I think people are wrong when they say Apple will want to kill the ODD now to force people to buy from iTunes or what not. One of the main selling points for iTunes has always been than you can burn a copy of the music you buy from them. Without an ODD, you wouldn't be able to do that. And people still use CDs! Most people use CDs in their cars still, just for one example.
"People can just buy externals." They won't. They'll just piss and moan that the new MBPs don't have optical drives like they should. And many will probably have to buy a PC instead.
MOST COMPUTER USERS ARE NOT UBER-NERDS, folks! Most computer users don't get all their tv shows from bittorrent and store their music on a Cloud. And some (many professionals, students) literally need ODDs for work.
Another false assumption that many here are making is that everyone who buys a MBP already owns a desktop computer. Maybe that was true once upon a time, but these days computers like the MBP a true desktop replacements, and many (most?) use them as such. So people want their MBPs to have everything they need.
Killing the ODD new would be one redesign too soon. Starting a phase-out, I could see. Do so by adding a 15" MBA. If all a buyer really cares about is mobility, then they'd have 3 sizes of MBA to choose from, and all the "Pro" users would still be happy.
You make some valid points. There's a bigger picture, though. And ultimately, whatever you or I as individual users (and since we're both regular MacRumors posters, let's assume we are at least in the upper 20% of technically aware consumers), our usage patterns are not necessarily relevant if they fall into what Apple perceives as the minority. While we can only speculate as to what Apple's ideas are, we can look at trends and precedents. I will attempt to respond to your points paragraph-by-paragraph below:
The idea of obsoleting the SuperDrive
specifically to kill of physical media is indeed absurd. However, Apple does not sell physical music, movies, or television shows. Therefore, assuming people buy CDs/DVDs specifically because they have an optical drive (which is a leap, IMO), Apple stands to make more money if iTunes becomes the preferred media marketplace for everyone who no longer buys disks. It is simply one additional reason Apple stands to gain from killing the ODD.
Most people when doing a cost-benefit analysis will probably not choose a) to completely switch computing platforms over a $79 (at worst) peripheral or b) decide to purchase a second machine specifically because of a $79 peripheral. Some consumers
will piss and moan and some
will consider purchasing a different machine, but cost is a major deciding factor. Ultimately, people considering a smaller form factor computer are probably less likely to balk over a $79 upcharge than an entirely different type of machine or - heaven forbid - a second computer.
I agree with your general premise, but again, this is overlooking what many would categorize as "mobile" vs "stationary" activity. I don't know anyone who rips TV shows or movies primarily while on the go. They do it at their desks.
I've seen little to suggest that people on these forums assume everyone has a second computer. Quite the opposite. But "desktop replacements" are called that for a reason. What computers people use as their main machine is totally their business, but it is a choice that they make. And if someone buys a machine designed for maximum portability to use as a desktop replacement, they must assume it will not be designed to meet a desktop's every capability.
This might actually happen, if they move forward similar to the great MacBook axing of 2010/2011. It would be a big win for consumers, who either can choose exactly what they want and/or ease themselves into the change ala a transition period. Whether Apple does this remains to be seen - they hate congesting their product lines - but I would not argue against it.