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Mac Shipments Continue to Rise Amid Surge in Demand for PCs [Updated]
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Not for nothing, but while they are on top, like other PC manufacturers (in particular, Dell), Lenovo did to one of my previous employers what Dell did to my wife with her laptop. It took 2 months to also be delivered, but that also shaved 2 months off of the warranty. And when that warranty lapsed, not even 2 weeks after, both the Dell and the Lenovo went belly up, with no way of getting them back. It was totally hardware related, but not HDD/SSD related, so I was able to pull the drive and get everything off of it. But other than that, once their warranties were up, it was only a short matter of when (and usually less than a fortnight) they would die.
Contrast that to her first Mac, which was the 2008 15" MBP, it lasted 7 years. My mid-2011 MBA is still going (I'm posting this on it), and it just hit 10 years.
Demand is one thing, but not at the one need to take into account reliability versus cost. In our case, the Apple tax paid for 3 sets of Dells in her case and 5 sets of Lenovos in my case, and that's just in the warranties alone.
BL.
Apple doesn’t have to. Midrange business are already on or moving to cloud services. And the massive data center providers, Amazon, Alibaba, Microsoft, Google, et.al. are all busy designing their own server CPUs and ML silicon. And Enterprises with in-house needs are still buying IBM mainframes, who again designs their own processor chips.
Previously, many companies preferred Intel servers, because that’s what was inside the laptops that all their developers were using. Guess what happens when developers start using M1 and similar new laptops.
And the PC gamer market is way too tiny to support Intel. That could send them the way of Atari.
Yes, this is true. The largest portion of the desktop market is driven by cost-benefit. Apple offers three kinds of products that do not fit this: (i) the Mac mini, a small form factor desktop computer; (ii) the iMac, an all-in-one desktop computer; and (iii) the Mac Pro, a workstation.You can just put a period right thereI’d be quite surprised if Apple was to even entertain a notion of completing in the desktop market! Their cash cow is mobile, Air and MBP. And, they’ve been quite content selling in the low double digits of millions of units per year for awhile now.
Apple would be competitive if it were to offer full-size desktop computers aiming at providing the best bang for the buck. It would have to be both more powerful and cheaper than a laptop and preferably offer upgradeable parts. This is not what Apple does: the Mac mini ($699 without monitor, keyboard, or mouse) and iMac ($1299), now with the M1 chip, are of poor value compared to a similar MacBook Air ($999). This possibility seems to collide with Apple's business and even its philosophy.
The desktop market is a shrinking one (or at least it was before the pandemic) and it probably does not offer the same margins as others to make it worth for Apple cannibalizing the mobile market. It is not happening.
More importantly, as folks like Gartner has been predicting, users, by a large margin, prefer mobile solutions. Even if Apple were to make lower priced desktops, people are already VERY used to the idea of having their system with them wherever they are. And, in a LOT of cases, with built in internet access (as with the iPads).
Yes, they are. The only way to attract people to desktops is by offering them more power for a lower price as compensation for the trade-off of not being able to carry the device around. Still, mobile devices are becoming increasingly more powerful and more affordable to the point it simply does not even make sense to most people to have a desktop.
In the future, the only ways I see to have a significant market for consumer desktops is to (i) offer high-end upgradeable desktops for gamers at a price competitive with latest-generation consoles or (ii) offer desktops for a very low price that it becomes a no-brainer. And Apple is not going to make the iMac compete with the Playstation 5, nor it is going to offer the Mac mini at $99.
I never understood why Apple does not push for a larger market share. I really believe MacOS is superior to Windows. They only have 15% or so of the market, there is so much room to grow. In a beautiful world we will have 30% Windows, 30%Linux, 30% Mac. Option and competition is key.
Yea... no one will buy $1000 minimum laptops when the competition are selling $300 . A lot of the sales are coming from 3rd world countries where they really can't afford even the $300 one its just because of the pandemic.
Yea... no one will buy $1000 minimum laptops when the competition are selling $300 . A lot of the sales are coming from 3rd world countries where they really can't afford even the $300 one its just because of the pandemic.
Apple IS pushing for larger marketshare, they’re just not using the Mac to do it.
If we have 30% Windows, 30% Linux, and 30% Mac, what would the rest 10% use? ChromeOS?
A Mac is absolutely unaffordable for many people in many countries. According to the World Bank, the average GDP per capita in the world is $10,925.70 (2020). The GDP per capita in the U.S. is $63,543.60 (2020). Buying a $999 MacBook Air costs 9.14% of the total yearly income of the average world citizen, while costs only 1.57% of the average U.S. citizen.
Yes, many people in the world who live in poverty are unable to buy any computer at all, no matter how cheap they may be. Still, even in the European Union, another rich region in the globe, where the GDP per capita is $33,927.70, the average citizen would have to disburse 2.94% of its total yearly income just to buy the cheapest Mac laptop.
Apple keeping its prices at the current level is probably the main reason why it will not increase the Mac market share.
yes but apple can offer an entry model, like they used to have an eMac. Apple used to be the premium choice, as in higher quality computer. Now its the LV of electronics. People think you are "chic" to own an Apple. This was not the idea, the idea was it was the better PC. I doubt any school even think of install an all Apple system for their students.
Well, Apple can offer an entry-level model. But the fact is that even the entry-level model Apple currently offers is not at a compelling price for many people in many countries. A Mac is something a school would not consider, especially with Chromebooks costing five times less.
"PC demand will conintue to decline"
...anonymous Wall Street analyst, Jan 1, 2020.
If I was to bet I would agree with you, PC sales will decline in the next two years. But if the last 1.5 years has shown anything it is that projections are a best guess wrapped in complex spreadsheet wrapping paper.
Price definitely limits market share and potential upside. The lower priced space will make up a substantial number of the overall share number. And regions that have less discretionary spending power must have the lower priced options to have any options at all. (an aside, the EU average includes the lesser per capita eastern side, lowering the higher per capita western side).
This is in large part why Android proliferates -- because there are low cost smartphone options for regions that must have that low cost option(Xaomi a recent beneficiary). It is also why often inexpensive Chromebooks are seeing huge growth. Microsoft must feel the heat of Chromebook. Mac market share is mostly steady, it's Windows getting hit by Chromebook.
Considerations of the cost of making a device isn't necessarily going to be what determine's the asking price. If a company can monetize the data of the purchaser or there are other forms of expected revenue due to the purchase (Microsoft with X box as an example -- very low on initial hardware purchase, make the money from the software and accessories), they can sell at cost or below cost. Apple's ability to sell at or below cost for Mac is very limited, their biz plan doesn't allow great post purchase monetization except accessories.
Also, Chromebook example, there are a dozen Chromebook hardware manufacturers. This will reduce cost of making it as well as cause downward pricing pressure. Manufacturers will accept very slim margins in the hope volume makes up for it (or those post sale monetization possibilities). These are things MAC cannot compete on and it makes it have a very distinct market share ceiling.
So while Apple could hope to target a 15% share (with that share needing to be around 20% in developed nations to even have a shot), I don't think it is realistic to think Macs could gain the kind of market share that Chromebook is very much trending towards. Of course what happens in two years is an unknown -- I'm speaking just current likelihoods.
Of course Apple wants to sell more products and have a larger market share, but they are not going to do so at the expense of profits. If people want more affordable laptops, there's always refurbished or 2nd hand options like what they do with iPhones.
I have a particular view on this by being a citizen of a developing country (Brazil). The computer and smartphone markets are nothing alike.
A smartphone is a piece of desire and status in Brazil. The 64 GB iPhone 12 costs $1,600 and the 512 GB iPhone 12 Pro Max costs $2,800. This is a lot for a country in which the GPD per capita is an estimated $7,000 in 2021. A product sold at double the price of the U.S. market for a population that has roughly 10% of the purchasing power. Imagine if the 64 GB iPhone 12 cost $16,500 in the U.S., that is the kind of impact to the pocket.
The iPhone is still popular, but the majority of the population uses Android phones, some of which cost as low as $200. There are reasonable Android phones for sale between $300 and $500, which is still far less than an iPhone SE 2 (around $750). And even the high-end Samsung S21 is more reasonably priced at around $850.
An Android phone can perform similar tasks to an iPhone. It may not be so fast, the camera may not be so good, it does not run iOS, but the basics are all there. You can make and receive calls, take photos, browse the Internet, check e-mails, play games, run apps for anything you may want. And there are more options, with different features, at different price points. The bottom line is, people may opt for either an iPhone or an Android, and they tend to go with the latter for economic reasons.
A computer is different. It is not a status symbol that you can take out of your pocket just to show off. It is a device which is widely used, mainly for businesses, for over a quarter of a century now. Here in Brazil, people are used to Windows PCs.
Macs have had some popularity, especially pushed by the iPhone, but they are not really a thing. And they are truly expensive: the M1 MacBook Air starts at $2,600, and the cheapest 16-inch MacBook Pro costs $6,000. Very unaffordable for a country where the GDP per capita is $7,000: just wonder how many 16-inch Pros would be sold in the U.S. if they cost $58,500 and up.
Many people will still buy iPhones and Macs and iPads from the U.S. and have them delivered via smugglers to avoid paying the hefty tax charged by Brazilian authorities. Still, not many people do this. Market share is low.
As for computers, people use Windows PCs, especially laptops. There are Windows laptops sold for as low as $350, and some better ones for $500 and up. There are some gamer laptops available for $1,000, and the Dell XPS 13 starts at $2,100 with an 11th gen i7 Intel processor, 16 GB RAM, and 1 TB SSD (a similar specced MacBook Air, albeit with the M1 processor, sells for a much higher $5,200).
And people are not generally replacing Windows PCs for Chromebooks. Most of them are sold for $300-$500. Chromebooks are gaining some market due to the low price, but usually for people who want a second device or want something for children to use online at school. This is because, although cheaper than Windows PCs, Chromebooks are much more limited and do not perform the same tasks.
There are some fine Windows PCs that can run anything and still do not cost a fortune. A Dell Inspiron with an 11th gen i5 processor and a 256 GB NVMe SSD costs some $800. The build quality is not great, nor is the screen, but it not only gets the work done as it is pretty fast running Windows and Office.
So, I think Windows will keep the lion's share. Macs may grow a little bit, but they are limited by price. Chromebooks may grow a little as well due to being cheap, but they are limited by functionality.
They may have the option of buying refurbished in the U.S. Apple does not sell refurbished laptops in Brazil and I suppose it does not sell them in many other markets as well.