In consideration of the fact that Metal offers improvements to performance in a variety of ways, I think for now it would be exceedingly difficult to make any kind of accurate predictions about performance in any particular game whether it be a reworked existing game or a new release. There's just a lot of variables in play. I am basing this view on this quote from Apple's own statement about what Metal brings to the table:
"Metal speeds system-level graphics rendering by up to 50 percent,4 as well as making it up to 40 percent more efficient.5 Metal allows the main processor and graphics processor to work more effectively together, boosting high-performance apps. And Metal is designed to be great for games, improving draw call performance by up to 10x and paving the way for new levels of realism and detail.6"
The rest of that little bit and the footnotes can be read here:
http://www.apple.com/osx/elcapitan-preview/
You'll need to scroll down quite a ways to get to that section.
So until we see some existing games upgraded to take advantage of Metal there's really nothing to compare yet. Also, I would guess only select leading titles will even get that attention. For the most part it will just be new titles built from the start with this tech where we see it. So we won't have any way to know really how it would have run without Metal vs with Metal.
That's all fine. I am just saying I think it is premature to form any kind of conclusions just yet as really it is all pure speculation based on only one known point which is that it is reasonable to expect a good performance increase across the board for games using Metal. Even there, we all define "good performance" differently to some degree.
As I've said before, I am certainly looking forward to seeing what kind of games we can play and the settings we can get on them with smooth, playable performance. I just wouldn't have a clue based on what is known now if I was to pull a game out of my hat and try to speculate on what FPS increase I might see with Metal. Not only that but the tendency of many of us will probably continue to be balancing what graphics features and resolution we play at while maintaining a steady, smooth FPS. Again, lots of variables there so not an easy thing to speculate on in terms of real world performance.
Game benchmarks on various Mac hardware for Metal titles will certainly be interesting, the best ones in my opinion being something like World of Warcraft which Blizzard has stated is going to be upgraded to utilize Metal in a future patch. I'd think that based on that their other games will too. Benchmarks of those games before and after on a Mac system would at least give some idea of what real FPS gain was to be had in that particular case.
It's worthy of note as most of you know I'm sure, what happens and is shown in one game really isn't all that telling by itself. It's trends across a good number of releases that will give a much better picture of what Metal really means to performance of OS X native games.
For now, with no disrespect intended toward anyone, I am not buying into any sort of ideas about expectations for x FPS in this game or that because the data is not existent to support those figures. You just can't extrapolate that out of stated best case percentages of multiple variables by Apple yet.
All that said, I am not a developer of Mac games so if Edwin or Blair were to come along and provide further insight into this and what to expect, I would believe them. They would know better than anybody what this means in real world terms although I wonder if they would not be hesitant to make any forecasts either until they have some code written and built using this to test for themselves. And then there is probably an NDA at this point anyway so I imagine we'll have to wait on any news like that.
I forgot to mention that regardless of what one might think of the chosen game by Epic to demo Metal at the keynote, one thing was certain. Epic pointed out that they observed major gains to performance in the game being shown when built with Metal. That game might not have looked all that impressive visually, but the demands on the system are which meant it actually was a good demonstration of Metal. I think too many people just looked at the graphics style without taking that into account even though during the demo it was mentioned how much was going on concurrently to put all those pixels up there.