Many people were finding it hard to believe that Apple would use a Tick Tock update cycle for their chips.
It's silly to extrapolate Apple's ultimate plans from two data points.
In particular Apple has been screwed over by
- covid, then
- China lockdowns, then
- TSMC (possibly) delaying N3 by a quarter (the exact details on the timing are unclear, as is when Apple knew about the dates).
To my eyes A15/M2 is the expected "second chip on N5" design – minor tweaks and improvements to what was already there and with a primary focus on improving energy.
A16 (and M2 Pro/Max) are the catchups, the chips that shipped on N4 (very mildly improved N5) because N3 was not ready and so the real successor CPU designs (targeting many more transistors available) can't yet ship.
The only unclear issue was whether M2 Pro/Max would use the A15 or A16 cores and that's still unclear... (The main difference between them seems to be that A16 hits higher frequencies than A15, so ???)
We can see Apple's longer term plans more clearly in the patent record. There we see recent patents for things like a new coherence protocol, new ways to distribute the memory address space over LARGE numbers of memory controllers, new NoCs (Networks on Chip), new technology for hypervisors and associated TLB handling.
These are all technologies that are of substantially more value to large chips not phone/MacBook Air-sized chips... But they are also technologies that are not easy to get right the first time...
My current guesses are that
- there remains a plan for serious CPU domination at all performance levels, from watch to high-end-desktop to cloud (inside Apple's data warehouses)
- this plan (because Apple is not dumb, unlike a certain company named I*t*l) has Plan B components at every stage, to deal with contingencies like TSMC slipping a node, or Apple itself taking longer with some aspect of a design than expected
- this plan includes a lot of "parallel" "in-hardware" testing. What I mean by this is that they don't make a big deal about this but Apple has frequently, in earlier designs, slipped in some aspect of a future design in a way that includes a fallback. For example they shipped A10 as having big+small cores (so that they could test the small core design) but in a way that could have been shipped, one way or another, if there were issues with the small core design. I think A11 had the small cores as 64b only so, again, they could test dropping 32b support in a way that was not catastrophic if they made a mistake (I forget the exact timing details but it was around there).
So my *guess* is that there is more going on internally in both A16 and M2 Max/Pro than meets the eye. While the CPUs may look like the boring old A15 CPUs (which in turn looks mostly like a boring old A14, just somewhat improved indirect branch prediction and somewhat optimized sizes for things like ROB and number of physical registers), just running at a higher frequency, I would not be surprised if they have actually implemented some aspects of these new ideas (ie the new coherence protocol or the new hypervisor TLB stuff, or even the new NoCs).
If there are some problematic issues, these can be discovered in a context where it's not catastrophic (just never activate that new functionality) so that they can be updated and are ready for being debuted where they matter, on the M2 (or M3?) Ultra design.
(It's even possible, who knows?, that this is exactly what has already happened once. We got a first round of A15 and M2, some of the most advanced "being tested" functionality was found to have a flaw or two, and M2 Pro/Max were delayed a few months to update them with a fixed version of this functionality, where in turn it will be tested before the next round of Ultra.)
Remember we always need to look at the big picture. We have become so used to Apple as this unstoppable SoC-designing machine that we forget that M1 was the FIRST version of a desktop level design, and M1 Ultra the first version of a chiplet-style design. Yes, Apple got many things right this first time, but getting things right is not the same thing as getting them OPTIMAL. In particular M1 Max GPU scaling was mildly disappointing, and M1 Ultra GPU scaling was clearly disappointing (along with other weirdness like the inability to make use of the second NPU present on an M1 Ultra). Much of what I have described is part of the infrastructure to fix this, to improve this scaling across Max, Ultra (and up to the mythical Extreme). But Apple is not Intel or IBM; they haven't been building these large-scale NoCs and coherency protocols for years – hence the need (IMHO) to test their designs via A-series and M2/Pro/Max in readiness for the large ultimate targets.
It's interesting (for example) and disappointing, but not surprising, that we don't see a Metal benchmark accompanying the M2 Max CPU benchmark, which might allow us to see whether the M2 Max GPU scaling is in fact better than we saw with M1 Max.
That's what I will be looking for once these things become public...