I get your argument. Tim Cook definitely cares more about short-term profits than the long-term health of Apple as an innovation-focused company. You could be correct, but ultimately your own argument is for the upgrade, and Apple will want the person to upgrade from the 13” MBA to the 15” MBA. It’s a continuous upgrade path.While I'll hope with your guesses at pricing, I feel very different. My suspicions is Apple notices what seems to be accumulated, high(?) demand for this 15" Air and price it for (p)added profit gains. I won't be a bit surprised if the pricing results in a lot of "might as well get the pro" comments, much as we can see the same in select configs of latest Mini vs. Studio.
Later, when refreshed Pros are rolled out, Apple can "fix" the pricing mess by "improving" that pricing too, restoring the norm of Air models being generally priced lower than Pro models. For the summer though, I bet Air looks too expensive relative to current Pro pricing... triggering lots of "might as well get the pro" angst.
My guess on pricing of MBair 15" is "starting at $1799" and even that may be too conservative on my part.
Just because history has Air priced lower than Pro doesn't force Apple to keep doing that. This is- in essence- an entirely new product. Apple could price it at whatever price they think the market will bare. Since the Apple market seems able to bare ANY price (even rationalizing, and then evangelizing ANY price to each other), it could launch at any price. Cheerleaders will simply spin "inflation", "supply chain", etc as they have last few years, as part of helping the Corp convince others to pay up.
The drivers in this thinking:
Anyone thoroughly turned off at $1799+ could be directed towards the 13", 13"pro or refurbished/used 14"-16" pro.
- Apple just succeeded in kicking the computer, keyboard and mouse OUT of the iMac 27" but still got the same, full "starting at..." price range for that one. Why wouldn't that same Corp seek to "maximize" with this seemingly-high-demand Mac too?
- Consider high Mac Mini config pricing vs. low Mac Studio config pricing, illustrating that the Corp is not afraid to offer seemingly illogical pricing clashes... presumably to be "fixed" when the "improved" pricing in the next-gen Studio release. Why not that same (lucrative) "problem" here? 💰💰
But again, I'll hope with you at only $100-$200 more than 13" Air. Your logic makes sense through our consumer lenses but I'm not sure it looks the same through sell side eyes (and spreadsheets).
I really wouldn’t mind paying more money for products that actually innovate a bit. The damned notch on the display of the MacBooks bothers me even more than on the iPhones. Get rid of the notch, and I will pay an extra $250. Make a model that eliminates the camera and give me the full screen and I will pay $250 more. With the iPhone, give me a SIM card slot for travel as the world doesn’t have eSIM ready carriers. And eliminate the dynamic island and I will gladly pay an extra $250. It just keeps going on and on for me.
With Apple it always has to be a love hate situation. Love this and hate that. Anyways, end or rant and hope they don’t go Tim’s and your foreseen path of up charge far more than necessary.