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I think they should focus on getting the best performance from each version, rather than drip-feeding them across ever-decreasing periods between ‘new’ releases.

Do you really think they have suddenly developed a whole bunch of brand new improvements in performance, only months after the previous release?

It just means potential customers are holding off new purchases, on the basis that the next new laptop they buy, will be old news 8 months later: “I was going to get the M4, but I can hold out a couple more years and get the M7…”
The M4 supports Thunderbolt 5, not to mention the much more capable neural engine enhancements along with memory bandwidth/GPU improvements. Another run of the mill chip update with improved thermals would be boring to wait for. Then we have the studio/pro debacle stuck on the M2? The just wait crowd expecting M4 by WWDC would think they are forgotten with a M5 barely a few months later. Sometimes it’s matters to get everyone on the same performance level, not hype a newer unknown into the mix. :apple::)
 
Things move so fast...
Doesn't feel like too long ago when I got the then new M1 Ultra.
Won't be able to upgrade this year, so it'll have to be 2026 for an M5 Ultra.
 
I think they should focus on getting the best performance from each version, rather than drip-feeding them across ever-decreasing periods between ‘new’ releases.

They're beating everything else on the market in the segment they compete in - what makes you think they're sandbagging??

CPUs are developed on 12 month cycles and stock takes time to manufacture. Yes, M5 is due to go to manufacturing NOW, M4 base was released in mid year 2024 and we're only 3-4 months away from mid year 2025. The design for m4 would have been finalised long before June 2024 - you think millions of CPUs just magically come into existence on release day? No, they are stockpiled for months.

Performance improvement is a combination of newer manufacturing processes (TSMC not apple) and said process enabling more transistors in same space. Which means better performance. M2 or M4 for example would not have been possible to build for a reasonable price on M1's manufacturing line.

No manufacturer is going to delay a product for YEARS to get "the best from each version" because you're just extending the cycle to some arbitrary end date. the date is 12 months. Get it done and get something better out there or lose to your competitors.

Apple has been doing 12 month cpu cycles since the first iPhone. Intel has been doing it since the 90s. This is not new. You're just getting more updated news about it these days - m5 isn't going to be out for months. I bet it would really break your brain to know they're probably at least halfway through m6 by now.


I really, really don't get this anti-progress thinking - where people seem to want processing improvement to stagnate for their ownership period. WTF?
 
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So my M1 Max MacBook Pro has 64GB memory and a 4 TB SDSD. My M1 Ultra has 128GB memory and 8TB SSD. They had nearly identical single core speeds so boot up time were nearly identical. That second "Max" processor and huge copper heat sink has lots more processing power and virtually no fan noise due to great thermal design.

My M1 laptop is now headed to my first son.

My M4 Max MaxBook Pro has 128GB of memory and a 8TB SSD. Boot times are probably twice as fast since the M4 series single core speed is nearly double that of the M1 series. The computing power of the M4 Max is close to the same numbers of the M1 Ultra but in a laptop format that can run off battery for more than a dozen hours under a load.

The M2 Ultra bumped memory to 192GB and I thought the hypothetical M3 Ultra would have had 256GB of memory and more cores but that remained vaporware.

So, I think the next model Ultra needs to have over the top specs to justify a much higher price. This computer is not aimed at Joe the home user but users doing major music and scientific and video work and where a $10,000 price is an incidental expense. One would be expecting 512GB of memory (or more) and perhaps parallel 8TB SSDs (or larger) to get blazingly fast read and write speeds for data and much more GPU capability.

All this crammed into a small portable enclosure (like the existing Mac Studio box) to be used on the job site.

Frankly, hauling around a hundred pound Mac Pro tower makes me tired even thinking about it.

I remember our company computer room in the early 1960s with false floor and thousands of feet of wiring under it to interconnect the multiple tape reels to an IBM computer. My M1 Ultra has more power it's box than we had in that air conditioned room.

I remember working in computer rooms that one had to go outside to talk because of all the blowers on the hard drives trying to keep dust particles off the platters. The CDC 300 MB drive had a I believe twelve discs in the cartridge and cost over $30,000. One had to have the maintenance program in case of a head crash. A friend in another company told be that a new drive came in and purchasing forgot the maintenance contract. The second day was a head crash and the repair was $30,000 or the cost of a new one....

I find it hard to fathom the compute power in my M4 Max laptop when I think back to my experiences over the years.
 
It makes no sense (at this point in Apple Silicon) to put the M4 Max in a Mac Studio to only 4 months later put an M5 Max into a MBP.

Furthermore, if TSMC really does get its 2nm process online in 2H of 2025, as they keep promising, I find it hard to believe that Apple would let Qualcomm, Nvidia, and Intel beat them to deploying TSMC's latest advancements.
Yeah, but this new yearly cadence of silicon updates makes it really hard to plan out updates to the Mac Studio and Mac Pro, if they don't upgrade with the rest of the product line on a yearly basis. Apple hasn't released any of their advanced/top tier SOCs ahead of time and has been linear about their progression. So its hard to see them doing a M5 Max in a Mac Studio/Mac Pro before them realizing the M5 in like a MacBook Air.

Sadly this means the life time of a Mac Studio/Mac Pro being on top regarding overall speed seems more limited than ever.

If anything, this should reinforce the idea of buying/upgrading for your needs only when the need is truly there. This cadence makes chasing the hardware specs generally even more unnecessary now than ever.
 
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It seems like they are iterating on these M series chips so quickly. It is crazy what this AI push is doing. M4’s introduction was unexpected and now we are looking at M5 in 6 months. My M3 Max MacBook Pro was cutting edge just 6 months ago when I got it. My wife has the M1 Pro MacBook Pro and that thing is still flexing its muscle and delighting her.

Given how well M1 still performs, I wonder how long Apple will support it with software updates. My kids inherited my 2019 MacBook Pro running Intel and upgraded to Sequoia in the fall just fine - albeit missing the M-series exclusive features.
 
M4 base was released in mid year 2024 and we're only 3-4 months away from mid year 2025.
The M4 MacBook Pro was released three months ago.

Bearing in mind this is an expensive product, I don’t think now is the time to be seeding rumours that it’s already been surpassed by a better model.

That’s just going to irritate anyone that’s just bought one (like me), and potentially delay a purchase from anyone that might have been thinking of doing the same.

But hey, what do I know about it? I’m not the owner of a multi-billion dollar company.
 
Gurman says so much at the same time and aggressively updates his rumors, and is often regurgitates what others are saying. So that when something happens he can claim to be right be cause his update from 5 min before the event was correct, and when looking at any of the times he published he can say he was right that day because one of the 40 statements was partially right.

If you look at things that Gurman "breaks" his record is extremely bad, and most of the things he gets right are probably something that someone in this forum probably said.

At some point he's going to predict fall iPad Pro updates, not because any source told him, but because it's on about an 18 month refresh cycle, and there is not news of anything that might disrupt the m5 yields. Or really shocking no one, new iPhones this fall.
 
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This annual upgrade came most likely from the auto industry. Some years the style really changed and the next year it was turn signals and rear brake light lenses. Once in awhile there might be a transmission or engine change but that was not an annual event.

In computers, the engine (computer chips) seems to be changing annually but the cases are on a multi year cycle.
 
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Can anyone update me please?

Is the M5 supposed to be an interesting hike up in tech from the M4 with key differences?
Or is it more of one of the other M series changes, where it's pretty much a light polish and tweak of the previous revision?
How are we supposed to know? It's not out yet. When it comes out and benchmarks get published, you will have your answer
 
This makes much more sense...

I don't know how the iPad can exploit all this power.
But on a Mac it's fairly easy, even on an Ultra chip.
 
Is the M5 supposed to be an interesting hike up in tech from the M4 with key differences?
It'll most likely have a ~20% better CPU and GPU speed.
Same node size.
Nothing breakthrough, but any speed improvement is welcome.

I think this is going to be an amazing chip, and the Pro, Max and Ultra line even better.
 
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I’ve been waiting the best part of two decades for M5

It’s going to be great. My core solo from 2006 is going to feel ancient.

I’d put off upgrading as none of the subsequent processors, including M series, have been fast enough for my demanding workflow. This mainly involves scrolling through menus, resizing windows, and rebooting the system a few hundred times a day.
 
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It might get it before the MacBook Air gets the M4.
Well, here's a non-Gurman rumor for you. MacBook Air will ship with M5 as soon as late April or early May, almost certainly prior to WWDC. I'm not just spit-balling here, I have a credible source telling me this.

EDIT> I know this is contrary to Gurman's claim that the Air will get M4 within the next month. But M5 is already in production, and initial yields are going to be larger than what we had with the ramp up of M4 due to using the same process here. They're going to stuff the M5 in the Air first, as they did with the M4 in the iPad Pro last year. And the way they did the M3 in the Air first 2 years ago.

I'm not convinced iPad Pro will get the M5 update early next year. Or even at all. I bet they don't do another iPad Pro update until they have M6 or whatever running on the 2.x nm process. M5 should integrate some process features for the upping 2nm but will still be N3P based. However, we don't know any of that for sure, Apple & TSMC are being very secretive.
 
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I hope the mac mini will get updated soon and not wait for years like for the last upgrade.
 
I actually think this would make sense- to lead with M5 MAX & ULTRA instead of saving ULTRA for last in a line. As an ULTRA owner, I would not do it again, knowing that Mnext MAX is no more than 6 months away and is likely to be about as powerful and cost substantially less. IMO: the (up to) 6 months as "king" is not worth it.

However, flip the apparent release schedule slots of BASE vs. ULTRA and that seemingly fixes everything, including maximizing profit for Apple too. MAX & ULTRA first, PRO & MAX in the usual October slot, BASE the following spring. In this flip, one could confidently pay maximum (revenue & profit) for an ULTRA, knowing they have at least a year (maybe even 1.5 years) of perceiving their Mac is most powerful Mac. Bread & Butter MBpros, etc launch on the very same Fall schedule as they do now, so no effect on them. Lowest price (and presumably lower profit) BASE Macs roll out last.

Among other things, this creates the natural pressure to pay up for a higher tier chip (and thus more profit per unit sold for Apple) vs. waiting around for the "bargain" Macs... which would then be the ones bumping into the impending Mnext release speculation. As is, BASE first facilitates "bigger number" rationale further fueled by cheaper pricing for BASE Macs. In other words, for a few months, cheapest price buyers can have the next generation number and still be on "latest generation" (number) for the longest time while other, pricier Macs only step up to the same number... or linger 2 numbers behind.

Speaking just for myself: I would never buy ULTRA again based upon the reality that Mnext no more than about 6 months away is likely to be about as powerful and perhaps more in select ways. So all the extra profit realized from me with that ULTRA purchase will not be realized again without ULTRA owning the crown for longer than a half year or less. No, that is not a call to delay launches at all- just consider flipping the releases around. And no, that should have little-to-no effect on the all-important Fall releases which could still hit at the exact same time.

Presumably, ULTRA is not able to be built first and BASE must come first, then PRO/MAX and lastly ULTRA. But whether that's technical limitations or just how it's been done so far is the big question. It seems Apple could target ULTRA first and then the rest would be engineering derivatives of it over the next year... instead of starting with BASE and building up to ULTRA over the same period of time.

And yes, I know well the counterpoint about market share to try to make sense of the "as is" schedule. I don't know that market share would change much with this concept either... but average profit per unit sold might go up and that seems all-important to modern Apple. 💰💰💰

For example, if guy who might typically buy MBair can't stand the wait for BASE, perhaps they move sooner to MBpro to get "latest chip power" and thus deliver greater revenue & profit for Apple. Maybe guy who might typically buy a Mini is pulled up to a MAX or even ULTRA Studio vs. waiting until the end of a generation to still buy Mini. Etc.
I'm wondering if they can't do this because the Ultra is trickier to make, such that it's better for TSMC and Apple to first produce the Pro/Max chips, and then take the experience they gained from those and apply it to make the Ultra. Yes, the Ultra's design may be finalized at the same time, or soon after, that of the Pro/Max. But there's design, and then there's commerical production.
 
That's the common argument- that ULTRA waits because it's hardest to make and/or arguments about yields due to its relative size. But the apparent pattern of releases that many keep trying to pin down seems to keep jumping around anyway, so the key support of that argument is only that's how it's been done so far... in only TWO iterations of ULTRA chip production. A third ULTRA rollout could upend any schedule... just like M4 popping up in an iPad first wrecked all expectations of the apparent pattern of releases... again.

Where ULTRA is sold- Studio & Pro- are NOT high volume Macs, so it's not like Apple would have to tie up production for long to make enough to likely fulfill all orders of those. Then retool for MAX/PRO production and eventually get to BASE (if they can't afford additional lines to be making the other tiers at the same time).

They still sell just as many Macs to people wanting to own a Mac. However, they might pull some people up to higher-priced Macs because they can't stand to wait for the BASE releases last in the cycle to get the new "number" chip. So that's same total volume of units but perhaps more revenue & profit per unit sold.
 
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I don't think they should make Ultras
Volume is too low
The market has spoken


- TurbineSeaplane ... jaded iPhone Mini user
 
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@v3rlon

I was joking ... was hoping that would be clear by how I signed it

(iPhone Mini users are always getting told we are too niche for Apple to worry about)
 
That's the common argument- that ULTRA waits because it's hardest to make and/or arguments about yields due to its relative size. But the apparent pattern of releases that many keep trying to pin down seems to keep jumping around anyway, so the key support of that argument is only that's how it's been done so far... in only TWO iterations of ULTRA chip production. A third ULTRA rollout could upend any schedule... just like M4 popping up in an iPad first wrecked all expectations of the apparent pattern of releases... again.

Where ULTRA is sold- Studio & Pro- are NOT high volume Macs, so it's not like Apple would have to tie up production for long to make enough to likely fulfill all orders of those. Then retool for MAX/PRO production and eventually get to BASE (if they can't afford additional lines to be making the other tiers at the same time).

They still sell just as many Macs to people wanting to own a Mac. However, they might pull some people up to higher-priced Macs because they can't stand to wait for the BASE releases last in the cycle to get the new "number" chip. So that's same total volume of units but perhaps more revenue & profit per unit sold.
If they are going to delay the Ultra, I'd like to see them release based on chip rather than product. Thus release the the Max Studio the same time as the Max MBP, and release the Ultra Studio later. Would be easy for them to do if they're keeping the same case design.

But they won't do that, since it will hurt Ultra Studio sales, and isn't as "clean" as releasing both together, and Apple strongly prefers clean.

There may be something to the production argument about the Ultra--where the issue isn't low chip yields, but rather their ability to produce interconnected chips. I recall that, when one of the generations of the Studio came out, there were very long backorders (months) on all versions of the Ultra Studio, whie Max Studios were available much sooner.
 
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So since we're just imagining a new schedule, how about release:
  • ULTRA Studio & Pro first (around WWDC)
  • PRO/MAX MBs, MAX Studio, etc in the Fall (as mostly established now)
  • BASE/PRO MBair/Mini/iPads in the Spring
If you want the next generation, your first 2 choices are the "most powerful Macs ever" around WWDC... or you can wait for not quite as powerful PRO/MAX options in the Fall... or wait longer for least powerful of this "number" generation" in the following spring... when talk of the NEXT "number" will be ramping up.

It seems Apple could do that with no downselling consequence and maximize greater revenue & profit-per-unit sold opportunity as some of the BASE Mac buyers just can't stand to wait for them and thus buy a higher tier sooner.
 
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