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Was just in a similar situation and decided to bite the bullet, in my case with a Mac Studio though. Both the mini and the studio show up occasionally in the refurb store for a near immediate delivery so you get to save ~15% to boot.
I ended up replacing a total of three devices, two of which were losing app support being 8 year old with 2.
 
Mac obsoletes after 7 years. So 18+7=25. So how is it still getting updates?
Apple's "Obsolete" status refers to hardware. 2018 Mini is listed as "Vintage". It is supported with macOS up to 15.x (Sequoia) which is still getting updates and will for another 18 months. https://support.apple.com/en-us/102772

The 7 years you quote refers to time since Apple stopped distributing them for sale - not the model's first sale date. But Apple does not always keep to that rule. The 2018 Mini was discontinued in 2023 - on that basis it should have until 2023+5=2028 to become vintage and a further 2 years before obsolete. But the Apple list does have footnote for the Mini 2018 which says "Check with an Apple-authorized service channel to determine the service status of this product." even though listed a Vintage.
 
I just looked on Apple's website and the basic M4 Mac mini has an arrival date of April 27 for in store pickup and April 20 - 27 for delivery. The same goes for the Mac Studio.
 
I know that MacOS and iPadOS are a little different when it comes to how long they are supported with OS upgrades.

The last OS upgrade for the 2018 Mac mini is Sequoia. From what I could find, iPadOS 26 will be the last upgrade for the 2018 iPad Pro.

With the 18 mini, that is the last of the Intel chips and the 18 iPad Pro doesn't support AI. Those two factors into how long they are supported.

That is 6 years for the 18 Mini and 7 years for the iPad Pro. And that is going by the actual year they were released. And if I remember correctly, it was 6 years for the 2010 Mac mini.

There are always exceptions to the 6-7 year period for OS upgrades. But 6-7 years is the average.
 
I think the cutoff will be after macOS 27 is released. IIRC Apple typically updates the OS for 2 years after a final release. Although it is possible it might still get a rare update.
2018 only takes Sequoia. So updates will stop when 28 comes out.
 
... and theyre back to $499 at Micro Center , with 25+ in stock at the local one

Ive been looking for a Mac mini so been eyeing the prices, guess they opened the other warehouses where all the M4 minis were being stashed...
 
The downside to Micro Center is that they don't ship. The closest Apple Store and closest Micro Center are 1 1/2 hours away from me. That's probably a good thing for my wallet though.
 
... and theyre back to $499 at Micro Center , with 25+ in stock at the local one

Ive been looking for a Mac mini so been eyeing the prices, guess they opened the other warehouses where all the M4 minis were being stashed...
Amazon regularly sells it at that price. I've seen them sell them as low as $469
 
I upgraded from my M1 (base) Mini to an M4 Pro Mini. Main reasons to do so were the availability of the Pro processor with more cores and the larger memory available with M4 Pro. Had the options for the Mini been limited to the base model with the same memory as the M1, I would have waited. We're no longer in the era where computer power is increasing by a factor of 5 to 10 every five years, so my future upgrades will likely be driven by lack of software support for older systems.
 
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