance. Right now ARM is ready for replacing the new Mac Pro. The only problem is those who already got the new Mac Pro may not be so happy with this change. The 2019 Mac Pro iwill in the same situation of those water cooled PowerMac G5.
 
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...and I bet a lot of the effort is going into the 'reimagining' bit - the whole user interface needs to be re-designed to work well on a touch-only device, and although the iPad pro is impressively powerful for a tablet, its specs are quite limited c.f. what you'd expect from an ARM Mac. Photoshop for ARM Mac doesn't need a re-written UI.
...

QFT - this is golden.

Those times when the comments on articles are way better and more informed than the article itself.

Kudos!
 
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Did Apple learn from the PowerPC fiasco? We need x86 compatibility with the 97% of the world, and that means Intel chips inside Macs! Otherwise, it is a deal breaker and switch to Windows. A shame for all.

Even AMD chips would suffice. I really hope Apple doesn't mess with the MBP lineup.
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Hmm, I was kind of expecting a new design later this year, together with MiniLED. But I can’t wait until next year. I wonder what’s the best approach here... buy a 16” now and upgrade next late summer? That would give also buffer in case something goes wrong with the production and software compatibility.

On the other hand, maybe the current models will completely lose their resale value once the redesigned models hit the market, so maybe waiting until the MiniLED would give the best value out of this gen at least. But then again, those are only rumors and this wait would already be a stretch for me. Tough call...

What do you think?

Waiting is the best bet. I'm in the same boat. I haven't had a personal laptop in years so I'm trying to wait for the right time to jump back in. MiniLED MacBook Pro 16" Intel/AMD sounds dope. Not so sure about ARM though. We'll have to wait and see what Apple is doing. Don't want to buy a 16" now and then the redesign drops right after.
 
Did Apple learn from the PowerPC fiasco? We need x86 compatibility with the 97% of the world, and that means Intel chips inside Macs! Otherwise, it is a deal breaker and switch to Windows. A shame for all.
Can you be more specific about what kind of compatibility you get with 97% of the world by having an x86 cpu? Are you just trying to run Windows natively on your Mac, or perhaps you like the convenience of moving binary executables between MacOS and Linux? It’s hard to see much else you get out of it. Linux works fine on ARM (and is typically source distributed not binary), and there is at least one Windows version that also runs on Arm. Legacy Mac Apps were already wiped off the table with Catalina, so they’re gone. So the key question - can you enumerate exactly which Mac users are benefitting from running on an Intel chip? I know I was pretty bummed to watch my 2010 17” MacBook Pro running nearly as fast as today’s laptops. If ARM gives us faster laptops again, preferably without that blow dryer sound track, that’s a plus to me.

What I remember most about the PowerPC transition is that at the time, very, very few people used Macs. And the transition allowed people to emulate Windows XP at near full speed, to act as a crutch to help them transition to MacOS for a few months. (It was useful to me after 12 years on Windows). But this is a different world, now. There’s far more people already used to a Mac, and people who are not hard core computer users seem to have a pretty easy time switching over. I haven’t needed to emulate Windows for years. In most of the companies I’ve worked for (which admittedly are tech, not business), most developers just used Macs - Windows was a pretty rare thing. All I’m saying here is the need for a fast Windows emulator to help people migrate to Mac seems a lot less than last time.
 
Way back Connectix had a Windows XP emulator that was pretty fast on my G5. Then MS bought it and killed it.
 
How about neither? I'd expect the first MacBooks with custom ARM processors to be just that: MacBooks. Not MacBook Pro and not MacBook Air, just MacBook. The first ARM MacBook should be the realization of the dream that the 12" Macbook failed to achieve (because Intel's ultra low power chips weren't fast enough or cheap enough). ARM on Mac will have to prove itself before it replaces Intel in the Pro or Air.

The 12" MacBook is a great machine. An Apple A-series chip designed for that form factor would make it an incredible machine. My fanless early 2016 12" MacBook makes the new 13" MacBook Air with a fan feel loud and heavy. I do casual video editing on it, and while it struggles with 10-bit H.265 video due to no hardware encode/decode, it can handle a surprising range of workflows. As a power user coming from a 17" MacBook Pro, I wasn't sure the 2016 12" MacBook would cut it for me performance-wise, but I was intrigued by its forward-thinking form-factor and its Skylake cpu could handle hardware encode/decode of 8-bit H.264 and H.265. Airdropping 4K video from my iPhone straight to my MacBook for editing is awesome - and now I can also do some light editing in Lumafusion on my iPhone and then continue on Final Cut Pro on my MacBook.

An A-series 12" MacBook wishlist:

even better battery life, thanks TSMC 7NM process and Apple A-series design

same great form factor: lightweight design, trackpad, speakers, keyboard (I happen to love typing on the butterfly keyboard, but wish a simple crumb wouldn't cripple it)

fanless design that uses the external case as a heatsink (so externally cooling the machine or an add-on cooling platform would be effective - this might already be the case.)

2 Thunderbolt 3 ports, 1 headphone jack

FaceTime camera supporting FaceID of equal quality to the then-current rear-facing wide iPhone Pro camera.

T2 chip or its successor

OLED or MicroLED (NOT miniLED) display with adaptive refresh rate up to 120Hz, 10bit color, P3 color
space or better

reduced bezel size, or even edge to edge display

Wifi 6

optional 5G (like iPad Pro has optional LTE)
 
The 12" MacBook is a great machine. An Apple A-series chip designed for that form factor would make it an incredible machine. My fanless early 2016 12" MacBook makes the new 13" MacBook Air with a fan feel loud and heavy. I do casual video editing on it, and while it struggles with 10-bit H.265 video due to no hardware encode/decode, it can handle a surprising range of workflows. As a power user coming from a 17" MacBook Pro, I wasn't sure the 2016 12" MacBook would cut it for me performance-wise, but I was intrigued by its forward-thinking form-factor and its Skylake cpu could handle hardware encode/decode of 8-bit H.264 and H.265. Airdropping 4K video from my iPhone straight to my MacBook for editing is awesome - and now I can also do some light editing in Lumafusion on my iPhone and then continue on Final Cut Pro on my MacBook.

An A-series 12" MacBook wishlist:

even better battery life, thanks TSMC 7NM process and Apple A-series design

same great form factor: lightweight design, trackpad, speakers, keyboard (I happen to love typing on the butterfly keyboard, but wish a simple crumb wouldn't cripple it)

fanless design that uses the external case as a heatsink (so externally cooling the machine or an add-on cooling platform would be effective - this might already be the case.)

2 Thunderbolt 3 ports, 1 headphone jack

FaceTime camera supporting FaceID of equal quality to the then-current rear-facing wide iPhone Pro camera.

T2 chip or its successor

OLED or MicroLED (NOT miniLED) display with adaptive refresh rate up to 120Hz, 10bit color, P3 color
space or better

reduced bezel size, or even edge to edge display

Wifi 6

optional 5G (like iPad Pro has optional LTE)

My wife’s 12” MB is currently in with an authorized service shop, a couple weeks before apple care runs out, having its keyboard replaced. Third time it’s had a key fail. My 2016 MBP is also on its third failed key - at this point i just rely on an external magic keyboard.

Butterfly sucks. Magic keyboard for ipad feels 10x better than any butterfly keyboard.
 
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