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Macbook Pro 16' 2020 mid refresh?

Late 2019 16" came out less than 2 months ago.

The next upgrade would be as early as August 2020 to November 2020 for a mid 2020 or late 2020 release possibly with an iPhone chip.

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Or AMD-based.

Here’s why a MacBook Pro with AMD’s new Ryzen 4 chips would be amazing

Ever since it switched from PowerPC chips, Apple has stuck with Intel processors in its Macs. But at CES 2020, AMD showed why it’s time for Apple to finally make the switch and drop Intel’s delay-prone CPUs for good. With the Ryzen 4000-series chips, the MacBook Pro 13 could reach new heights.
www.digitaltrends.com

iandk said:
Oh boy, this is the last thing I want to read after getting the 16".
Don't want another update in 3 months.
Click to expand...
 
Do you need it? If yes, buy it. If not, prevaricate.

My 16" brought me:
  • 64Gb of RAM -- now my VM's work so much faster
  • 8 CPUs -- VMs are happy, so are other applications
  • 4Tb of SSD -- now I can fit all the crap I need to carry around with me, including at least 5 tracks from my progressive rock collection
So it's great. That Apple may give us 5% improvements in speed would make sod all difference given the above.

Oh, and to balance that, the 16" forces you to use that crappy Catalina OS which has more bugs than an anthill. Delaying your purchase would mean you don't have to suffer like we do.
 
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5600/5700 are way above Apple's comfort level for GPU power draw. Not to say it couldn't be stuck in a machine not much bigger or heavier than the 16" (Razer Blade Studio isn't much heavier, and it can carry a GeForce 2080 or its close relative the Quadro 5000).

Let's look at the compromises in the Blade Studio...

Stuck with a 6-core CPU which can't sustain much over 2.6 GHz under full load, due to thermals. The 16" MacBook Pro not only has an 8-core CPU, it can run all 8 cores at around 3.15 GHz for hours. Between the cores and the full-load speed, that's a good 30% CPU power difference.

3-5 hour maximum battery life running just Word, Firefox and Outlook - MBP 16" will get 11+ hours in the same light load. Part of that is the Mac's power management, while part of it is OS-based (no Windows laptop with a 45W CPU comes close to the Mac's battery life, and that includes the Mac itself running Boot Camp).

2 TB drive limit (single NVMe slot).

Yes, you can get a bigger GPU in a compact laptop, but there will be significant consequences. Depending on what you're doing, they may or may not outweigh the GPU - Apple has decided that they prefer a well-rounded design with a midrange GPU.
 
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Is Comet Lake guaranteed to come with Wifi 6? If so, that's a noticeable upgrade (on top of +11% CPU speeds)!
 
AustinIllini said:
Might be a processor update.

It's really tough to tell anymore because they announce Macs almost at random now.

I could see them releasing a new 13-14" MacBook Pro at or before WWDC. We're all just guessing.
Click to expand...

Yeah there’s no logic behind it all really
 
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The previous year's refreshed MBPs were in June, July, and as early as May. My best guess is the 16" refresh around the same 3 month timeframe.

Question is how big of a bump the refresh will be...
 
There really isn't anything "new" to update with, at least worth while. Sure, there is the RX 5600m coming out they could use, but that chip has a shader count of 2308, up from 1404 in the current 16" 5500m. And just for reference, the current 5500m has a starting TDP of 60-80w and can go as high as 105w, while a 5600m could probably go as high as 130-150w. So adding in a AMD 5600m that has a 1000 more shaders... where is that extra heat going to go?

As for the CPU's, again Intel hasn't changed much. They are releasing 10th gen i9 chips, and while Intel has stated they will boost to 5ghz, these are still 8 core chips. So same core count, same chip, just higher boost speeds, which is only going to increase the TDP a lot more. Apple isn't redesigning the heatsink so something has to give if you add in the 5600m or the 10th gen i9... Maybe we'll see 5ghz boost speeds for a fraction of a second. Anyways... not worth it IMO... stick to the 9th gen until Intel has something better, or go with AMD.

As for other upgrades... what others have said, probably a move to Mini-IPS technology, but that won't happen until late fall. Better webcam, finally.

If Apple could shink the size of the motherboard 10-15%, they could use that space to increase the heatsink again, making the RX 5600m a viable option while maintaining the TDP and heat.
Wishful thinking. Or... maybe go with some form of a vapor chamber cooling solution.
 
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Apple used to have very same problem with their PowerPC chips.

They couldnt keep up with the performance/watt targets of Apple.

This prompted them to move from PowerPC to Intel chips.

I wonder when will Apple switch to AMD or even their iPhone SoC.

AMD's has Intel beat with being first to PCIe 4.0. This allows for data throughput of 32GB/s vs PCIe 3.0's limit of 16GB/s.
 
Hexley said:
Apple used to have very same problem with their PowerPC chips.

They couldnt keep up with the performance/watt targets of Apple.

This prompted them to move from PowerPC to Intel chips.

I wonder when will Apple switch to AMD or even their iPhone SoC.

AMD's has Intel beat with being first to PCIe 4.0. This allows for data throughput of 32GB/s vs PCIe 3.0's limit of 16GB/s.
Click to expand...

SoC, not anytime soon... Even 6 months from now would probably tick off people who dropped over 10k on the new Mac Pro. It may happen, but not for a few years is my guess. That is a huge transition, and I can't imagine them doing this so soon after releasing huge $$ 16" MBP and MP.
The more likely thing to happen is the move to AMD, but this also comes with possible issues. For one AMD may not be able to provide Apple with the quantity they need, on top of filling desktop CPU orders, and GPU orders. Since AMD only uses TSMC afaik. Mind you, if AMD secured a CPU deal with Apple, it's not entirely out of the realm to think Apple could help provide AMD a solution for manufacturing. Anyways, this seems more likely now that AMD has the 8 core 16 thread part, which is only 15w! Using a 15w 8 core part may also give Apple the TDP headroom to stick the RX 5600m into the 16" MBP.

Exciting times, and we'll probably have our answers soon enough. I can't see Apple moving to Intel's 10th Gen, there is nothing being offered except 5ghz boost speeds, although even the redesigned cooling solution on the 16" can't sustain boost clocks of the 9th gen so... can't see the benefit of sticking a 5ghz part into the MBP. And definitely can't use the RX 5600m as per the already strained TDP headroom. So something has to give... and that'll probably be a CPU that uses less TDP, be it AMD or Apple's own SoC.
 
fandy said:
Will there be a likely refresh in July like with past models? I'm going to buy one in April and it would suck if 2 months later they released a new version!
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If someone needs it now then I think its a great machine. But I returned it because it seems like its gong to be a short refresh wait on this one.

- 720p webcam
- mid-life processor
- gpu update
- screen tech
- wifi 6

I don't mean to be nitpicky but I plan on using this for a while so Im willing to wait a few months to see what's coming next.
 
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urkel said:
- 720p webcam
- mid-life processor
- gpu update
- screen tech
- wifi 6

I don't mean to be nitpicky but I plan on using this for a while so Im willing to wait a few months to see what's coming next.
Click to expand...

It'll be a much longer wait then a few month imo.

- 720p webcam possibly, but they won't update just for this, so it could be a while.
- mid-life processor Intel literally has nothing they can update the Macbooks with. The 10th Gen i9 is still 14nm albeit +++++, it's still an 8 core part, and the boost clocks can't be sustained with the current thermal solution.
- gpu update AMD has nothing new to offer (yet), at least nothing that Apple can keep cool again using the current thermal solution.
- screen tech Mini IPS will come this year, but estimates peg it in fall.
- wifi 6 Very likely, but we won't see it until the CPU / GPU are updated.

The only way I see the 16" being updated within before mid 2020 is if Apple goes with AMD and uses the 4800U - 8 core 15w chip, or some custom variant.
 
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urkel said:
If someone needs it now then I think its a great machine. But I returned it because it seems like its gong to be a short refresh wait on this one.

- 720p webcam
- mid-life processor
- gpu update
- screen tech
- wifi 6

I don't mean to be nitpicky but I plan on using this for a while so Im willing to wait a few months to see what's coming next.
Click to expand...

In a few months you will be none the wiser. There's no way there's a refresh coming with all those updates just a few months after releasing a brand new model and form factor. The very earliest update will come in late 2020.
 
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So if somebody needs a MBP now, it is better to get a high end model (i9 2.4, 32-64GB RAM, 2TB SSD and 8GB vram) and change machine about 3-5 years later with new chassis, wifi 6 support and better performance components? I think Apple only keeps components for repairing for 7 years, at least in the past. Don’t know now.
 
I think that's a great strategy, and I've had one just like that (4 TB SSD) for the past month... Best notebook I've ever used.

Here's what I think the new one is likely to have...

Processor: yes (VERY minor update) The current 9980 HK has a 2.4 GHz base (realistically about 3.15 GHz base - it'll maintain 3.15 fo hours under 100% all-core load, assuming the GPU isn't also loaded) with a 5.0 GHz turbo (I've never seen anything over 4.6 or so). The successor might run about 2.5-2.6 GHz base with a 5.1 or 5.2 GHz turbo? Unless they make power efficiency improvements, it'll still be realistically 3.15/4.6 GHz, because that's what this design can cool (note: that's VERY impressive for a laptop).

GPU: nope - Apple was the launch customer for the 5300/5500 GPUs in November - AMD won't have a refresh for quite a while, and Apple won't make the compromises in other areas to squeeze a 5600 or 5700 in.

Screen tech: nope - that's a "mid-life kicker" type update (something like a couple years after the redesign). If Apple puts a Mini LED screen in anything this year, it'll be an ultralight machine with a much smaller display.

Webcam: sure- if they manage to source a 1080p webcam that fits in the same hole, they'll be happy to use it. They won't redesign the lid to fit a physically larger webcam...

WiFi 6: I think it's part of Comet Lake, so very possible. They won't go out of their way to get it, but they'll use it if it's included on the chips they're using.
 
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In another thread, some members mentioned that even we have laptops with wifi6 like the Thinkpads, we cannot use the technology widely and cheaper due to lack of infrastructure. So maybe it will be widely used 3 or 4 years later?
 
darkmatter343 said:
It'll be a much longer wait then a few month imo.

- 720p webcam possibly, but they won't update just for this, so it could be a while.
- mid-life processor Intel literally has nothing they can update the Macbooks with. The 10th Gen i9 is still 14nm albeit +++++, it's still an 8 core part, and the boost clocks can't be sustained with the current thermal solution.
- gpu update AMD has nothing new to offer (yet), at least nothing that Apple can keep cool again using the current thermal solution.
- screen tech Mini IPS will come this year, but estimates peg it in fall.
- wifi 6 Very likely, but we won't see it until the CPU / GPU are updated.

The only way I see the 16" being updated within before mid 2020 is if Apple goes with AMD and uses the 4800U - 8 core 15w chip, or some custom variant.
Click to expand...
Excellent advice. Sounds like now's the best time to buy then.
 
hajime said:
In another thread, some members mentioned that even we have laptops with wifi6 like the Thinkpads, we cannot use the technology widely and cheaper due to lack of infrastructure. So maybe it will be widely used 3 or 4 years later?
Click to expand...
It will only get more and more popular, but you can never have a fully future-proof laptop. There are always new features and upgrades and improvements in technology every year. If you want to hold on to a machine for 5 or 6 years, you have to be okay with using 5 or 6 year old technology. If you need the latest and greatest, you're going to upgrade your device more frequently.

The way I look at it, if the main complaints about this machine's features are the webcam and the Wifi card, it's a good time to buy. Those are not essential components to maximize, at least not for me. I never use the webcam, and I never feel hampered by the bandwidth of my Wifi signal for anything I do. Sure, it's always nice to be able to download stuff faster, but I can't take advantage of Wifi 6 now and I don't even know if it'll provide a significant benefit to me before I'm ready to upgrade again. In the meantime, there are more important features I need to consider, like having a keyboard that types one A instead of two or three when I press the A key.
 
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In fact if they do make it wifi6, it will almost certainly be slower out of the box (in a wifi 5 environment), since it's more likely to be 2x2 than 3x3. So if you're replacing your wifi 5 router with a wifi 6 router at the same time, it'll almost certainly be a decent upgrade. But if you're planning on retaining your wifi 5 infrastructure (and why wouldn't you, typically?) then you may see a speed reduction.

Which may not matter a great deal, it depends how you use your wifi.
 
Howard2k said:
In fact if they do make it wifi6, it will almost certainly be slower out of the box (in a wifi 5 environment), since it's more likely to be 2x2 than 3x3. So if you're replacing your wifi 5 router with a wifi 6 router at the same time, it'll almost certainly be a decent upgrade. But if you're planning on retaining your wifi 5 infrastructure (and why wouldn't you, typically?) then you may see a speed reduction.

Which may not matter a great deal, it depends how you use your wifi.
Click to expand...

When do we expect public wifi in McDonald's, Starbucks, TimHortons, shopping malls, etc. provide Wifi6? Probably not in two years?
 
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hajime said:
When do we expect public wifi in McDonald's, Starbucks, TimHortons, shopping malls, etc. provide Wifi6? Probably not in two years?
Click to expand...

No, very unlikely. Malls more likely than McDs and Timmy's, but still not that likely.
 
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The fantasy... a SIM slot in a MBP with 5G modem.

But then again you just 'hotspot' your iPhone (on 4G) which has the benefit of being able to move the phone to a better reception area.
 
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