Kuo: MacBooks With Apple-Designed Processors Coming Late 2020 or Early 2021, All-New Design to Follow in Mid 2021

[oneMadRssn]

I think people were expecting the 12" to be the "new Air" and follow the same path as the original: start off as a premium-priced ultra-portable but evolve into the new entry-level. The (just) "Macbook" name suggested that, too.

Only Apple knows what the sales were like. They did have a bit of a pile-up at the low end with the 12" MB, the Air and the entry-level 13" "formerly known as non-touchbar" MBP (which is arguably the real 'Just MacBook' rather than a 'Pro').

I think the issue with the 12" is that Apple clearly want to position the iPad Pro as 'more than a content-consumption tablet' so the two products are really in contention, especially with touchpad keyboards, mouse support and full Photoshop lined up for iPad.

The new Retina 13" Macbook Air is more like the 12" MB than the 13" MBA it replaced as both use the Y-series 7W CPU. In a way, what you described is exactly what happened, just with a name change.

I agree with you that Apple's naming conventions lately have been a mess, especially with the non-touchbar MBP. I also agree that the iPad is being positioned as Apple's premier ultraportable, and not any Macbook. I think that is why Apple ultimately up-sized the Macbook a bit and called it the new Air.

 

[Misaki]

That is the case today and probably for years to come, but ARM is not a static platform in terms of hardware development.

Apple needs a beachhead to both emulate x64-86 and to get developers to start porting their existing x86-64 code to native ARM. The current Y-series CPUs in the MacBook Air are relatively low-performance so an A13X can quite possibly execute x86-64 code faster in emulation than the Amber Lake-Y series can natively (just as the Intel Core CPUs could run PowerPC code in emulation faster than the lower-end G5s could natively).

Every few months for the last 5 years some bonehead stock analyst has said "this year Apple will use their own CPU's in all their Mac's" and every year it's been wrong. This year is no different. It's like the refrain about Linux "Will (year) be the year of the Linux Desktop?" No, it never will. Ever. Some dramatic upheaval in how computers are used would have to happen that makes Windows and OSX unpalatable.

So this ham-fisted "switch to ARM" could be that, but you have to understand the differences in the platforms. There really is nothing stopping a developer from making a OSX or iPadOS or iOS software run on all three. The "fat binary" has existed for quite some time.

But I think the stock analysts are never looking at a big enough picture. The interpretation I'd have gone with is that Apple is going to make an iPad "Laptop" , and drop the Macbook Air. As it is the iPad outperforms the Macbook Air already. There is some demand for that (mainly from people doing remote office work, freelance journalists, etc) where a MacBook Pro is physically too big, and Windows Laptops only last 1/4 as long on a battery and have to be much bigger while being much slower. iPad's already last 8-12 hours where equal Windows devices last 4.

I do not ever see Apple replacing Intel in their desktops or MacBook Pro line, because that would only hurt them. Intel would have to completely shoot themselves in the foot , and that still leaves AMD which Apple uses already for GPU's.

2011:

Intel: Apple Switching MacBooks To ARM Is A Very Real And Scary Threat For Us

It's been a long-standing rumor that Apple will switch to its own, proprietary 'A' series of ARM-based chips in its MacBook and desktop machines.

www.cultofmac.com

2012:

The threat of Macs switching from x86 to ARM - ExtremeTech

In a way, it's been public knowledge that Apple is tinkering with OS X on ARM since 2007. In fact, its best selling products run on ARM processors, so it makes a lot of sense that it would at least be in the running for its desktops and laptops.

www.extremetech.com

2012:

Apple intern spent 12 weeks porting Mac OS X to ARM - Geek.com

Apple is no stranger to switching its operating system between processor architectures. Until 2005 Mac OS ran on PowerPC before making the switch to Intel. More recently there have been rumors that Apple …

www.geek.com

2013:

Apple A6 MacBook Air By 2013 Says Analyst: OS X And iOS To Merge - SlashGear

Apple will need to merge OS X and iOS if its aim of satisfying seamless content management and cloud-service delivery is to work out, according…

www.slashgear.com

2016:

Evidence is Mounting: Apple Will Convert the Macs to ARM CPUs

Evidence is mounting. Apple really will take the Macs from Intel to ARM. Soon.

www.macobserver.com

2018:

Apple is moving on from Intel because Intel isn’t moving anywhere

Apple’s abandonment of Intel chips is inevitable

www.theverge.com

Like I have a bridge to sell you if this year is any different from the last 10 years. Ming-Chi Kuo has been beating this drum for at least 5 years. https://www.cultofmac.com/309019/worlds-top-apple-analyst-probably-wrong-arm-based-macs/

 

[LuciusWrong]

Hmm, I was kind of expecting a new design later this year, together with MiniLED. But I can’t wait until next year. I wonder what’s the best approach here... buy a 16” now and upgrade next late summer? That would give also buffer in case something goes wrong with the production and software compatibility.

On the other hand, maybe the current models will completely lose their resale value once the redesigned models hit the market, so maybe waiting until the MiniLED would give the best value out of this gen at least. But then again, those are only rumors and this wait would already be a stretch for me. Tough call...

What do you think?

The 16" is a boring computer. Therefore it is the perfect machine to replace an old machine that is damaged or too slow...you will feel like nothing has changed, because it looks, feels, and operates the same. This is the best thing you can hope for if you view a computer as a tool, as I tend to.

However, if you buy new computers because you are looking for something interesting to spice up your life, you will want to wait.

I fear the arm based machine will come with a toy grade OS (meaning ipad OS, if you didnt guess), and it will be more ipad than computer. Apple seems allergic to having mature products, so they will do something odd which they can sell as being new and exciting, which in all likelihood will eliminate some functionality we all take for granted.

So yeah, business as usual?

 

[Roscorito]

Brace yourselves gen-x luddites, MacBooks are about to get a lot thinner.

 

[firewood]

NOTHING has come from Apple about this. NOTHING.

Nothing came from Apple about doing 64-bit devices. Until they did. Surprise!
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Switching to RISC processors solely, imo, would be horrible for higher-end complex tasks that we use these machines for and compatibility for the whole software ecosystem and as others have said: software development.

Real software developers have been developing multi-platform software for years/decades. Stuff that runs on systems from IBM Power mainframes in huge data centers to racks of Raspberry Pi's. Oh, and this x86 stuff as well.

 

[LuciusWrong]

If this happen, it's gonna run iPadOS. An iPad with a fixed keyboard. The world isn't ready for an ARM notebook.
And I bet it's gonna be a fiasco

I would put money on that!

But i would also bet it is as successful as airpods... oh yeah, it will probably have no headphone jack, because why would it?

If it had more computer style functionality than an ipaf, and if it has LTE built in, there definitely is a use case for it. But without a doubt there will be glaring/intentional omissions to the OS that mean most will still need a proper laptop, in addition, in Apples ideal scenario.

It will be a classic case of, "We could have given you what you asked for, but we decided to give you this instead."

 

[smeagol]

Adobe has already started the transition, thats why we have Photoshop for the iPad and Illustrator soon to follow. Sure, it does not have feature parity and Adobe admits that. But, its the same code base and Adobe is adding features over time that either matches or reimagines it for the iPad. By the time Apple has a notebook ready with A-Series, Adobe should already have two of its key apps optimized for it.

Personally, I am moving away from Adobe anyway and my upgrade needs have drastically changed in the past few months. Even when these new devices come to market, I suspect I will still be using my 2015 MBP and 2017 iPad Pro and iPhone X. The necessity in having the latest and greatest has faded, well, at least for some of us. But, I am looking forward to seeing how Apple handles this one.

I think you're half right. Yes, Adobe is transitioning to ARM and they can gain valuable insights into how to optimize for ARM by building Photoshop, Illustrator, etc for iPad. But these are not the same apps that will be coming to Mac, those are touch-based apps. Adobe is going to move its entire suite of x86 apps over to Mac using Apple's tools which should be mature enough to handle the task. For x86 apps waiting to be replaced by a native app, Apple will likely introduce an emulator like the Rosetta Stone software they used during their PowerPC to Intel transition which was relatively smooth all things considered. People forget this is not Apple's first rodeo transitioning to new processor architecture.

 

[techwhiz]

This is some analyst making a guess. Oh boy.

 

[firewood]

Apple can just get rid of all their customers who need bootcamp and intel-locked software, and sales of Macs will increase. Why? Because Apple's ML acceleration is ahead of Intel's, and apps that don't use AI assistance will be seen as obsolete in a few years. Apple's development community will be forced to move first and fast, and people stuck using intel-locked software will be left farther and farther behind. It won't be iPadOS, but macOS, because that's what needed to support AI and ML development.

Of course, reality is often different from science fiction. Sometimes in the opposite direction you might think.
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Apple is ’all in‘ with iOS and ARM. Seems like Apple would get rid of Mac OS if think they could.

Someone who doesn't realize that iOS is macOS (with a few added security restrictions).

 

[bobtem]

Why would they release anything this spring, if the next big leap is coming 6 months later?

 

[Mr. Dee]

I think you're half right. Yes, Adobe is transitioning to ARM and they can gain valuable insights into how to optimize for ARM by building Photoshop, Illustrator, etc for iPad. But these are not the same apps that will be coming to Mac, those are touch-based apps. Adobe is going to move its entire suite of x86 apps over to Mac using Apple's tools which should be mature enough to handle the task. For x86 apps waiting to be replaced by a native app, Apple will likely introduce an emulator like the Rosetta Stone software they used during their PowerPC to Intel transition which was relatively smooth all things considered. People forget this is not Apple's first rodeo transitioning to new processor architecture.

I think the part you are missing, this is actually the same Photoshop codebase thats on the iPad right now. This means, the heavy lifting is out of the way and thats why they are already doing Illustrator. When the A-Series MacBook is here, all Adobe needs to do is code the features for a desktop environment on Mac.

 

[smeagol]

How about neither? I'd expect the first MacBooks with custom ARM processors to be just that: MacBooks. Not MacBook Pro and not MacBook Air, just MacBook. The first ARM MacBook should be the realization of the dream that the 12" Macbook failed to achieve (because Intel's ultra low power chips weren't fast enough or cheap enough). ARM on Mac will have to prove itself before it replaces Intel in the Pro or Air.

Completely Agree. An ARM Macbook would be the perfect test bed for the new architecture. It's not a mass-market product but would sell enough to prove it's capabilities. An A-series X powered Macbook would rival the power of Intel's latest top of the line Macbook Pros, with faster processors, powerful integrated graphics and exceptional battery life, all in a small, fan-less package.

I'd buy one, as long as it has a great screen (hopefully mini-led or OLED, new scissor keyboard, at least 2 USB-C ports (one on either side), and a high res facetime camera.

 

[rowspaxe]

Sure, it does not have feature parity and Adobe admits that. But, its the same code base and Adobe is adding features over time that either matches or reimagines it for the iPad. By the time Apple has a notebook ready with A-Series, Adobe should already have two of its key apps optimized for it.

Photoshop for ipad is total garbage. "reimagining" photoshop means developing fresco.

 

[Mago]

ARM is not a static platform in terms of hardware development.

Neither is x86-64 since AMD comeback, the CPU war revivify and given the resources both own its easy to forecast a bloddy fight one which ARM can only watch from far away, Apple is managed conservatively unlikely we will see Apple stepping into the void, with thus scenario most likely Apple to switch from Intel to AMD for desktops and pro laptops and maybe open a safeguard product line on ARM based soc likely the same soc in latest higher end iPad pro.

Switching to ARM like when from g4 to x86, has no sense scenarios are drastically different and more dynamic.

 

[rowspaxe]

Now it's the other way round. We're going from the standard CPU architecture to an Apple exclusive one which means software compability will be a huge issue, especially early on. Sure you gain easier to implement compability with mobile OS apps but what's more important on a MacBook?

And remeber they are not transitioning the entire mac computer line. Anyone see the Mac Pro going arm? So there will be a need for the new arm software and the intel software.
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That one in a million scientist working for some special company who needs a Mac and want run Windows is kind of a unicorn. AKA #enthusiast.

#mac rumors poster

 

[otozuz]

When reading mid-2021, does anyone else fantasize about the world after (hopefully) this Coronavirus crisis?

 

[sublunar]

Reading through this, I'm not convinced that Apple can make an ARM powered MacBook Pro work at this moment. The timescale of late 2020-2021 suggests an A14X would be the CPU used. Is it ready for the big time?

My thought on it is a development of the iPadOS which would seemingly include Smart Keyboards with trackpads. I doubt Apple would care to market something that might confuse consumers with incompatibilities and limitations.

I think it's more plausible that Apple could be preparing for the following improvements to iPadOS to help create a new product - the iBook:

a. Multi-user support - to help schools out. Or at least a guest mode. iPads are very personal items, going them the ability to have home spaces for multiple users gives the opportunity for multiple people to use them - just like a Mac - or even just the capability to let house guests go browse the web.

b. Mouse pointer support on app level. The keyboard case suggestion makes the iPad viable for people on the go who need to type a lot of content. giving them a trackpad too would make an iPad ergonomically sound for people who need to type lots of stuff on their lap without needing to be on a stable flat surface.

c. A novel use for the Touch Bar in iOS? A permanent keyboard case which could become a 2-in-1 device for Apple?

Mouse pointer support is a step in the right direction for iPadOS. And a keyboard case that could accommodate a screen and decent scissor keyboard would be one way of enhancing an iPad Pro for people who need to do a lot of typing or precision mouse work.

 

[talhak]

I think the current design of MacBook Pros is really great; no need to have a re-design. Even smaller bezels would be more than enough. Also, I'd prefer smaller top bezels instead of having an integrated webcam.

 

[theluggage]

Every few months for the last 5 years some bonehead stock analyst has said "this year Apple will use their own CPU's in all their Mac's" and every year it's been wrong.

...and about this time in 2005 people were ridiculing the rumours saying that Apple were going to drop PowerPC and switch to Intel, because that would cause hell to freeze over. The same sort of argument was doubtless going on on comp.sys.apple back in 1993 when Apple were about to ditch the 68000. Heck, back in 1983 the acoustic couplers were probably buzzing with reasons why the Mac should stick with the 6502...

Yes, it's still a rumor. No, it might not happen. Yes, it could be an iPad laptop, or just a bigger role for the T3 chip. But that doesn't make spurious arguments about why it couldn't happen valid (esp. after Apple has made bigger transitions in the past),

It's like the refrain about Linux "Will (year) be the year of the Linux Desktop?" No, it never will. Ever. Some dramatic upheaval in how computers are used would have to happen that makes Windows and OSX unpalatable.

Actually, the refrain used to be "The year of Unix on the desktop" - guess what your Mac is running today? Oh, and Windows 10 has a built-in Linux subsystem. Then there's Chromebooks (Linux kernel, and the current version can run Linux software). Not to mention the whole mobile/tablet thing that nobody really saw coming, took a huge bite out of the low end of the laptop/desktop market and is mostly running either Linux (Android) or iOS (which is still a Unix-like system under all the lockdown). The main reason why what most people mean by Linux (Linux/GNU/X distros) hasn't taken over the desktop is because the world of Linux desktop GUIs is a fragmented dumpster fire ("But have you tried <insert favourate desktop manager>?" - Exactly).

Meanwhile, several companies are announcing super-powered ARM chips for the server market, reducing power consumption is a top concern, super-computer builders are using ARM chips, even Microsoft is having another tilt at the windmill with Windows on ARM, more and more developers are targeting ARM-based mobile platforms and the rest of the computing world is increasingly using web technologies - or other processor-independent stuff. Also, Intel has been in a right mess for the last several years.

 

[firewood]

Reading through this, I'm not convinced that Apple can make an ARM powered MacBook Pro work at this moment. The timescale of late 2020-2021 suggests an A14X would be the CPU used. Is it ready for the big time?

Apple regularly designs separate new processor chips for watches and AirPods, etc. No reason they wouldn't also design a separate processor chip for a full laptop or desktop, capable of hosting more memory, a ton more IO bandwidth, and maybe supporting a much higher thermal envelope. So maybe not an A14X, but perhaps something more like a bigger faster X14A.

The A12X was already ready for thin-and-light versions of big time, too far ahead of the software and strategies.

 

[MacRazySwe]

I'm very hesitant towards Kuo's reports lately... E.g.

* New iPad Pros in Q1 and then again, new iPad Pro's at the end of the year with Micro LED?
* New MacBook Air & Pro's in Q2 and New MacBooks with ARM processors in late 2020? Then all new design in 2021!

With the ongoing corona virus I would be surprised to even see one update to each product line this year. Then again, I'm no analyst.

 

[GtrDude]

Did Apple learn from the PowerPC fiasco? We need x86 compatibility with the 97% of the world, and that means Intel chips inside Macs! Otherwise, it is a deal breaker and switch to Windows. A shame for all.

I'm worried about that very same thing. I remember the days of when Apple was always incompatible with everyone else. It was a nightmare.

My hope is that today's Apple engineers know better.
But to buy a first generation of these laptops is out of the question for me.

Don't have time any more to deal with software incompatibilities and emailing things back and forth because no one can open them.

 

[high heaven]

With ARM-based Mac, the software would be the biggest problem since only a few apps will going to support the first release of ARM-based Mac.

Most professional software is based on x86 like Adobe and I am not sure if they are WILLING to create an app for ARM-based Mac or not.

Also, most games aren't created for ARM. This is another huge problem for those of you playing PC games. I am not talking about iOS games.

 

[Gudi]

And it costs ... 1 billion dollars!

Seriously, make it cheap and I will buy it. No matter the backward compatibility.

 

[Unregistered 4U]

Anyone see the Mac Pro going arm? So there will be a need for the new arm software and the intel software.

I do. Apple has shown a degree of skill in taking their ARM designs wherever they’re needed. The Apple Watch, iPhone and iPad all execute the same instructions using physically different processors successfully. If Intel can make small efficient as well as high power processors and AMD can make small efficient as well as high power processors, even though I don’t know how it’d happen, I accept the fact that Apple could produce small efficient and high power processors as well. I mean, it’s all science and engineering trade-offs, not magic.

The timescale of late 2020-2021 suggests an A14X would be the CPU used. Is it ready for the big time?

It’s my opinion that A-series has been ready for the big time for awhile. Benchmarks are synthetic, of course, BUT just the fact that a processor made by Apple (and not AMD) can best Intel on a watt per watt level is definitely notable. The fact that an A-series chip can also best many of Intel’s higher power options is even more interesting.

with reasons why the Mac should stick with the 6502...

“The entire Apple computing world is built around the 6502! I can’t believe Apple would produce a non-6502 system, BUT, if they DID come out with something that couldn’t even run Apple //e software? I’d say it’s over and they won’t live to see 1990.” /s