Kuo Warns of Delays and Low Labor Return Rates at Apple Supplier Factories in China Due to Coronavirus [Updated]

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Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo today sent out a note to investors warning them to pay close attention to the epidemic changes of the coronavirus outbreak in China as it is impacting Foxconn, Pegatron, and other Apple suppliers.

In the note, Kuo outlines the status of several major Apple suppliers as workers prepare to return to factories to resume production on Apple products.


Foxconn's Zhengzhou site, which Kuo says is the most critical production site for the iPhone 11 and the upcoming low-cost iPhone, is seeing significant delays. Foxconn originally planned to resume work on February 2, but that has been postponed by at least one week. Kuo estimates that the labor return rate will be 40 to 60 percent of what it was prior to the Lunar New Year holiday when the facility reopens.

Work at Foxconn's Shenzhen location focuses on the new 2020 iPhones, and the development team there, which accounts for 30 percent of total manpower, did not take a break during the holiday. Kuo says the plan initially filled other manpower gaps, but it has been postponed for at least a week. Labor return rates are estimated at 30 to 50 percent.

Foxconn has moved production equipment to its sites in Taiyuan and India because of the delays in China, but production capacities are limited in those locations.

A report yesterday suggested that Chinese health officials had denied Foxconn's plans to reopen its factories after conducting on-site inspections and finding fault with poor airflow and the use of central air conditioning, but Chinese authorities in a statement today said that they had not blocked Foxconn from resuming production.

According to new information from Reuters, officials in Shenzhen's Longhua district where Foxconn's largest factory is located said that the report was untrue and that it was still conducting checks. Production at Foxconn facilities will restart when inspections have been completed, and Foxconn has submitted coronavirus prevention proposals that include temperature checks, requiring employees to wearing masks, and implementing a safe dining system.

Pegatron, another Apple supplier, resumed work on iPhone 11 production and new iPhone 12 development at its Shanghai factory on February 3, with a labor return rate of 90 percent, but Kuo believes that the labor rate will fall to 60 or 70 percent because many factory employees will resign after they get paid in February.

Pegatron's Kunshan factory in charge of production on the new low-cost iPhone was meant to return to work on February 10, but that has been postponed "at least several days" with an estimated labor return rate of 40 to 60 percent when it reopens.

Kuo declined to provide new shipment forecasts because "there are still many uncertainties," but last week he lowered his iPhone shipment forecast by 10 percent to 36 to 40 million units during Q1 2020 due to the coronavirus.

Depending on when Apple's supplier factories reopen, there could be a significant impact on device supplies resulting in longer shipping and wait times for new devices and potential delays for devices rumored to be to launching early in the year like the low-cost iPhone.

Update: Reuters reports that, as of February 10, under 10 percent of Foxconn's workforce have returned to its Zhengzhou factory. The report claims that Foxconn has not yet been allowed to resume operations at its Shenzhen facility.

Update: Reuters now reports that Foxconn has received Chinese government approval to resume production at its Shenzhen factory.

Article Link: Kuo Warns of Delays and Low Labor Return Rates at Apple Supplier Factories in China Due to Coronavirus [Updated]
 
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Baymowe335

macrumors 603
Oct 6, 2017
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Seems as of now to be a low impact.

Apple is likely burning through inventory, but still has cushion. More delays could cause problems, but people will ultimately wait for their iPhones.

If anything, this just shifts units to the next quarter.

I have a lot of confidence in Apple’s world class supply chain.
 

fmcshan

Editor
Apr 8, 2019
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New Hampshire
I wonder how much of an impact coronavirus will have on the iPhone SE 2/iPhone 9? If Apple holds to tradition, there will likely still be a March event, but supply will probably be limited at launch.
 

realtuner

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Mar 8, 2019
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Another stock market manipulation.

Here’s something to think about. Apple (and their manufacturers) can ramp production up and down fairly quickly. For example, increasing production during the iPhone launch/holiday quarter. Apple isn’t locked in to producing x amount of iPhones per week.

Im sure Apple can easily ramp production up again for a few weeks to compensate for this disruption.
 
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realeric

macrumors 65816
Jun 19, 2009
1,061
1,316
United States
The new coronavirus will be pandemic worldwide soon. It's too late to be stopped. Yes, you might see a doctor if you survived in a line for days outside a hospital. Then the guard in front of the hospital will say "Sorry, we have no space for you. Go back home". I was told this were happening in China now.

Buy N95 masks, sanitizer, and food. Oh, you can't buy the mask as all are already sold out.
 

btrach144

macrumors 68000
Aug 28, 2015
1,697
3,882
Seems as of now to be a low impact.

Apple is likely burning through inventory, but still has cushion. More delays could cause problems, but people will ultimately wait for their iPhones.

If anything, this just shifts units to the next quarter.

I have a lot of confidence in Apple’s world class supply chain.
Not exactly world class when it’s not geo redundant.
 
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Metrosey

macrumors regular
Oct 18, 2019
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If Apple products are delayed or out of stock due to this virus, so what, the major concern is safety and stopping the spread of the virus. I'm sure we can all wait for our products if required. Now from an Apple point of view, I'm sure they have risk management documentation that states what they will do in a pandemic/epidemic and in turn, likely have solutions.
 

az431

macrumors 68000
Sep 13, 2008
1,532
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Portland, OR
Another stock market manipulation.

Here’s something to think about. Apple (and their manufacturers) can ramp production up and down fairly quickly. For example, increasing production during the iPhone launch/holiday quarter. Apple isn’t locked in to producing x amount of iPhones per week.

Im sure Apple can easily ramp production up again for a few weeks to compensate for this disruption.
Kuo spread the coronavirus to manipulate the stock market?
 

RogerWilco

macrumors 6502a
Jul 29, 2011
750
1,240
This nCoV is far more contagious than the flu. The dumbest move possible is bringing tens of thousands of workers together in a closed space 24 hours a day. It doesn’t matter if they wear masks and gloves, normal activities during the day will expose everyone and within a week they will have to shut it down and deal with hundreds maybe thousands of new cases.
 
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Relentless Power

macrumors Nehalem
Jul 12, 2016
33,245
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Wow! Mr. Ming sends out something about the bleeding obvious.
Genuine question, are you an investor? I’m assuming you’re not, Because it specifically states that Kuo was addressing investors In this article (Which Apple would Want investors to be updated at all times given this ever-changing situation) at least advising them of the status given the setback in China with the return rates.
 

mariusignorello

macrumors 68000
Jun 9, 2013
1,689
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Hopefully these workers aren't forced to come in and make phones while being worried about being infected by the coronavirus. they are already treated like ****. everyone can wait a few extra months for their new instagram-time sucking machine.
Yeah...some of us use our phones for business purposes so please speak for yourself.
 
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newyorksole

macrumors 601
Apr 2, 2008
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If Apple products are delayed or out of stock due to this virus, so what, the major concern is safety and stopping the spread of the virus. I'm sure we can all wait for our products if required. Now from an Apple point of view, I'm sure they have risk management documentation that states what they will do in a pandemic/epidemic and in turn, likely have solutions.
I don’t understand those of you that say “so what? we can wait for products. safety first!”

This is not about consumers. This is about Apple, investors and Wall Street. Of course you can wait to buy a new iPhone. You have no choice! Lmao. It’s not like you can force Apple to do anything.

Apple’s goal is to sell as much products as possible and be as profitable as possible. Consumers will buy whatever Apple makes whenever it comes out, and if they can’t wait they’ll buy a previous generation or go to a competitor product.

That’s it. We know human lives are important. No one is saying they aren’t. At the end of the day... BUSINESS drives the world.
- - Post merged: - -

Yeah...some of us use our phones for business purposes so please speak for yourself.
We don’t even know the features of the new iPhones. I’m sure the iPhone 11 Pro can handle any business needs... It’ll remain an amazing iPhone regardless of what new model comes out.
 
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stylinexpat

macrumors 68000
Mar 6, 2009
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I got so many people from China this week messagings me asking me to ship them Face Masks. It is pretty sad now for many there.
 

realtuner

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Mar 8, 2019
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Kuo spread the coronavirus to manipulate the stock market?
Whoosh.

Kuo is using a temporary shutdown of factories to imply that Apple will have difficulties with production. The reason they are shut down is irrelevant.
 
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