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Who’s getting the first generation AR/VR?

First-generation is not even out yet. Kuo must be living in the future.

Looks like the first generation is not even worth buying at this point.
That being said a lot of us here will get it anyway.

Not me though since VR gives me motion sickness.
 
yea, 2nd gen Apple car coming in 2027 ... these stories become more and more laughable
I can't wait to see the keynote for the car with Craig's hair blowing from a breeze as he drives by the location MacOS is named after that year.
 
How would Kuo know when the 2nd gen will launch when the 1st gen hasn't even launched yet?

Throw out random dates and numbers to see what sticks?
While true he might be making it up, it's very naïve and short-sighted to think Apple doesn't have a product roadmap including estimated release dates for the next 5 years if not more.
 
I could be wrong, but I feel like this device, and the entire product category, is going to bomb in spectacular fashion.

I get 3DTV vibes whenever I see this thing.
When it’s ready it will be transformative. It’s not ready. Really needs to be more simple almost like glasses.
 
When it’s ready it will be transformative. It’s not ready. Really needs to be more simple almost like glasses.

You have to explain what will it transform.

To do that you have to say which industries and sectors.

In many sectors where we see AR hype the ideas don’t work.

They increase production budgets beyond what companies can afford.

With no benefit to consumers or revenue.

Then we come to the consumers themselves.

Most people in the world use a computer 5 years old and have a phone 3 years old.

So most people have devices not even compatible with whatever AR/VR device is coming.

They would have to upgrade all the computers and devices before even paying $2000 whatever for the AR/VR device.

Who has that money to burn? Who says recessions aren’t coming? Who says there are no political and economic headwinds coming?

So all I can do is see past hype. If only 5% of Mac/iPhone users have bought an Apple Watch (all generations included), which is really useful for health, then 1% of Mac/iPhone users will buy the AR/VR device. Maybe only half a percent.
 
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I could be wrong, but I feel like this device, and the entire product category, is going to bomb in spectacular fashion.

I get 3DTV vibes whenever I see this thing.
Well you are wrong, since if that was going to happen, it would have happened, and Apple or anyone for that matter would be doing no work on it - the industry would be ceased in all respects.

VR has been growing for double the length of 3D TVs and has been through the entire birth and death cycle of 3D TVs without dying or declining.

Let the comparison go. It's no longer relevant.
 
You have to explain what will it transform.

To do that you have to say which industries and sectors.

In many sectors where we see AR hype the ideas don’t work.

They increase production budgets beyond what companies can afford.

With no benefit to consumers or revenue.

Then we come to the consumers themselves.

Most people in the world use a computer 5 years old and have a phone 3 years old.

So most people have devices not even compatible with whatever AR/VR device is coming.

They would have to upgrade all the computers and devices before even paying $2000 whatever for the AR/VR device.

Who has that money to burn? Who says recessions aren’t coming? Who says there are no political and economic headwinds coming?

So all I can do is see past hype. If only 5% of Mac/iPhone users have bought an Apple Watch (all generations included), which is really useful for health, then 1% of Mac/iPhone users will buy the AR/VR device. Maybe only half a percent.
You don't need to upgrade anything. VR/AR are their own computers. They require no external dependence.

It's pretty clear that VR/AR in the home will have tremendous implications for usecases such as communication, virtual offices, virtual schools, exercise, art and performance, lifestyle, travel, live events, and entertainment / media.
 
Just as you are free to optimistic, I am free to be pessimistic.
Just as I am free to bet on a $2T company getting it right. If I were to list their successes it would be a much much longer list. While I find all these delays frustrating, (2025 now versus what 2022 originally), it is encouraging that they are not rushing to market and making sure it is ready.
 
Who ever buys gen 1 is going to get screwed (says the person with lots of gen 1 Apple products…)

As someone who buys most gen 1 (was late on Apple TV), I would say you are right about being screwed if you are going to do a feature / value comparison to gen 2. But, I will keep on buying gen 1 because I enjoy getting in on new tech, exploring it, having fun with it, and that's the value in it for me. I accept when everyone else jumps on the bandwagon it will get cheaper better, but I already had my fun.
 
You have to explain what will it transform.

To do that you have to say which industries and sectors.

In many sectors where we see AR hype the ideas don’t work.

They increase production budgets beyond what companies can afford.

With no benefit to consumers or revenue.

Then we come to the consumers themselves.

Most people in the world use a computer 5 years old and have a phone 3 years old.

So most people have devices not even compatible with whatever AR/VR device is coming.

They would have to upgrade all the computers and devices before even paying $2000 whatever for the AR/VR device.

Who has that money to burn? Who says recessions aren’t coming? Who says there are no political and economic headwinds coming?

So all I can do is see past hype. If only 5% of Mac/iPhone users have bought an Apple Watch (all generations included), which is really useful for health, then 1% of Mac/iPhone users will buy the AR/VR device. Maybe only half a percent.

Apple doesn't make computers or phones for most people of the world, so world statistics aren't helpful. Their market is those that value the experience and are willing to pay for it versus those buy the cheapest and hold on to it forever. And has been pointed out, these are not to be paired with a device but will be stand alone. With all the video meetings going on, there will be a huge market for people that dont always want to sit at a desk but just pop these on for a meeting.
 
You don't need to upgrade anything. VR/AR are their own computers. They require no external dependence.

It's pretty clear that VR/AR in the home will have tremendous implications for usecases such as communication, virtual offices, virtual schools, exercise, art and performance, lifestyle, travel, live events, and entertainment / media.

Not all VR/AR devices are their own computers. Being their own computer though, I doubt they will always be stand alone. The Apple Watch isn’t even stand alone when it can be. There will be some kind of eco-system feature that will require users to sync between other devices for maximum features.

In fact if they are tethered to a device that brings the costs right down to an affordable level. AR glasses that do all the compute on the phone will mean the glasses can be lightweight and don’t need a large battery.

Yeah I can magically imagine these being used to improve every sector in the universe. Imagining is easy. I can imagine self walking 3D printed legs that take me to work, but people will laugh at it.

Magically imagining things is different from making them work.

You already have a school with a tight budget. Now you add the VR thing on top and what? You need the extra budget to develop and maintain on top. But what is the benefit? Did it fix anything? Can students study better with an expensive headset? Doubt it.

Exercise? People magically become stronger and fitter because VR on top of the exercise? The exercises already work. A dumbbell curl without VR is the same dumbbell curl with VR. Adding something on top is just an extra cost.

Travel? OK virtual travel. I can already watch travel videos. Why do I need travel videos in 3D? There are privacy implications with that and high maintenance costs for whoever develops that. They have to get permissions from locals for so many reasons.

Virtual office. This one needs a new compatible computer tethered if it is using desktop apps. But why virtual office? Outside Mark Zuckerberg’s stupid presentations that everyone laughed at I don’t know what’s the point. Just use chat or FaceTime/Zoom, etc. Which brings us to…

Communication? We already have video, audio, 3D communication. Why do I need something on my head that costs so much? It doesn’t add anything. You are asking for everyone in your circle to have the same device. What if half of them don’t because it doesn’t add anything of value?

In every case, there is a big cost on top of what already exists. It’s not just a hardware cost.

If you ask me only 1-2% of people will have it and most of them will be just watching adult content and dying of loneliness.
 
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Not all VR/AR devices are their own computers. Being their own computer though, I doubt they will always be stand alone. The Apple Watch isn’t even stand alone when it can be. There will be some kind of eco-system feature that will require users to sync between other devices for maximum features.

In fact if they are tethered to a device that brings the costs right down to an affordable level. AR glasses that do all the compute on the phone will mean the glasses can be lightweight and don’t need a large battery.

Yeah I can magically imagine these being used to improve every sector in the universe. Imagining is easy. I can imagine self walking 3D printed legs that take me to work, but people will laugh at it.

Magically imagining things is different from making them work.

You already have a school with a tight budget. Now you add the VR thing on top and what? You need the extra budget to develop and maintain on top. But what is the benefit? Did it fix anything? Can students study better with an expensive headset? Doubt it.

Exercise? People magically become stronger and fitter because VR on top of the exercise? The exercises already work. A dumbbell curl without VR is the same dumbbell curl with VR. Adding something on top is just an extra cost.

Travel? OK virtual travel. I can already watch travel videos. Why do I need travel videos in 3D? There are privacy implications with that and high maintenance costs for whoever develops that. They have to get permissions from locals for so many reasons.

Virtual office. This one needs a new compatible computer tethered if it is using desktop apps. But why virtual office? Outside Mark Zuckerberg’s stupid presentations that everyone laughed at I don’t know what’s the point. Just use chat or FaceTime/Zoom, etc. Which brings us to…

Communication? We already have video, audio, 3D communication. Why do I need something on my head that costs so much? It doesn’t add anything. You are asking for everyone in your circle to have the same device. What if half of them don’t because it doesn’t add anything of value?

In every case, there is a big cost on top of what already exists. It’s not just a hardware cost.

If you ask me only 1-2% of people will have it and most of them will be just watching adult content and dying of loneliness.
You will need to sync with an external camera or perhaps an EMG wristband of some kind in the future, sure, though in the home this wouldn't be required.

Many of these usecases aren't imagined but are things the tech is used for today.

When I mentioned schools, I don't mean you go to school and have headsets in classrooms. You attend a virtual school from home. We know that people lose a lot through zoom school versus in-person, mostly in the engagement/focus and social aspect, which VR can remedy greatly.

VR exercise absolutely has unique benefits: https://ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7312871/

Anyone comparing travel videos to VR doesn't understand what VR even is in the first place. There's a fundamental difference between watching a 2D video on a small screen and having the perceptual experience of being at a place in full scale.

Virtual offices would enable better collaborative capabilities as the tech progresses, because sharing 3D space is more natural and easier to share materials, and plenty more socially engaging which is important for various jobs where team bonding are key - zoom fatigue will be solved through this too.

If you think VR doesn't add anything to communication, then you have never actually spent time communicating in VR. It is more engaging as you can feel like you are face to face with someone, you get extra subtle social cues, it's in full scale, you have more agency and interaction between people, and you can do all sorts of activities together in a shared space. What is a shared concert experience like on zoom? Pretty disconnected right? In VR, you can each be in a shared full-scale concert venue and physically dancing together to a visually compelling experience.

I think the issue is you're assuming too many things about a technology you have no or little experience with. You need to start putting in time into the tech before you make these judgements about it.
 
How would Kuo know when the 2nd gen will launch when the 1st gen hasn't even launched yet?

Throw out random dates and numbers to see what sticks?

You didn’t hear about the M4 chip that Apple is releasing after the M3 chip?

The M4 chip is going to be faster than the M3. It will be used in Apple’s Mac lineup with the last eat version of macOS.
 
I am getting as sick about hearing these rumors from Kuo et al, as I am about the Apple Car. Shut up already. At this point most people understand Apple enough to make these guesses as accurately, or more, than these overpaid hacks.
 
I will wait for 4th generation. It's going to be lighter, thinner and arOS 4.0 will be more stable. I don't want it hacked like 2nd gen AppleAR Pro Max. That thing was heavy too. My kids hated that since they were so bulky. And hopefully arOS 4.0 fixes that "duplicate gate" bug where you sometimes see duplicate 3d object instead when there was tree nearby. /s
 
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