why 4% marketshare
NOTE: PC is used as a neutral term here just denoting Personal Computer ... I would not let them to rob me a good term, even if they have tarnished it
This is in no way a scientific justification, but there are a few reasons why it has been very hard to get above 4% marketshare:
1. Being a lamb. Most MS users are 'lambs', followers: it is the easy path in a sense. You don't make decisions, you follow the crowd (leader). Many people are afraid to part from the crowd, specially in areas where things change fast or where they do not have much information ... I know of many guys who would buy a BMW but would be afraid to buy a Mac (weasels!)... I am a lamb in many areas, but not in computing ... 😉
2. Available points of purchase and exposure to Macs. Any mom and pop could open a PC little shop buying parts and assembling PCs ... (I think it is no longer much profitable as the margins are getting too low for low volume operation ...). Long gone are the days, in many places, when you used Macs (apples) at school, in Math or Computing, before your teens. (iPods, in a sense, are changing that ... halo)
3. IT in the enterprise. Most PCs in any 'shop' are MS machines, and they are in part because that is what IBM's design was targetted to serve: cheap hw in volume with office apps ... Most computing jobs are in (working for) enterprises, so a Mac culture there is not useful and can even be 'detrimental' as quality standards are much lower and you can be seen as snob or self-righteous 🙄 ...
4. Not that many people are 'creative' in the abstract sense. They use their PC to consume, not to create anything (except reports and clone cds) and Windows can be an 'adecuate' consumer experience for that ...
5. Most people do NOT pay for most of their sw. If they did they would realize a Windows machine is not that cheap ... (There is some more free usable sw in Winland lately).
6. Being a Mac user (in a Win world) requires being more 'active' (but much less active in the tiresome maintenance area ...). There is less people (close) around to talk to, less games (IMHO, most Hw-intensive games should be played in specialized hw, aka gaming consoles ...) ... If you are not 'online' (at least outside US) you should not buy a Mac (At last, most people are getting online ...).
7. The kind of pressures that a big player can exert in tech are much higher than those in other industries ... A paranoid (comic book stuff!) example: if Bill got angry and decided he was tired and done with ingrate computer users he could release something that could possibly bring 80% of computers to their knees (OTOH, maybe that was Windows Millenium 🙄 ).
My humble perceptions that point that this is changing:
1. After having had several computers and, if you have tried a Mac (and this is a big IF), people realize it is better. Since PCs appeared in mass volume (late 80s early 90s), people would have had at least 4 machines, so consumers are a bit more computer-savvy.
2. A commodity market. The difference between buying a just passable PC for 900 and a good one for 3000 in the early 90s is not the same as now : 300 vs 1500 . Current 'good' price is not as 'sensitive' as it was, people now realize the very short lifespan of a passable machine. People bought PCs then, in part, because people told them they should have one. People spend more time with PCs now and realize they are a tool they use everyday. To just print some stuff and do some spreadsheets any PC could do, but people do much more now with their PCs and they care more about their longer day experience.
3. Even if you do not have much direct exposure to clients (media and retail presence) you can leverage on some 'tricks' (Apple is an expert at this): internet, word of mouth, status symbols, satisfied customers, key figures in some areas ... I like the new pub of Apple (sadly only through the net): it is going from we are great and different which can be perceived as snob, to simply 'we are better, can we help you?' not avoiding comparison and integration and inviting people to try ...
4. Many people are tired of many undelivered (or very late delivered) promises from MS (Vista, security, stability and .NET ...). Mac leverages on Unix and offers a great user experience that Linux cannot easily deliver.
5. Buying a Mac next year (Leopard) will not be that much of a jump for users to make (For developers with Unix experience it is not that big since OS X): LESS risk than with PPC, virtualization, be able to run Win easily when needed. An iMac with a Leopard window with XP is really a sight I long to see in many places where Macs would be anathema ...
6. With more presence online and the right push of services (iTunes with TV serials for EU and 1 year .Mac account (with tutorials) with a hw purchase) in other countries (growing the online community globally) the mac presence online will recover.
7. And last but not least, the iPod Video PDA Apple is going to launch at Xmas 😛 will increase the halo effect.
There are indeed some risks involved, but Apple is a company that does not take really that many risks anymore, they go little by little, by increments, as price, technology and niche market opportunities appear (but they never stop). Some may not like it, but the late 90s were a lesson to everybody 🙁 ...
Indeed I would like to have Leopard, all apps Universal, high end Intel hw, Xcode 3, iPod PDA and who knows now and watch the sonic wave (and the lawsuits 😀 ...).
There is a risk that I worry about, but is not so easy to explain (maybe it also justifies in part not having gone above 5%, though a 'kind of monopoly' explains it better ...). This is not the 'Macs are gonna dissapear and Apple is going to sell toasters' kind of stuff, but goes a bit in that line ...
It seems (but I do not know) everything has to go through Steve. He is getting older and the rate of change in x86 world is faster and more competitive. Also Apple seems prepared to diversify in more markets: mobile, pda, consumer media ...
Perhaps the type of leadership Apple has that allows it to innovate and give a high quality-experience without much risk (assured 4% of market share, great market value, high quality sw & hw integration, low repair numbers ...), will have to transform into something a bit less centralized to allow it to enter those 'new' markets, without sacrificing quality, and being able to keep the pace of change ... But I am way out of line here as, to evaluate this, I would need to know much more about how the tech market works 'up there' and the insides of Apple ... Maybe Apple is gonna develop some more alliances ... Job postings and patent fillings are all I can see 😕