I now think LeBron will end up in Chicago. It's the only team that has a core of players that he can start working with immediately. And it's a big enough market that he will have no problems building up his 'brand' there like he seems to want. I don't see any other top free agents joining him there, although I think they should really consider Ray Allen.
Wade is staying put in Miami and I think he will attract one of the power forwards, either Stoudemire or Bosh. I think Miami's situation is interesting because they have almost no one under contract right now. Even if they sign Wade and Bosh, their only other players will be Chalmers and Beasley. Then Riles has to assemble a bunch of cheap players to play with them. That, to me, is the biggest reason LeBron won't go there. He has already tried leading a bunch of mediocre teammates and it didn't work.
I think Bosh either joins Wade in Miami or goes to Houston in a sign-and-trade. Unlike Cleveland with LeBron, Toronto seems willing to do a sign-and-trade to get something for Bosh because they know he isn't coming back. All the rumors indicate that Houston really likes Bosh, and with continuing uncertainty over Yao's future, they need to shore up their frontcourt.
I see only two real possibilities for Amar'e: go to Miami with Wade, or join D'Antoni in NY. I think it will be the latter because he seems to want to be The Man on a team instead of part of an ensemble cast like in Phoenix. (Even though that's the last thing he should try. He's not a leader, a crunch-time player, or someone who can handle the media attention.) There's a list of guys who left D'Antoni's Suns thinking they could be big stars leading another team, and Stoudemire is just the latest one.
The Knicks have backed themselves into a weird corner now. At first it seemed amazing that they were able to shed so many of Isiah Thomas' contracts and get under the cap. But by doing so, they've created huge expectations in NY, so much so that now anything less than LeBron will be disappointing. (Personally, I find this very amusing. Unlike the Yankee fans who can back up their big spending and arrogance with championships, the Knick fans still cling to memories of the 40 years ago and act like they're still relevant, even though they aren't.) The Knicks also have nothing to offer any team in a sign-and-trade. I think their best hope is to sign both Joe Johnson and Amar'e, ramp up D'Antoni's run-and-gun offense and at least make the basketball exciting, even if they won't win anything.
It's amazing how fast the Nets have become players in this thing with the new Russian owner. But they have two big factors working against them. (1) It's unclear if or when they will be able to move to a new arena in Brooklyn. The billionaire owner can obviously get more things done, but it's not a done deal. In the meantime they're playing in Newark in front of fans that know they're leaving. Not exactly ideal. (2) The Nets suck. It's going to take a lot more than LeBron to make the Nets a winning team.
I think the Mavericks are a big wild card here. I don't see them getting LeBron because they don't have the cap space and I doubt Cleveland will do a sign-and-trade with them. But they will trade with somebody. Bosh and Johnson could potentially go there that way. Boozer and Rudy Gay may be available too. And players will be willing to go there because the Mavs are already in the playoff picture.
I think Cleveland is just an awful crossroads now. Even if they manage to keep LeBron, it's not clear where they go from here. None of the pieces they've assembled around him have created playoff success so far and they don't seem to have a plan. (Tom Izzo? Really?) And if they lose LeBron, then they might not make the playoffs next year. Pretty depressing for a city that's had a long sports depression already.