You're confusing "correlation" for "cause and effect", again. Pirates want a lot of music. Therefore they get their music via multiple paid and unpaid channels. It think this leads to two conclusions a) If there was a magic dongle that make pirating impossible, the people who currently pirate would still buy about the same amount of music. Recall that pirates account for only 1 in 10 people. And, b) conversely if everybody were allowed to download all the music they wanted for free, well who would buy music? Why would anyone buy music if the there were two buttons "Download for Free" and "Pay Now"?
I'd just like to point out that you yourself have just told me that people who pirate would buy the same amount of music they do anyway if they couldn't, which shows that the one pirate download = one lost sale fallacy is just that. But I'll expand on that in a minute.
The success of Spotify - which isn't a theory or a study but a real world fact - shows that subscription services work. I know people who pirate a lot of music but have Spotify Premium because they find that it's much easier to pay a small amount every month and stream high quality music legally on their phone than it is to hunt for and download torrents, check they're legit, then send them to all their devices. Makes sense, right?
So, as I've said many times, all the creative industries need to do to beat 90% of piracy is offer an attractive legal online music service. Simple.
As a side note, I already mentioned earlier in the thread that I support independent artists, and these are people who will give out free copies of their music just to make themselves known, but I will pay anyway to support them. And though not everyone has that ethic, I'm sure many aside from me do.
I also think people would have to pay for music in order to keep the music coming, so they'd do it for that reason, too.
Regarding pirate download/lost sale fallacy. Show some evidence it's a fallacy, or some logic showing it's fallacy. Here's my logic. Two parts.
A) In a capitalist society, if I have something/some service to sell I offer it for a price. The consumer can accept my terms (negotiated perhaps) and pay me for it. Or not. If they take my "thing" or "service" without paying the agreed price, then they are stealing. It doesn't matter whether they are taking virtual copy without paying.... my offer stipulated that I get paid some sum of money or other tangible benefit. If I don't receive the money (or benefit) then I have been stolen from. Whether someone "steals" something is defined by the transaction, not by how much the seller has been victimized.
B) The only people who I can declare, with certainty, would not have paid me for my content are those people who have no interest in my content. The act of downloading my content automatically, and irrefutably proves, that this person has some interest in my content. And everyone who has at least a little interest in my content is a potential paying customer. Each potential paying customer then weighs the benefits of my content to the cost of acquiring of the content (in this case of pirate, the "cost" includes the trouble of finding the content in an alternative location, and the risk of getting into trouble). The easier it becomes to pirate, both from technological hurdles and personal ethics, the less money a pirate is willing to spend to acquire the content. That is - the seller loses 'paid' customers, but gains customers who are downloading for free.... i.e. pirates as customers.
Let me set up a scenario for you. Say you walked into a shop and everything was free. The shelves were full of various different forms of media and you could take as much as you could carry.
Logic says that, given this opportunity, you are a lot more likely to experiment trying new bands, artists, movies, games, or whatever it is, if you're not risking spending your money on something you might not like. After all, if you download something for free and you don't like it, you've not really lost anything, whereas if you pay for a bunch of media and you don't like it, you've wasted your hard earned cash.
Of course, if it turns out you do really like a band, you would then check out some of their other work, and you're likely to buy it to support that band so they can keep making music.
So, that is the logic. You're a lot more likely to try things you'd never have paid for if you can get them for free, and if you do like them, you're likely to support them. This is what the studies back up, and this is also a reason Spotify works so well - it's great for free and legal music discovery.