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Low OLED Panel Yield Could Cap 'iPhone 8' Availability at 4 Million Units at Debut
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This type of forecasts is what fuels up mass consumer hysteria and folks sleeping in dodgy tents in front of Apple stores. And the funny bit is they manage to pull it every single major release. iPhone is still not a life support system and everybody who wants one can get it right now in different colours, sizes, etc.
I don't think fingerprint sensors work from behind the display.
More likely it would be integrated into the display itself, and if so, then perhaps low yield is the problem with supply.
You won't skip it. Wait until after the Fall Keynote and once they debut this new iPhone, you know you're going to want it. The hype will retake you over. Apple is brilliant at that. These rumors, some of them at least, have zero reliability depending on the source and you have to carefully choose what you believe and read on here. I don't Buy into hype, as Am I rather more intrigued if you will.
I don't think Apple actually make anything. They design and market them - they pay other companies to actually make the components and manufacture their products.
Supply is based on production.
Production is based on factories.
If there is one factory on Earth that builds OLED panels... Apple could build another factory. That would double production. Or build a third factory... and triple production.
Apple can afford it. They have more money than any other company on the planet.
I know Apple hires other companies to manufacture their products. But Apple will need OLED screens for the rest of our lives.
If supply remains a problem... maybe Apple should throw money at that problem.
In this case it doesn't appear to work that way. They are purchasing from Samsung and dependent on Samsung's capacity. As far as I know, when it comes to iPhones, Apple doesn't outright own any factories. When we think of Apple factories making iPhones, most of the time we are really thinking about Foxconn and Pegatron, who also assemble products for other companies. Other iPhone components are made by other manufacturers like TSMC.
Apple has a lot of influence but does come up against practical limits with Samsung, who keeps an eye on its own demand for OLED display.
Oh nevermind I see what you're saying...you're talking about what they should do long term. I wonder if that's something they don't want to do because they don't ever want to be directly responsible for working conditions in these countries where it is challenging to monitor such things.
I said Apple hires other companies. So the problem gets shifted to those other companies.
If Apple needs 200 million OLED panels every year... and Samsung can't currently supply that... then Samsung should build another factory.
Apple wants to buy more screens... and Samsung should want to sell more screens.
We always say Apple is leaving money on the table by not having enough iPhones at launch.
Well... Samsung is also leaving money on the table by not having enough components available for Apple to buy.
This can be solved by creating more components.
As a sidenote... why hasn't Apple gotten into the component business? They seems to be getting into everything else: music, app stores, banking, medical records, etc.
Like I said before... Apple will need LCD/OLED screens for the rest of our lives. They should be in charge of their own destiny with regards to arguably the most important component in their devices. They don't have to sell them to anyone else... they need them all for themselves.
Yeah I had added to the end of my post to say I saw what you were saying. I missed your point initially and then caught it. I don't know. Like I said the only thing I can think of is that they don't want to be directly responsible for working conditions in any factories in China. That's just a guess and a poorly informed one at that.
Google is also having problems as a result of not owning any means of production. They were dependent on HTC for production of the Pixel and could not meet demand at all. Some of their customers are hoping they buy manufacturing capacity somehow, eventually.
Maybe so, but the engineering and development cycle Apple uses starts about 2 years in advance but individual parts are only finalised about 6-8 months in advance, and in particular in this case the display due to the added features in and under it. So they may have given a verbal as to quantities and maybe even a deposit as Apple often does to lower run costs, but as far as a finalised part ready to mass-produce, nope.
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Because for stock purposes Apple is all about margin and growth. They delegate low margin items to vendors, who are more than happy to not be the very largest company in the entire world.
Have to agree with others that this sounds like BS. OLED panel production reached critical mass in 2016 where cost of OLED was actually lower than LCD. With OLED so commonplace these days you'll find it in even ~$200 phones like the 5.5" Xiaomi Redmi Pro.
http://www.mobileindustryreview.com/2016/03/news-oled-displays-cheaper-than-lcd.html
http://www.mobileindustryreview.com/2016/03/news-oled-displays-cheaper-than-lcd.html
Sure.
But if Apple can't sell enough iPhones because those vendors can't make enough components... is that a good thing?
I'd love Apple to grow too. But Apple will never sell 300 million iPhones a year with their current suppliers.
So... I was merely suggesting that Apple take some of their massive cash hoard (bigger than any company on Earth) and improve their situation.
Somehow.
If it means spending a couple billion dollars on your own factory to guarantee you have all the parts you need... I don't think the shareholders will mind.
I'm sure Tim Cook knows about supply chain buffers. You order earlier and store them in a warehouse for later use. Down side to that is you need money to buy the parts in advance and money to get a warehouse. But Apple has lots of money. Maybe they should use some of it instead of hoarding it. Takes money to make money.
A convenient excuse for making just a handful of the ultra expensive devices at launch. Also drives up the demand because there's always a bunch of hipsters who just have to have the newest and coolest device as soon as possible.
I'd love to believe it will actually have a radically better battery life and no other stupid hinderances like the removal of the 3,5mm headphone jack compared to the current model, but I just can't force myself to believe it. Everything they've done with the latest iPhone/mac models says they don't care about usability. The force touch in all devices makes life more difficult without adding anything but a gimmick, the new menu button in iPhone is horrible to use compared to a real button, the keyboard on new macbook pros, the lack of ports, etc.
There used to be a time I didn't think twice recommending an iPhone to all my elderly relatives. No more. I've got enough trouble managing the force touch and the stupid menu button myself. Luckily I can stretch the discomfort a bit further with the 6+ and 2015 rMBP but I will not recommend those to anyone who 'just wants to use' their devices. Writing this on a 2017 macbook pro which I'm returning tomorrow. I decided to give it another try. Still not a fan of these. Crappy keyboard, touchpad that's half the time on the way because it's too big (which in itself doesn't give any additional benefit) and the #€#"=)(!€&"!/%&(! adapter hell.. sometimes I feel like screaming.
I'd love to believe it will actually have a radically better battery life and no other stupid hinderances like the removal of the 3,5mm headphone jack compared to the current model, but I just can't force myself to believe it. Everything they've done with the latest iPhone/mac models says they don't care about usability. The force touch in all devices makes life more difficult without adding anything but a gimmick, the new menu button in iPhone is horrible to use compared to a real button, the keyboard on new macbook pros, the lack of ports, etc.
There used to be a time I didn't think twice recommending an iPhone to all my elderly relatives. No more. I've got enough trouble managing the force touch and the stupid menu button myself. Luckily I can stretch the discomfort a bit further with the 6+ and 2015 rMBP but I will not recommend those to anyone who 'just wants to use' their devices. Writing this on a 2017 macbook pro which I'm returning tomorrow. I decided to give it another try. Still not a fan of these. Crappy keyboard, touchpad that's half the time on the way because it's too big (which in itself doesn't give any additional benefit) and the #€#"=)(!€&"!/%&(! adapter hell.. sometimes I feel like screaming.
I find it hilarious that every time a new iPhone launches people complain about artificial scarcity as a marketing strategy.
The post by Jean-Louis Gassée (sourced via Daring Fireball) illustrates the scale at which iPhone manufacturing takes place, and the thing is every time the iPhone gets a new number suffix, Apple pushes the manufacturing envelope beyond what was done in the past, and at a scale that is unmatched by any other smartphone maker.
If you don't want to worry about getting the new and shiny on day one, stick to the 'S' releases. It'll probably save you the hassle of dealing with manufacturing teething problems faced by first-adopters as well.
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It is difficult to guarantee the supply of something that has not been manufactured before (Edit: Embedded Touch ID in the OLED screen) unless you delay the product to some distant time (e.g., 12 months to launch). This goes against the idea of maintaining product secrecy and surprise, since competitors will use the information to come up with their own version of the same thing. In addition, this goes against the Just In Time manufacturing goals that all major companies strive for nowadays.
Edit2: minor grammar fixes
The post by Jean-Louis Gassée (sourced via Daring Fireball) illustrates the scale at which iPhone manufacturing takes place, and the thing is every time the iPhone gets a new number suffix, Apple pushes the manufacturing envelope beyond what was done in the past, and at a scale that is unmatched by any other smartphone maker.
If you don't want to worry about getting the new and shiny on day one, stick to the 'S' releases. It'll probably save you the hassle of dealing with manufacturing teething problems faced by first-adopters as well.
[doublepost=1498619388][/doublepost]
Sure.
If it means spending a couple billion dollars on your own factory to guarantee you have all the parts you need... I don't think the shareholders will mind.
It is difficult to guarantee the supply of something that has not been manufactured before (Edit: Embedded Touch ID in the OLED screen) unless you delay the product to some distant time (e.g., 12 months to launch). This goes against the idea of maintaining product secrecy and surprise, since competitors will use the information to come up with their own version of the same thing. In addition, this goes against the Just In Time manufacturing goals that all major companies strive for nowadays.
Edit2: minor grammar fixes
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Just in Time has failed them... as Apple never has enough iPhones for the initial rush.
It's not necessarily a bad problem for Apple to have though... too many people wanting your product on day one... or in the first week or month. Let's hope people still want them when they are finally in stock.
It could be worse.
BTW... I wish Apple could "just in time" me some AirPods...
Just in Time has failed them... as Apple never has enough iPhones for the initial rush.
It's not necessarily a bad problem for Apple to have though... too many people wanting your product on day one... or in the first week or month. Let's hope people still want them when they are finally in stock.
It could be worse.
BTW... I wish Apple could "just in time" me some AirPods...
Well, Just In Time is not from the consumer's perspective, it is from the company's perspective.
Just In Time only works after production has ramped up. At the beginning, teething pains usually results in demand exceeding available supply (assuming a desirable product). Of course, Marketing takes advantage of these actual (real) issues and make hay with it.
To me the reason is, apple isn't sure about how many will be sold, so they limit it to 4 Millions while bringing a lieing news out and paying for, about the others guilt in production of the oleds, not beeing able to produce in off!
I'm actually surprised they would even bother with a 7s / 7s+. I mean what features would they add to make people want to upgrade?.... wireless charging?, better camera?, certainly not OLED. And the charging and camera upgrades would cannibalize the new OLED model.
It would seem to make more sense if all their efforts went into concentrating on the newly designed OLED model, whatever it ends up being called, and keep the 7 / 7+ as their lower tier models, discontinuing the 6s / 6s+.
If most of the speculation of the newly designed OLED model materializes, I believe that phone will shatter Apple's sales records the world over (China especially, where #8 is considered lucky), and Apple will make a killing selling these units even at premium prices compared to prior models, while they can comfortably keep selling the very capable 7 / 7+ and SE models to those looking for a more economic model or a smaller screen size. And with the coming iOS 11 upgrade, even the older line-up will shine.
One flagship model, and a mere few superseded models would minimize fragmentation, and make a purchasing decision that much simpler for many people..... just my thoughts.
The cost of low quality oled is less than high quality LCD. I'll take a high quality LCD.
Money is clearly not the problem. Sometimes there are limits to what money can solve. It takes time to set up a new factory, takes expertise, you need to ramp up etc. I'm sure Apple is doing everything they can to make get as many high quality OLED displays produced in time. It just might not be enough.