LG to Supply Apple Watch Displays, Apple Aiming to Sell 50 Million Units in 2015

[newyorksole]

50 Million ? Helllll no Lol .

Honestly, I've seen the video of it a couple of times and still can't figure out why I'd want one . Doesn't really do anything revolutionary .

 

[576316]

Hooray for blue washout colours and constant ghosting!!

These were my exact thoughts. I was unlucky enough to get an LG panel rMBP. Constant ghosting.

As the most valuable technology company in the world, why does Apple have to depend on other companies for their components? Is Apple not capable of producing all these parts by themselves?

 

[Ingster]

Why are people suprised that the Watch needs to connect to an iphone and only an iphone? samsung watches will only work with the samsung device it was created to be partnered with. A better cross party device its the pebble but it's very limited.

I will be getting one of each size, one for my wife and one for me, we're both excited about the product as we're apple geeks and are some of the few people around who still wear watches.

There is demand out there, ok maybe on 50 million demand, but you never know the non-forumite public may buy this in droves, there may be networks who have a tie in get the iphone 6 on this contract get the Watch sport free of charge (charges built into contract).

At least if there are lots of haters out there I won't have to wait for months from release to get one!

 

[DeltaMac]

I agree with what you say about price, but it will be selling for less than $349 starting at launch.

What no one seems to be talking about is that Apple dropped the price of the iPhone 6 by $300. It's just that Apple is a master at hiding discounts on its products. So no one realizes it.

All four U.S. carriers are offering $200 off for trading in an iPhone 4 or greater. The 64GB model is now $100 less than last year. That comes to $300.

I say that with carefully hidden discounts it will be $199 at launch.

I say that you should read John Gruber's take on the Apple Watch.
http://daringfireball.net/2014/09/apple_watch

John Gruber seems to know something about both Apple, and Apple products (or lots of folks think he does…) and he wants to have you understand that Apple has a different idea about the watch than you might have already seen. It's months until the thing starts selling, and could have very different capabilities, interface (and more battery life!) by the time that product starts showing up in shop display cases.
And, starting at $350 will be, by far, the cheapest.
(Gruber says to expect the $1200 guess for the Edition to be _way_ too low!)

 

[thefourthpope]

I certainly haven't run a representative international survey, but 50m seems awfully optimistic. All I can say is I want one. Not sure about the other 49,999,999.

the CSI team on CBS will wear it as a finger print scanner of the victim on the go

That's funny stuff! My wife is a death investigator and hates the show for how unrealistic it is. That's exactly the kind of thing they would do.

 

[4jasontv]

I say that you should read John Gruber's take on the Apple Watch.
http://daringfireball.net/2014/09/apple_watch

That was interesting. I hadn't considered retail shopping for a watch vs. a Mac, but he does ask a good question. I wonder though if the quiet shopping experience of a watch is a byproduct of the one customer to one sales representative that insurance companies prefer. If you flash mob a nice jewelry store they aren't going to take more out of the case, and in fact they may take even less out.

 

[Zippoe]

Tim cook and other who are working at apple are not stupid and i believe that they carefully calculated how much watches apple can sell. They could be wrong but not as much as you think. They will sell at least 40million watches in 2015

 

[MICHAELSD]

At $349+ Apple's going to be in for a disappointment.

 

[Tdadlani]

The watch only supports pairing with iPhone 5 or later, so would require a higher percentage of users to reach the target.

If that's true then you are correct. Didn't know that.

 

[Rizzm]

I agree with what you say about price, but it will be selling for less than $349 starting at launch.

What no one seems to be talking about is that Apple dropped the price of the iPhone 6 by $300. It's just that Apple is a master at hiding discounts on its products. So no one realizes it.

All four U.S. carriers are offering $200 off for trading in an iPhone 4 or greater. The 64GB model is now $100 less than last year. That comes to $300.

I say that with carefully hidden discounts it will be $199 at launch.

Not sure if stupid or troll.

 

[khabd]

They won't sell 50 million watches, no chance.

More like 5-10 million.

I am not sure if 50 million is possible either but I wouldn't doubt it either. What a lot of people aren't factoring in is the gifting ability and versatility of these watches. To go further the avg iphone user only has 1 iphone in use. The avg ipad user only has 1 ipad. Of course there may be 1 person out of 500 that have more than 1 ipad or iphone "in use". I think on avg apple watch user will have 1.5 watches. Some users will have 1 watch, 2 watches or even 3 watches and once in a blue moon there will be that user that has more than 3 watches. Its versatility lies in in which watch to wear and when. Also the gift-ability of the watch makes it more likely to sell to someone who will gift it vs an iphone or ipad for various reasons. The watch isn't tied to a cellphone plan, the watch is cheaper than an ipad and macbook, watches in general are better gifts than computer type of products for family and friends. These will sell like hotcakes during high school, middle school graduation. Lastly Apple hasn't released all of the details of the watch. I continue to see assumptions about the watch due to the fact it works in conjunction with an iphone 5 or higher. Until apple releases the details about what the watch can do without the phone then people are jumping the gun about how popular they will be.

I think I will buy (1-2) if the two things are true:
1. if I can listen to music via bluetooth without my phone when I go for a run or shooting hoops and
2. if the watch can collect data to later send to my iphone when it comes in close range of the phone

then I am a buyer

 

[Arndroid]

First generation iPhone sales in its first year? ~6 million

First generation iPad sales in its first year? ~15 million

First generation iWatch sales in its first year being 50 million? Nope.

Right based on your progression they will only do 37.5 million

 

[IJ Reilly]

The naysayers have consistently predicted that the newest Apple product won't sell. The iPad will flop because it is "just a big iPod." Remember that prediction?

Bookmark this thread, sports fans. The opportunity for ritual humiliation will come next year.

----------

And, starting at $350 will be, by far, the cheapest.
(Gruber says to expect the $1200 guess for the Edition to be _way_ too low!)

Nobody is talking about this yet to my knowledge, but I am guessing that the $349 entry level price will be without a band. With Apple offering so many band options, I think they will sell them separately, raising the real entry price closer to $400.

 

[QCassidy352]

Very well put.

IMHO smart watches are one iPhone variant too far. The 6.5 iPhone is a phablet. The iPad mini is a big iPhone and the standard iPad is a bigger iohone. No innovation there then.

But all the above are practical and cost effective.

The IWatch is too small to be a iPhone variant

You still need your iohone to get full functionality.

It's too expensive. And needs a wall socket nearby.

You shouldn't need to wait for it to come out to confirm it's a DOA product.

Apple had to produce something new. No matter what and as they'd not gone smaller. Only bigger than the iPhone (which is what Apple is now) they had to go the watch route.

It will be a Newtonian sized flop. And will cost them. But the blip won't affect them long term.

Go look up macrumors thread 500 some time. It's a great read, and basically no different from this thread, except that it's slamming a different one of apple's "overpriced" and "pointless" products that will "flop" in a year. I won't spoil the surprise by telling you which one of apple's collossal mistakes it refers to.

 

[Razeus]

It seems they are overestimating the iWatch by 10x.

It seems they have underestimated the iPhone 6 Plus by 10x.

 

[eac25]

As the most valuable technology company in the world, why does Apple have to depend on other companies for their components? Is Apple not capable of producing all these parts by themselves?

Taking that line of logic to the next level, should they open their own chip plants and aluminum mines? All companies depend on suppliers for components - Apple just chooses to focus on the design elements and let others do the components and assembly.

It may be a different line in the sand than other companies have - but as a business model it seems to be working for them pretty well overall, y'know, being the most valuable technology company in the world and all...

 

[luckysob]

50 million watches? Good luck sweet prince!

 

[Tanegashima]

If aliens come to Earth and ask me (as they do) what the meaning of the word optimism is. Ill point them to this thread title.

Good luck with that Apple.

IWatch with great disappointment I'm afraid.

Right.

I'm buying one on day one.

Also, these are watches, they should be making money on people's desire to have multiple watches for various occasions.

I smell they are going to sell the same watch for 3 to 5 years.

Here, the exterior is even more important than the tech components, albeit they should be updating them from time to time, to achieve new functionalities and lower power draw. Not to achieve more processing power, as the software can't grow very much out of the tiny LCD and signal processing... The main show should be on the iPhone... Like an iPod to a Mac.

 

[kas23]

I think the Apple Watch is going to come out pre-cannabilized by the iPhone, which ironically you need to have in order to use it. I can see it being popular with must-have gadget people, but not an average consumer with an iPhone. As for its looks, it's OK, but there are thousands of "dumb" watches that look much better and won't loose their appeal.

 

[Tycho24]

I haven't been smoking anything. But it is apparent from your post that you have been drinking the Apple Kool-Aid. You believe exactly what Apple wants you to believe, that Apple never discounts anything.

The original poster is correct & you're being foolish, sir.
This is NOT sold on a contract... it does NOT not have a SIM card, thus it can NOT have a carrier discount or subsidy. Further, Apple has NOTHING to do with carriers deciding to give trade ins... Other than making a device that is still desirable after a few years & thus has a genuine resale value. There are NO "cleverly hidden" by Apple discounts... that is honestly the silliest thing I've heard in weeks.

 

[deconstruct60]

... I think on avg apple watch user will have 1.5 watches.

Highly doubtful. The cheapest possible price is $349. The mainstream model is going to cost more than that.

the watch is cheaper than an ipad and macbook,

Not really on the iPad front. The non-retina Mini is $299. That is $50 cheaper than the mini. The non-retina Mini may get retired before the Apple Watch comes out but even at its introduction it was cheaper.

"... for a suggested retail price of $329 (US) for the 16GB model, ... "
http://www.apple.com/pr/library/2012/10/23Apple-Introduces-iPad-mini.html

Did folks run out and buy on average 1.5 iPad mini's? Were they mainstream Xmas stocking stuffers? No. This watch is going to be priced higher than that.

Are people going to buy on average 1.5 bands for the Apple watch? That is far more likely than the watch itself. The bands are going to be far more affordable than $329 a pop ( putting aside the likely crazy priced gold ones ). 50 million watch bands per year? That's believable.


The main Apple watch with steel case , sapphire screen, and non plastics band is likely going to be higher than the iPad Retina's current $399 price point.

Until apple releases the details about what the watch can do without the phone then people are jumping the gun about how popular they will be.

To an extent. But the price alone is going to an inhibitor to extremely high volume sales. 50 million per year is very high. If launches in Feburary time frame that is around 1M/wk for the rest of the year. That is crazy high for a product that is not that affordably priced.

I think I will buy (1-2) if the two things are true:
1. if I can listen to music via bluetooth without my phone when I go for a run or shooting hoops and

Minus the bluetooth headphones, the iPod shuffle does this at a sub $100 price point. The iPod Touch does this $100 less than the watch. Did folks buy multiples of those?

2. if the watch can collect data to later send to my iphone when it comes in close range of the phone

That doesn't particularly drive why would need more than one watch case. If one of them does that, then the other is simply redundant. If there was a different set of sensors then perhaps, but the completely redundant data capture is not particularly likely for folks to buy more than one in a single year (putting aside those damaged over time ).

If there is a some fashion, rather than functional, imperative then the assumption about price point likely falls apart. The "Edition" watches are likely priced in the nose-bleed high zone. I'm sure there are non average folks who buy multiple $1000 watches, but they don't number anywhere near the 10's of millions per year zone.

The huge problem in driving volume for the more expensive Apple watch is that they are quite likely not going to do anything more than the entry level one. It is a fashion difference, not a functional one. More than likely a "nicer band" that is vastly more affordable is going to add a fashion difference for a large fraction of folks far more so than the need to buy yet another case to do the exact same thing the more affordable case does.

----------

R
Also, these are watches, they should be making money on people's desire to have multiple watches for various occasions.

There is little good reason why folks who want multiple watches for various occasions need to buy multiple watches in one year. Multiple watches are typically bought over time; not in bundled, bulk purchases. Over a couple of years, the number of folks who buy multiple ones will go up and become significant. But in year one? Not really likely.


Throw in on top the watch case's ability to be accessorized by snap-on/snap-off bands.

I'm sure some few will line up and buy multiples that will primarily just sit in a storage drawer but that isn't going to drive 10's of millions of sales.

 

[Klae17]

I agree with what you say about price, but it will be selling for less than $349 starting at launch.

What no one seems to be talking about is that Apple dropped the price of the iPhone 6 by $300. It's just that Apple is a master at hiding discounts on its products. So no one realizes it.

All four U.S. carriers are offering $200 off for trading in an iPhone 4 or greater. The 64GB model is now $100 less than last year. That comes to $300.

I say that with carefully hidden discounts it will be $199 at launch.

Seriously? WTF are you talking about?

 

[deconstruct60]

According to the report, Apple is also expecting to ship five million units of the wearable device a month, and is aiming to sell more than 50 million Apple Watches in 2015.

Shipping 5M/month for first 2-3 months is far more likely. On launch there will be a supply/demand mismatch. There is likely going to be a shortage at the launch. Whether that lasts 4, 8, or 12 weeks is up to how big of a mismatch there is. So I can certainly see Apple going to LG and asking for 1-1.25M/week maximum capability.

But to sustain 1.25M/week for the whole year is bit much for the price points Apple is pointing toward. The "Edition" watches are likely so high priced that they will likely sell barely close to the 100k zone, let alone millions. Just how high Apple pushes the 'standard' watch is going to be a huge driving (or lack of drive if priced high) factor.

They probably will sell millions of the sport version at the entry price. The watch would be quite successful if Apple sold 20-30 million. 50 million watch bands? That would not be all that surprising. But 2-3 million per month would likely be closer to the post initial demand bubble sustained rate. That is still more than several billion $ in revenue bump ( ~$8B). 2M/month is twice as high as the iPad was in the first year. It isn't "low" at all.



Seem far more likely that folks in the supply chain forecast biz are taking the peak/max demand number and just multiplying by 12 months instead of what Apple is far more likely projecting. Apple doesn't have to (flexible contracts that match supply to demand ) or expect to buy that many over 10-12 months.

Over time a couple of significant factors are going to kick in. One, is that the "take my money" fans who buy anything new will fade from the demand pressure over time. They great at causing temporary bubbles and poor at sustained, long term demand. Second, the impact of having to have both a iPhone 5 (or better ) and watch are going to tamp down demand. It won't be very surprising to see more iPhone 5/5s/5c folks buy the watch than iPhone 6 folks. This year's 300+ discretionary tech spend budget will be on the new phone rather than new watch for more than a few. There will be a new, better watch in 2016 anyway.

 

[Breaking Good]

The original poster is correct & you're being foolish, sir.
This is NOT sold on a contract... it does NOT not have a SIM card, thus it can NOT have a carrier discount or subsidy. Further, Apple has NOTHING to do with carriers deciding to give trade ins... Other than making a device that is still desirable after a few years & thus has a genuine resale value. There are NO "cleverly hidden" by Apple discounts... that is honestly the silliest thing I've heard in weeks.

Wow! The Kool-Aid is stronger than even I could have imagined.

 

[Tycho24]

Wow! The Kool-Aid is stronger than even I could have imagined.

Hahahahahaha..... please dude, please just stop!
EVERY reply you've got has been to tell you that you're crazy or smoking something. Why are you steadfastly refusing to realize how tinfoil hat nutters you're actually being???
If you're right & Apple is planning a "secret" and "sneaky" sale... Umm, towards what end???????? Why?????
There has NEVER been a department store that has a sale, but keeps it a secret. There has NEVER been a car dealership that decided to "sneak" a discount to you without you knowing. Do you know why? Because that's INSANE!
Derp. Sales are to get more people to buy your product. You'd want to advertise heavily. What, pray tell would the end game be in giving users a discount, but tricking them into thinking that you did not?? Are you even hearing the idiotic words coming out of your mouth??
Ok- I must be "drinking koolaid" if I dont agree with you that some weirdo conspiracy exists whereupon Apple is TRYING to lose as much profit margin as possible & not even benefit from the positive press that this nonexistent goodwill gesture would garner.
You really are delusional, bro... I don't know what you're drinking; but it's DEFINITELY not koolaid.